1:50 Downpatrick
This 14-runner Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle over 2m5f180y at Downpatrick on good ground features a mix of debutants, lightly-raced types and more exposed performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Urra Mass Rock heading the list on 64 despite zero racecourse experience, while several others sit in the low-to-mid 50s. Trainer and jockey course stats play a notable part, particularly for yards like Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins who have strong records at the track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a steady enough gallop with a blend of prominent runners and those who settle mid-division. Several horses have a track record of racing prominently or in mid-division, which should ensure a fair test. The key question is whether the longer trip will suit those stepping up markedly in distance, or if any of the more exposed types can finally put it all together in a maiden.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Urra Mass Rock KTB Selection64/100Urra Mass Rock makes his debut for a yard with a tiny sample at Downpatrick.
- 2Sound Judgement56/100Sound Judgement has shown ability in defeat on his last two starts and arrives off the back of a six-month break.
- 3I Can Find Em55/100I Can Find Em is a debutant whose bare form is unknown so the assessment rests on limited evidence from pedigree and sales background.
- 4Open Approach54/100Gordon Elliott has a solid 19% strike rate at Downpatrick from a huge sample of runners.
- 5Gainsville52/100Gainsville has shown steady placed form in his limited starts but finished a remote ninth on his most recent outing.
- 6Seekthisfairland52/100Seekthisfairland has shown little in three starts to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion.
- 7Lunar Majesty50/100Lunar Majesty is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 8Nevermindestranger45/100Nevermindestranger is a fair performer who has been well beaten on all six starts at Downpatrick including a fall and two pull-ups.
- 9Tribal Moon44/100Tribal Moon has been a modest performer through 19 career starts and was well beaten on his most recent outing over a much shorter 1m2f trip.
- 10Surfin Usa44/100Surfin Usa has shown some promise in two starts, finishing second on debut before a lesser effort last time.
- 11Texas Red44/100Texas Red has shown only modest form in four starts over shorter trips and steps up markedly in distance today.
- 12Majestic Horizon43/100Lightly raced 5-year-old with a win on debut but has finished third on both subsequent starts including here over shorter.
- 13Acheron41/100Acheron has shown very little in three completed starts over hurdles with two duck eggs this year and a fall the run before.
- 14Toor Idaho35/100Toor Idaho is a fair sort who has been out of form for some time with a string of pulled-up efforts.
The contenders
Urra Mass Rock KTB Fit 64/100
Urra Mass Rock is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings on 64 despite making his racecourse debut. The 5-year-old represents E Seymour, who has a 33% strike rate at Downpatrick from a small sample with an A/E of 1.92. Calum Hogan is aboard and boasts a 50% strike rate at the track from four rides with an A/E of 4.37. By Shirocco, he has an 11% overall win rate to call upon from pedigree, though the lack of any racecourse data means his ability remains entirely unknown. Connections will be hoping the sales background translates into something useful here.
Sound Judgement KTB Fit 56/100
Sound Judgement has shown ability in defeat on his last two starts and now returns from a six-month break. The step up in trip to 2m5f poses a fresh question for this 6-year-old. Gordon Elliott saddles him with a solid 19% strike rate at Downpatrick from 913 runs and an A/E of 0.9, while Josh Williamson brings a 20% strike rate at the track from 15 rides with an A/E of 1.27. He remains unproven on good ground. Recent form figures read /3P26- and he holds an official rating of 102.
I Can Find Em KTB Fit 55/100
I Can Find Em is a debutant whose bare form is unknown so the assessment rests on limited evidence from pedigree and sales background. The 5-year-old is by Court Cave, which has a 10% overall win rate from 7779 runners. Gary McGill has an 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from 37 runs with an A/E of 1.37, and Philip Donovan is 11% from 19 rides here with an A/E of 1.06. With data confidence low this remains very much an unknown quantity on its first start. Recent form is listed as 422- though as a debutant over hurdles that may reflect bumper efforts.
Open Approach KTB Fit 54/100
Open Approach has only a single run on the board so far and steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced 4-year-old. Gordon Elliott trains him with a 19% strike rate at Downpatrick from a huge sample and an A/E of 0.9. James Smith is in the saddle and is operating above expectations with an 18% strike rate from 34 rides at the track and an A/E of 1.43. He has one run on good ground with no win or place. The run-style is expected to see him race prominently.
