1:45 Ripon
This Class 2 Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes over a mile at Ripon brings together 13 juveniles, several of whom are stepping up in trip and class with limited prior experience. The KTB Fit ratings highlight Coral Cove as the clear top pick on the numbers, while the remainder of the field largely consists of lightly raced or modest performers with plenty of unknowns regarding the longer distance and the good ground. With most runners unproven at the track, the race promises to reveal more about several runners than their current form can show.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with no obvious front-runner, which should favour those able to race close to the pace or produce their effort from just off it. Several principals and field runners, including Bedwyr and Tommo's Queen, have shown a prominent run-style in limited evidence, while Coral Cove, Nosey Book and Temple Court tend to be held up. The key question will be whether the race develops into a sprint for the line or if those positioned handily can dictate matters in a steadily run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Coral Cove KTB Selection65/100Coral Cove has shown fair ability in two runs so far, finishing second on debut then winning a minor event over 7f.
- 2Scarlet Dynasty55/100Scarlet Dynasty has shown little in two runs to date and remains hard to assess with any confidence given the small sample.
- 3Bedwyr52/100Bedwyr has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then last.
- 4Old Oak51/100Old Oak has only one run to his name so the form picture remains thin.
- 5The First Drop47/100Lightly raced colt with just two runs behind him and a modest 8th last time.
- 6Special Operations47/100Lightly raced and with only one run to go on, Special Operations needs to improve markedly from a modest debut fourth.
- 7Tommo's Queen47/100Tommo's Queen showed fair pace on debut over 7f and now steps up to a trip that remains untested.
- 8Rule Of The Agency45/100Lightly raced with only two runs in the book so the form figures of 73 offer limited guidance.
- 9Dee's Mochafella44/100Dee's Mochafella is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background.
- 10Nosey Book43/100Nosey Book has shown ordinary form in two runs at shorter trips and now steps up to a new 1m trip with first-time headgear.
- 11London Rose42/100London Rose showed little at debut over 7f and now steps up to an untested 1m.
- 12Mad Jack41/100Mad Jack is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 13Temple Court32/100Temple Court is a modest performer on the balance of his four runs to date and has yet to show any real spark.
The contenders
Coral Cove KTB Fit 65/100
Coral Cove has shown fair ability in two runs so far, finishing second on debut then winning a minor event over 7f. The step up to 1m poses a fresh question and the lightly-raced profile means the going remains an unknown. James Owen has a solid 21% strike rate at Ripon while Jason Hart sits on a typical 14% record here. From draw 12 he is likely to be held up and produce his effort late in what looks a muddling, tactical race. Stepping up in class, he carries the KTB Selection tag on a Fit rating of 65 and recent form of 21.
Scarlet Dynasty KTB Fit 55/100
Scarlet Dynasty has shown little in two runs to date and remains hard to assess with any confidence given the small sample. The step up to 1m poses a fresh question while the yard holds a solid 16% strike rate at Ripon from 38 runs. The jockey has a 14% record here from just seven rides. With form figures of 88 and a KTB Fit of 55 she steps up in class from draw 4, where the muddling pace may not play to her strengths. Both ability and ground preference remain unclear at this stage.
Bedwyr KTB Fit 52/100
Bedwyr has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then last. The step up to a mile poses a fresh question while the small sample means both his ability and ground preference remain unclear. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at Ripon yet the jockey's 14% record here is more ordinary. Usually prominent, he could be well placed in a tactical race that lacks an obvious leader. Stepping up in class from draw 8 with form of 05, his KTB Fit stands at 52.
Old Oak KTB Fit 51/100
Old Oak has only one run to his name so the form picture remains thin. He steps up from 6f to a mile today which asks a fresh question of him. The Hannon yard has a solid 23% strike-rate at Ripon while Leavy is operating at 18% here from a small sample. With a KTB Fit of 51 he steps up in class from draw 11 and remains unproven on good ground. The race is likely to tell us considerably more about him than his debut effort alone.
