1:50 York
A competitive 21-runner Class 4 apprentice handicap over 7f on good ground at York sets the scene for an open-looking renewal. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 54 and 63, underlining how little separates many of these fair performers on paper. Dropping in class is a theme for several, while wide draws and modest trainer records at the track add layers of complexity to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
With a mix of run-styles across a big field, the early pace is likely to be contested from the lower stalls, where Count Palatine, Leadman and Mister Sox can press forward. Several wide-drawn principals such as Our Havana, Sword and Great Dream will have to navigate traffic or race on the wing, making the race shape a key factor over this straight 7f. The central question is whether any of the higher-drawn horses can overcome their starting positions or if the race will be dominated by those closer to the rail.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Our Havana63/100Our Havana is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip but arrives in modest form after five runs without a place last season.
- 2Sword KTB Selection63/100Sword is a fair performer on his best days but has been largely out of form for some time and finished last of 20 over this course and distance on his most rece…
- 3Lir Speciale62/100Lir Speciale is a fair handicapper who has placed on both previous visits to York and arrives in reasonable form after two thirds this season.
- 4Great Dream62/100Fair performer who won over this trip last season but has been hit and miss since.
- 5Esherann54/100Esherann is a fair handicapper who has dropped in the weights after three modest efforts this year.
- 6Lord Bertie51/100Lord Bertie is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts among his last six starts.
- 7Count Palatine50/100Fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has looked out of sorts on his last three starts.
- 8Eligible48/100Eligible is a fair 10-year-old who knows his way around York having won here from six runs and arrives in reasonable form with a recent string of competitive ef…
- 9Leadman48/100Leadman is a fair sort who has shown his best at this track with a second from four runs and holds his form well enough judged on a solid 8620 sequence.
- 10Inspired48/100Inspired has been consistent without winning lately and ran creditably when fourth over this course and trip on his most recent visit.
- 11Quest For Fun46/100Quest For Fun is a fair performer who has won twice at York from 14 runs and also has three wins at this trip on his record.
- 12Wobwobwob45/100Fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from five runs.
- 13Feel The Need45/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from 15 runs and also has three wins at today's trip.
- 14Oriental Prince45/100Oriental Prince is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts after a solid second on his reappearance.
- 15Jannas Journey43/100Jannas Journey is a fair performer who has won five times over this trip.
- 16Mister Sox42/100Mister Sox is a fair handicapper who has been out of the frame on all six visits to this track and looks to face a stiff task from stall one.
- 17The Green Man41/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts but only one win from his last 49 starts.
- 18Criminal Shore41/100Criminal Shore is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win over 1m.
- 19Orne39/100Modest performer who has run four times at York without winning, his best effort a placed run on his penultimate start here.
- 20Native Honey39/100Modest performer with a patchy record and two wins in the last 17 starts.
- 21Tokyo Joe34/100Tokyo Joe is a modest performer who showed his best form when winning a weak 6f handicap last season.
The contenders
Our Havana KTB Fit 63/100
Our Havana is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip but arrives in modest form after five runs without a place last season. He has twice run poorly at York and is drawn wide in stall 16 today. The yard and jockey both hold a modest 8% strike rate here though the trainer's A/E of 1.31 hints at some profitability. Dropping in class is another factor in his favour while he has shown he can act on good ground with two wins from four starts. Overall the wide draw and recent lack of sparkle make this a stiff task from stall 16.
Sword KTB Fit 63/100
Sword is a fair performer on his best days but has been largely out of form for some time and finished last of 20 over this course and distance on his most recent visit. He drops back to a trip he has won at before and has placed three times from five runs on good ground so conditions should suit. The yard's modest 6% strike-rate at York and the wide draw in stall 19 add to the negatives. Recent form reads 0820-8, underlining a lack of spark, yet the drop in class offers a glimmer of hope. The 5lb claimer Olivia Haines takes the ride for a yard that has shown a positive A/E of 2.14 in this combination.
Lir Speciale KTB Fit 62/100
Lir Speciale is a fair handicapper who has placed on both previous visits to York and arrives in reasonable form after two thirds this season. Dropping back to 7f is a positive as he has four wins from 14 starts at the trip, though the wide draw in stall 14 will not help. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at York is offset by the jockey's strong 15% record from a small sample here. Recent form of 11-330 shows he is competitive at this level and his placed effort over course and distance last term adds encouragement. The combination of Brian Ellison and Shay Farmer has produced an A/E of 0.76 overall but the jockey's York figures stand out.