Gainsville KTB Fit 52/100
Gainsville has shown steady placed form in his limited starts but finished a remote ninth on his most recent outing. He steps up in trip today to 2m5f which asks a fresh question of him. Henry De Bromhead holds a 16% strike rate at Downpatrick from 159 runs with an A/E of 0.87, while Patrick M O'Brien is 13% from 31 rides here with an A/E of 1.24. The 6-year-old remains unproven on good ground. Recent form figures read 22329- and he holds an official rating of 95.
The rest of the field
SeekthisfairlandKTB Fit 52/100
Seekthisfairland has shown little in three starts to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion. The step up from 2m to 2m5f today asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced 4-year-old. P J Rothwell has a modest 7% strike rate from 603 runs at Downpatrick while the small-sample jockey record for Thomas O'Connor prevents any firm view there.
Lunar MajestyKTB Fit 50/100
Lunar Majesty is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has shown fair form in his last three starts including a solid third at this trip and has course connections in his favour. C A Murphy has a 13% strike rate at Downpatrick from 47 runs while the 4lb claimer Ross Berry has had too few rides here to judge.
NevermindestrangerKTB Fit 45/100
Nevermindestranger is a fair performer who has been well beaten on all six starts at Downpatrick including a fall and two pull-ups. He steps up in trip today having shown only modest form over shorter distances and holds a placed effort from six runs on good ground without winning. Nigel Johnston is still seeking a first winner at the track from five runs while the claiming jockey Finn Brickley has a solid 25% strike rate here from eight rides.
Tribal MoonKTB Fit 44/100
Tribal Moon has been a modest performer through 19 career starts and was well beaten on his most recent outing over a much shorter 1m2f trip. He now steps up markedly in distance for the first time which asks a fresh question of him while the yard’s modest 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from a large sample suggests limited encouragement. The 5-year-old remains lightly exposed at this new trip and on good ground where he has shown some competitiveness in the past.
Surfin UsaKTB Fit 44/100
Surfin Usa has shown some promise in two starts, finishing second on debut before a lesser effort last time. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of him. Willie Mullins has a solid 26% strike rate at Downpatrick from 280 runs while Charlie O'Dwyer is still seeking his first winner from 10 rides here.
Texas RedKTB Fit 44/100
Texas Red has shown only modest form in four starts over shorter trips and steps up markedly in distance today. The move to 2m5f poses a fresh question as the horse remains lightly raced overall. P J Rothwell has a 7% strike rate from 603 runs at Downpatrick while jockey Shane O'Callaghan is 8% from 59 rides here.
Majestic HorizonKTB Fit 43/100
Majestic Horizon is a lightly raced 5-year-old with a win on debut but has finished third on both subsequent starts including here over shorter. The step up to 2m5f today asks a fresh question while the small sample means going suitability remains unknown. P J Rothwell records a 7% strike-rate from 603 runs at Downpatrick and the claiming jockey Kevin Healy has had too few rides here to judge.
AcheronKTB Fit 41/100
Acheron has shown very little in three completed starts over hurdles with two duck eggs this year and a fall the run before. The trip is a step up today and remains an unknown. John Joseph Hanlon has a modest 6% strike rate at Downpatrick from a big sample while Harry Sexton is still seeking his first winner here from 22 rides.
Toor IdahoKTB Fit 35/100
Toor Idaho is a fair sort who has been out of form for some time with a string of pulled-up efforts. He drops back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance in the past and has shown some competitiveness on good ground. The trainer has a poor record at Downpatrick while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
KTB verdict
Urra Mass Rock is the KTB Selection at the head of the Fit ratings. The 5-year-old brings no racecourse experience and the data available is too limited to form any clear view of his ability, so pedigree and sales background will have to do the talking. Sound Judgement, Open Approach and Gainsville all step up in trip and pose interesting questions, while Lunar Majesty brings the strongest recent form on paper. The race could easily fall to one of the lightly-raced types or a debutant if the selection fails to fire on his first start.
KTB Selection Urra Mass Rock
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Downpatrick in this field?
E Seymour has a 33% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 1.92 from three runs.
How many horses are stepping up markedly in trip?
Several including Sound Judgement, Open Approach, Gainsville, Seekthisfairland, Tribal Moon, Surfin Usa, Texas Red, Majestic Horizon and Acheron are all stepping up in distance.
Which jockey has performed best at Downpatrick relative to expectations?
Calum Hogan has a 50% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 4.37 from four rides.
Who has the most experience at this course?
Nevermindestranger has run six times at Downpatrick with figures of UR, 7th, PU, 9th, 8th and no win or place.
Which horse has the highest official rating among those with figures supplied?
Sound Judgement holds an official rating of 102.
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