1:40 Gowran Park
An Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden over seven furlongs at Gowran Park on good ground brings together eleven juveniles with limited racecourse evidence between them. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Matavai Bay on 58, with the next four principals all rated between 52 and 46; several runners arrive with placed form or recent experience while others remain entirely unexposed. Trainer and jockey course statistics are modest for most, and the lack of firm pace information leaves the race shape open to interpretation.
How the race shapes up
With the overall pace shape rated unclear and confidence low, there is insufficient run-style data to predict with any certainty how the race will unfold. The field includes one confirmed held-up runner in Thelymitra, but most others have no defined preference shown so far. The key question is whether any horse can seize an uncontested position early or whether the race will develop into a more even, tactical affair in which positioning from the draw and late closing ability prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Matavai Bay KTB Selection58/100
- 2Ana Morello52/100
- 3Why Oh Why50/100
- 4Seaxburh47/100
- 5Spectrolyte46/100
- 6Diamonds And Dames45/100
- 7Old Joanie45/100
- 8Summer Sent You44/100
- 9Sonic Sabiha42/100
- 10Thelymitra42/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 11Sword Of State41/100
The contenders
Matavai Bay KTB Fit 58/100
Matavai Bay tops the KTB Fit ratings on 58 and is the clear selection. A daughter of an untried sire with no course win on record, she has the benefit of a wide draw in stall 10. Kevin Thomas Coleman holds an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.58, while Ben Coen brings a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.08 at the track, though the yard's combined record with the jockey stands at 0/8. The going is neutral with no data available. She is priced at 20/1 in a field of eleven and will need to overcome the yard's modest recent record with this jockey to justify her position at the head of the KTB numbers.
Ana Morello KTB Fit 52/100
Ana Morello is rated second on KTB Fit with a score of 52. By Bayside Boy, who has a 29% overall win rate from 45 runners, she represents a yard with a 1/8 record with this jockey. Diego Dias has a 0% strike rate at Gowran from ten previous runs with an A/E of 0, while jockey Diego Lima has no record at the track. She has no course win on record and is rated 33/1. The going looks suitable on pedigree and she is drawn widest in stall 11, which may prove either help or hindrance depending on how the race develops.
Why Oh Why KTB Fit 50/100
Why Oh Why sits on a KTB Fit of 50. By Nando Parrado, whose progeny have a 7% overall win rate from 287 runners, she is trained by James Dowling who has a 0% record from a single previous run at Gowran. Wesley Joyce, claiming three pounds, has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.01 from 101 rides. There is no course win on record and she is rated 20/1. The going appears to suit on pedigree and from a central draw in stall 5 she could be afforded a relatively straightforward passage if the race shape allows.
Seaxburh KTB Fit 47/100
Seaxburh arrives with the highest public profile and a KTB Fit of 47 after three runs that read 562. Joseph Patrick O'Brien and Dylan Browne McMonagle have a strong 19% strike rate together from 1611 rides with an A/E of 0.90. The trainer is 14% at Gowran with an A/E of 0.79, while the jockey is 17% with an A/E of 0.8. She has placed once from two starts on good ground and is now fitted with first-time headgear. Drawn in stall 1 she has the rail to help, though she has no previous course form. Rated evens in the field of eleven, she brings the most experience to the race.
Spectrolyte KTB Fit 46/100
Spectrolyte is rated 46 on KTB Fit. By State Of Rest, who has a modest 6% win rate from 32 runners, she is trained by Andrew Slattery who rides his own runners here. The yard is 8% at Gowran with an A/E of 0.84 and the jockey 10% with an A/E of 0.99. There is no course win on record and she is rated 15/2. The going looks suitable on pedigree and from stall 2 she should be able to obtain a prominent position if that is the chosen tactic. She represents a yard that knows its way around this venue even if overall statistics are not overwhelming.
The rest of the field
Diamonds And DamesKTB Fit 45/100
Diamonds And Dames is rated 45 on KTB Fit. Mrs John Harrington and Shane Foley have a solid record together and the yard is 11% at Gowran with an A/E of 0.83. By Churchill, whose progeny have an 11% win rate from 4899 runners, she has no course win on record and is rated 4/1.
Old JoanieKTB Fit 45/100
Old Joanie has recent form figures of 78 and a KTB Fit of 45. James M Barrett is 9% at Gowran with an A/E of 1.15, but Rory Mulligan is only 3% with an A/E of 0.37. She has two runs on good without placing and has no course form. Rated 17/2.
Summer Sent YouKTB Fit 44/100
Summer Sent You is rated 44 on KTB Fit. By Harry Angel, whose progeny have a 13% win rate from 2711 runners, she represents K J Condon who is 6% at Gowran with an A/E of 0.66. Chris Hayes is 6% at the track with an A/E of 0.53. No course win on record and rated 20/1.
Sonic SabihaKTB Fit 42/100
Sonic Sabiha has a KTB Fit of 42. By Phoenix Of Spain, whose progeny have a 13% win rate from 1231 runners, she is trained by David Marnane who is 4% at Gowran with an A/E of 0.5. Luke McAteer is 6% at the track with an A/E of 0.7. No course win on record and rated 18/1.
ThelymitraKTB Fit 42/100
Thelymitra has recent form of 6 and a KTB Fit of 42. Joseph Patrick O'Brien's runner is held up, usually producing her effort late. She has one run on good without placing, no course form, and is ridden by a 7lb claimer who is 0% from six rides at Gowran. Rated 18/1.
Sword Of StateKTB Fit 41/100
Sword Of State has a recent run of 7 and a KTB Fit of 41. Brendan W Duke is 2% at Gowran with an A/E of 0.3 and Rory Cleary is 5% with an A/E of 0.7. She has no runs on good ground so is unproven on the surface and has no course form. Rated 12/1.
KTB verdict
Matavai Bay is the KTB Selection at the head of a tight Fit rating cluster. She benefits from positive yard course statistics and a jockey who knows the track well, even if the immediate trainer-jockey combination has yet to strike. The honest case for her rests on the KTB numbers rating her best in a race where experience is patchy and the pace shape is hard to read. Seaxburh brings the most runs, first-time headgear and strong trainer-jockey figures, while Diamonds And Dames represents a powerful yard and could improve markedly for the step up in trip. Spectrolyte and Ana Morello are next in the KTB order and cannot be ruled out if the race develops in their favour.
KTB Selection Matavai Bay
This is the narrative read of the 1:40 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the most racecourse experience?
Seaxburh with three previous runs that read 562.
Which runners have already shown form on good ground?
Seaxburh has placed once from two starts on good, while Old Joanie has two runs on good without placing and Thelymitra has one run on good without placing.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Gowran Park among the principals?
Kevin Thomas Coleman with an 11% strike rate and A/E of 1.58 from 54 runs.
Which horse is the only one with a confirmed held-up run style?
Thelymitra, who is usually held up and produces her effort late.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Gowran Park in the field?
Dylan Browne McMonagle with a 17% strike rate and A/E of 0.8 from 206 rides.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Help and support: BeGambleAware.org and the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies