1:48 Navan
This Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden over 5f180y at Navan on good to firm ground brings together 18 two-year-olds with limited experience between them. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Run Johnny Run on 58, with the next four principals all between 50 and 55, suggesting an open-looking heat where trainer and jockey course stats could prove influential. Several runners arrive with placed efforts or modest form figures, while others make their debut, and the majority remain unproven on fast ground.
How the race shapes up
With a large field and a mix of run-styles, the pace shape points to a contested early gallop, likely led or contested from the lower draws. Arrowstock from stall three and several others with forward profiles should ensure a strong pace, while those drawn high such as Run Johnny Run, No Time Faults and Just One Show may have to work to find a position. The key question is whether the race will fragment in the closing stages or if a prominent runner can maintain the advantage on this stiff finish.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Run Johnny Run KTB Selection58/100
- 2Revelator55/100
- 3Eastern Queen53/100
- 4Arrowstock50/100
- 5No Time Faults50/100
- 6Shesthedevil48/100
- 7Docks48/100
- 8Chiquitita Bee47/100
- 9Candle Glow47/100
- 10Thatsanotherstory46/100
- 11Just One Show46/100
- 12Eighteenth Smiles45/100
- 13Annie Batt45/100
- 14Lucy's Promise44/100
- 15The Green Helmet44/100
- 16Panhandle43/100
- 17I Ready42/100
- 18The Pipeman41/100
The contenders
Run Johnny Run KTB Fit 58/100
Run Johnny Run is the KTB Selection. By Coulsty, who has a 10% overall win rate from 1312 runners, this two-year-old has no course win on record but is drawn in stall 14. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.72 from 52 runs, while the jockey posts a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.05 from 99 rides. KTB rates the colt 58 on Fit, the highest in the field, and while the market read shows 66/1 in a field of 18 the selection is expected to be competitive on these figures.
Revelator KTB Fit 55/100
Revelator has shown ability with a seventh on debut and arrives with a KTB Fit of 55. The trainer has a strong 10% strike rate at Navan backed by an A/E of 3.07 from only 10 runs, though the jockey is on a 6% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.7 from 128 rides. Unproven on good to firm having had no previous runs on the surface, this two-year-old has no course form on record. From draw 11 the run-style should see him involved in the early fractions in what looks a suitable race on pedigree and trainer figures.
Eastern Queen KTB Fit 53/100
Eastern Queen finished fifth on her only start and holds a KTB Fit of 53. The trainer boasts a 23% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.86 from 13 runs, giving this combination clear course appeal even if the jockey is on a 4% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.59 from 24 rides. Unproven on good to firm, she has no course form on record. Drawn in 13, her run-style suggests she will be handy early, and the placed form marks her down as one who can build on that effort.
Arrowstock KTB Fit 50/100
Arrowstock has the experience edge with two runs behind him, finishing sixth then fifth, and is rated 50 on KTB Fit. The trainer and jockey combination shows 9/67 (13%) with an A/E of 1.16 and positive LSP of +£0.58, while at Navan the trainer is 8% with an A/E of 1.00 from 12 runs and the jockey 9% with an A/E of 0.79 from 251 rides. Unproven on good to firm, he has course form having finished sixth here without placing. Drawn in 3, his run-style should put him prominently placed from the inside draw.
No Time Faults KTB Fit 50/100
No Time Faults showed some promise when sixth on debut and is rated exactly 50 on KTB Fit. The trainer and jockey partnership is in decent form with 4/27 (15%), an A/E of 2.06 and a healthy +£14.00 LSP. At Navan the trainer has a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.97 from 64 runs, while the jockey is on 5% with an A/E of 0.75 from 465 rides. Unproven on good to firm and with no course form, this two-year-old is drawn widest in 16. His run-style is expected to see him race prominently.
The rest of the field
ShesthedevilKTB Fit 48/100
Shesthedevil has form figures of 87 and is rated 48 on KTB Fit. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.17 from 53 runs while the jockey posts 7% with an A/E of 0.71 from 727 rides. Unproven on good to firm with no course form, this two-year-old is drawn in stall 1.
DocksKTB Fit 48/100
Docks has form figures of 90 and holds a KTB Fit of 48. The trainer and jockey show 5/59 (8%) with an A/E of 1.53 and positive LSP of +£32.50. At Navan the trainer is 6% with an A/E of 0.82 from 210 runs and the jockey 8% with an A/E of 1.00 from 325 rides. Unproven on good to firm and with no course form, he is drawn in 7.
Chiquitita BeeKTB Fit 47/100
Chiquitita Bee has form figures of 900, wears first-time headgear and is rated 47 on KTB Fit. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.68 from 305 runs while the jockey is 7% with an A/E of 0.98 from 82 rides. Unproven on good to firm with no course form, this two-year-old is drawn in 6.