The First Drop KTB Fit 47/100
The First Drop is a lightly raced colt with just two runs behind him and a modest 8th last time. Steps up from 7f to an untried 1m today which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a solid 16% strike rate at Ripon from 79 runs while the jockey is 0-6 at the track. With recent form of 28 and a KTB Fit of 47 he steps up in class from draw 10. The muddling pace shape may not play to his strengths given the limited evidence available.
The rest of the field
Special OperationsKTB Fit 47/100
Special Operations is lightly raced and with only one run to go on, needs to improve markedly from a modest debut fourth. The step up to a mile poses a fresh question while the small sample makes it impossible to judge how the good ground or this track will suit. Tim Easterby has a 10% strike rate here from a huge sample and Sean Kirrane is operating at 13% from 89 rides. KTB Fit is 47.
Tommo's QueenKTB Fit 47/100
Tommo's Queen showed fair pace on debut over 7f and now steps up to a trip that remains untested. The yard has an 11% strike rate at Ripon from 93 runs while Joanna Mason records a stronger 16% from 121 rides here. With only one run on the clock and low data confidence any firm conclusions would be premature. Usually prominent, her KTB Fit stands at 47.
Rule Of The AgencyKTB Fit 45/100
Rule Of The Agency is lightly raced with only two runs in the book so the form figures of 73 offer limited guidance. Steps up to 1m today having failed to trouble the judge when tried at the trip last time. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Ripon though the small sample means any assessment must be tentative. KTB Fit is 45.
Dee's MochafellaKTB Fit 44/100
Dee's Mochafella is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. The jockey has a solid 21% strike rate from 474 rides at Ripon. Trainer has only three runs at the track so that remains an unknown. KTB Fit is 44.
Nosey BookKTB Fit 43/100
Nosey Book has shown ordinary form in two runs at shorter trips and now steps up to a new 1m trip with first-time headgear. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Ripon from a huge sample while Fentiman sits on a 7% record here. With so little known about the colt the race will tell us far more than the formbook can at this stage. KTB Fit is 43.
London RoseKTB Fit 42/100
London Rose showed little at debut over 7f and now steps up to an untested 1m. The yard records a modest 8% strike rate at Ripon from a decent-sized sample while Cam Hardie is on a 3% strike rate here from even more rides. With only one run on the board and no meaningful going or course data the form read has to be treated with real caution. KTB Fit is 42.
Mad JackKTB Fit 41/100
Mad Jack is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The yard has yet to score from seven runners at Ripon and the jockey's record here is modest at 10% from 60 rides. Pedigree and sales background therefore carry most of the weight at this stage. KTB Fit is 41.
Temple CourtKTB Fit 32/100
Temple Court is a modest performer on the balance of his four runs to date and has yet to show any real spark. He steps up from 6f to an untested 1m today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Ripon while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Held up in a tactical race, his KTB Fit is 32.
KTB verdict
Coral Cove stands out on KTB ratings and brings the best recent form having won a minor event last time after a promising debut. The selection has shown fair ability and, although the step up to 1m and the good ground are unknowns, the Owen yard's record at Ripon offers encouragement. Main dangers include Old Oak, who represents a yard in form at the track, and those who can race prominently in a muddling pace such as Bedwyr and Tommo's Queen, though all carry significant question marks over the trip and their level of ability.
KTB Selection Coral Cove
This is the narrative read of the 1:45 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse does KTB identify as the selection and what is its Fit rating?
Coral Cove is the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 65.
How is the pace expected to unfold and which runners may benefit?
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with no obvious front-runner, which should suit those ridden close to the pace such as the prominent runners Bedwyr and Tommo's Queen.
What is Coral Cove's recent form and run-style?
Recent form is 21 and the run-style is held up, usually producing its effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ripon among those represented?
Richard Hannon has a 23% strike rate at Ripon from 74 runs with Old Oak.
How many runners are stepping up in class and what is the most common unknown?
The majority of the 13 runners are stepping up in class and the step up to 1m poses a fresh question for many, with most also unproven on good ground.
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