Probably (IRE)
Probably (IRE) is 2 from 6, including a Group 2 win. The biggest win we hold: the Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Railway Stakes at Curragh (Jun 2012). Hasn't won since Jun 2012.
- 2–6Wins / Runs
- 33.3%Strike rate
- 3 (50%)Placed
- +3.50£1 level staken=6 at SP
- 1.52Fair A/E n=6 · 1.31 incl. margin
- 106Highest OR
- 25dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
No KTB Speed figures for this horse. The engine scores GB and Irish racing from Oct 2016; runs elsewhere, or earlier, have no figure.
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 0 figures from 0 runs · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since Jan 2008 (783 horses).
Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 91 | 10 | 11% | −0.2 | — |
| Good to Firm | 1,740 | 223 | 12.8% | +1.6 | — |
| Good | 2,499 | 248 | 9.9% | −1.3 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 1,089 | 120 | 11% | −0.2 | 1 from 1 |
| Soft | 1,733 | 224 | 12.9% | +1.7 | 0 from 2 |
| Heavy | 656 | 78 | 11.9% | +0.7 | 1 from 2 |
| Standard (AW) | 2,285 | 224 | 9.8% | −1.4 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 403 | 53 | 13.2% | +2 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 2,710 | 331 | 12.2% | +1 | 2 from 5 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2,715 | 312 | 11.5% | +0.3 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2,311 | 237 | 10.3% | −0.9 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1,270 | 134 | 10.6% | −0.6 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 533 | 51 | 9.6% | −1.6 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 130 | 8 | 6.2% | −5 | — |
| Over 3m | 22 | 1 | 4.5% | −6.7 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 22 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
6 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Canary Wharf (IRE) (2 wins).
The wins came over 1m1f–1m2f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Packing Joy (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canary Wharf (IRE) | 10 | 2 | 1m1½f–1m2f | Class 5 |
| Packing Joy (GB) | 4 | 1 | 1m1f | Class 4 |
| Hymenaios (IRE) | 7 | 1 | 1m2f | Class 5 |
| Suakin Dancer (IRE) | 8 | 0 | — | — |
| High Holborn (IRE) | 10 | 0 | — | — |
| Perhaps Forever (GB) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy | 2 | 1 | 50% | +6.00 |
| Soft | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.50 |
| Good | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +7.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curragh | 5 | 1 | 20% | +3.00 |
| Limerick | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.50 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 5 | 2 | 40% | +4.50 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Lordan | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| W J Lee | 2 | 2 | 100% | +7.50 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 12+15d | Curragh | Juddmonte Beresford Stakes (group 2) | 3/4 | hd | 9-6 | 103 | 83B | Wayne Lordan | 11/2 |
| 15 Sep 12+34d | Curragh | Goffs Vincent O'Brien Stakes (Registered As The National Stakes) (Group 1) | 4/7 | 1½ | 9-3 | 106 | 88A | Wayne Lordan | 12/1 |
| 12 Aug 12+43d | Curragh | Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (group 1) | 4/6 | ½ | 9-3 | 106 | 87B | Wayne Lordan | 5/4F |
| 30 Jun 12+14d | Curragh | Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Railway Stakes (group 2) | 1/6 | 9-3 | — | 105B | W J Lee | 7/1 | |
| 16 Jun 12+20d | Limerick | Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. (C & G) Maiden | 1/7 | 9-5 | — | 85A | W J Lee | 1/2F | |
| 27 May 12 | Curragh | Big Bad Bob European Breeders Fund (C & G) Maiden | 3/12 | 2¼ | 9-5 | — | 91A | Wayne Lordan | 16/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Probably (IRE) won?
- Probably (IRE) won 2 of 6 archived starts in 2012, a strike rate of 33.3%. Placed 3 times in total (50% of starts).
- Who trained Probably (IRE)?
- Probably (IRE) was trained by David Wachman on the most recent run on record, at Curragh on 30 September 2012.
- Who is Probably (IRE)'s sire?
- Probably (IRE) is by Danehill Dancer (IRE) out of Wedding Morn (IRE), whose sire is Sadler's Wells.
- What is Probably (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 103, from the run on 30 September 2012. The highest on record is 106.
- What is Probably (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Danehill Dancer (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since Jan 2008 (783 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.
- Who are Probably (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Wedding Morn (IRE), Probably (IRE) has 6 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Canary Wharf (IRE) (2). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Packing Joy (GB)). The wins came over 1m1f–1m2f. As at Oct 2026.