Candle GlowKTB Fit 47/100
Candle Glow is by Cotai Glory, who has an 11% overall win rate from 3604 runners, wears first-time headgear and is rated 47 on KTB Fit. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.05 from 196 runs while the jockey is 7% with an A/E of 0.76 from 351 rides. She has no course win on record and is drawn in 9.
ThatsanotherstoryKTB Fit 46/100
Thatsanotherstory has form figures of 96 and is rated 46 on KTB Fit. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.04 from 328 runs while the jockey is on 3% with an A/E of 0.51 from 118 rides. Unproven on good to firm with no course form, this two-year-old is drawn in 10.
Just One ShowKTB Fit 46/100
Just One Show has a placed effort behind her with form figures including a 2 and is rated 46 on KTB Fit. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 2 runs while the jockey posts 11% with an A/E of 0.9 from 551 rides. Unproven on good to firm with no course form, she is drawn in 17.
Eighteenth SmilesKTB Fit 45/100
Eighteenth Smiles has form figures of 555 and is rated 45 on KTB Fit. The trainer and jockey show 285/1569 (18%) with an A/E of 0.88 and negative LSP of -£210.43. At Navan the trainer is 12% with an A/E of 0.79 from 500 runs and the jockey 12% with an A/E of 0.87 from 177 rides. Unproven on good to firm with no course form, this two-year-old is drawn in 8.
Annie BattKTB Fit 45/100
Annie Batt has a placed effort to her name with a 2 in her form and is rated 45 on KTB Fit. The trainer and jockey combination shows 122/1351 (9%) with an A/E of 0.87 and negative LSP of -£339.14. At Navan the trainer is 7% with an A/E of 0.76 from 189 runs and the jockey 5% with an A/E of 0.66 from 172 rides. Unproven on good to firm with no course form, she is drawn in 4.
Lucy's PromiseKTB Fit 44/100
Lucy's Promise has form figures of 07 and is rated 44 on KTB Fit. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.68 from 305 runs while the jockey is 5% with an A/E of 0.89 from 100 rides. Unproven on good to firm with no course form, this two-year-old is drawn in 18.
The Green HelmetKTB Fit 44/100
The Green Helmet is by Cotai Glory, who has an 11% overall win rate from 3604 runners, and is rated 44 on KTB Fit. The trainer and jockey show 46/325 (14%) with an A/E of 1.20 and negative LSP of -£10.29. At Navan the trainer is 7% with an A/E of 0.76 from 189 runs and the jockey 9% with an A/E of 0.77 from 571 rides. He has no course win on record and is drawn in 2.
PanhandleKTB Fit 43/100
Panhandle is by Nando Parrado, who has a 7% overall win rate from 269 runners, and is rated 43 on KTB Fit. The trainer and jockey show 79/856 (9%) with an A/E of 0.79 and negative LSP of -£252.97. At Navan the trainer is 9% with an A/E of 0.84 from 469 runs and the jockey 7% with an A/E of 0.77 from 438 rides. He has no course win on record and is drawn in 5.
I ReadyKTB Fit 42/100
I Ready has form figures of 65 and is rated 42 on KTB Fit. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.82 from 210 runs while the jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0 from 9 rides. Unproven on good to firm with no course form, this two-year-old is drawn in 12.
The PipemanKTB Fit 41/100
The Pipeman is by Cotai Glory, who has an 11% overall win rate from 3604 runners, and is rated 41 on KTB Fit. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 40 runs while the jockey is 8% with an A/E of 0.71 from 645 rides. He has no course win on record and is drawn in 15.
KTB verdict
Run Johnny Run is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings on 58 in a race where the principals are closely matched. His trainer's positive Navan A/E of 1.72 and the jockey's solid course record provide encouragement, and the selection looks to have the best blend of figures in an open maiden. Revelator, Eastern Queen and Arrowstock are the most obvious dangers on their placed efforts and trainer course stats, while No Time Faults cannot be entirely dismissed from his wide draw if the race sets up for a strong pace.
KTB Selection Run Johnny Run
This is the narrative read of the 1:48 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan among those represented?
John S O'Donoghue has a 23% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.86 from 13 runs.
How many of the 18 runners have previous course form at Navan?
Only Arrowstock has previous course form at Navan, where he finished sixth.
Which sire among those listed has the highest overall win rate on turf?
Cotai Glory has an 11% overall win rate from 3604 runners.
Who holds the best trainer and jockey combined record in the race?
Jack Foley and W J Lee show 2/5 (40%) for the trainer and jockey combination.
Which horse is the only one to have worn headgear previously or now?
Chiquitita Bee and Candle Glow both wear first-time headgear.
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