Great Dream KTB Fit 62/100
Great Dream is a fair performer who won over this trip last season but has been hit and miss since. Drops back from a mile while making his first start at York from a wide draw. Trainer and jockey both strike at 18% here with the latter showing strong A/E on his small sample. The William Haggas yard brings an A/E of 1.01 at the track from a huge sample while Harry Burns has an A/E of 2.36 from 11 rides. Recent form of 4193-6 suggests he retains ability and the return to 7f looks well judged, though the lack of course experience and wide stall 18 are clear negatives.
Esherann KTB Fit 54/100
Esherann is a fair handicapper who has dropped in the weights after three modest efforts this year. He has winning form on good ground and has been placed over today's 7f trip though he steps back from a mile last time. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at York on his first run here. Recent form reads 41-889 while the Declan Carroll stable posts a 6% strike rate at the track from 243 runs. He has shown he can handle good ground with two wins from seven starts and the drop in class may help him become more competitive.
The rest of the field
Lord BertieKTB Fit 51/100
Lord Bertie is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts among his last six starts. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over before though he is unproven at York where the trainer’s modest 7% strike rate from a huge sample suggests he finds it tough. The jockey is also winless from his six rides here while the horse has only placed once in six runs on good ground.
Count PalatineKTB Fit 50/100
Count Palatine is a fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has looked out of sorts on his last three starts. Only one run at this track and it was poor while the 3lb claimer is still seeking a first York winner from seven rides. Drops back to his winning trip today having been tried over a mile last time.
EligibleKTB Fit 48/100
Eligible is a fair 10-year-old who knows his way around York having won here from six runs and arrives in reasonable form with a recent string of competitive efforts. He drops back to 7f today after his last run over a mile and holds a solid record at the trip with seven wins from 29 starts though his record on good ground shows two places from five runs without a victory. The Easterby yard has a modest 5% strike rate from 119 runs at the track while apprentice Lewis Chalkley has had only three rides here which is too small a sample to judge.
LeadmanKTB Fit 48/100
Leadman is a fair sort who has shown his best at this track with a second from four runs and holds his form well enough judged on a solid 8620 sequence. He has won twice at 7f and has been competitive on good ground though he is yet to score on it. The yard's modest 7% strike-rate at York is a negative while the 5lb claimer is unproven here.
InspiredKTB Fit 48/100
Inspired has been consistent without winning lately and ran creditably when fourth over this course and trip on his most recent visit. He is a fair performer on the balance of his form and has shown he can handle this distance. The wide draw in stall 17 is a negative from a poor record for both trainer and jockey at York.
Quest For FunKTB Fit 46/100
Quest For Fun is a fair performer who has won twice at York from 14 runs and also has three wins at this trip on his record. He has been consistent enough of late with two placed efforts in his last three starts yet the yard's modest 6% strike rate at the track from over 2000 runs is a clear negative. The 5lb claimer has yet to trouble the judge from five rides here.
WobwobwobKTB Fit 45/100
Wobwobwob is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from five runs. Recent form is modest and the yard's record here is below par while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first York winner from ten rides. Placed just once from nine starts on good ground so the surface is no guarantee either.
Feel The NeedKTB Fit 45/100
Feel The Need is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from 15 runs and also has three wins at today's trip. Recent form is patchy with a pair of placed efforts this year but he tends to find a few too good at this level. Trainer's York record is respectable while the 3lb claimer is too lightly raced here to assess.
Oriental PrinceKTB Fit 45/100
Oriental Prince is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts after a solid second on his reappearance. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before though his record on good ground is poor with no wins or places from five runs. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at York while Amie Waugh is 1-25 here.
Jannas JourneyKTB Fit 43/100
Jannas Journey is a fair performer who has won five times over this trip. She has run well on good ground in the past but her recent form is modest and she was well held when sixth on her only visit to York. The yard's modest strike rate here adds little confidence.
Mister SoxKTB Fit 42/100
Mister Sox is a fair handicapper who has been out of the frame on all six visits to this track and looks to face a stiff task from stall one. He steps up to 7f having last run over 6f and owns a modest record at the trip with just one win from 16 attempts. The yard's 6% strike rate from over 2000 runs at York and the 3lb claimer's 0% record from 14 rides here add to the negatives.
The Green ManKTB Fit 41/100
The Green Man is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts but only one win from his last 49 starts. He has won over this trip and at York itself though his record here reads just 1-5 overall. Trainer's 2% strike-rate from 92 runs at the track is a clear negative while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
Criminal ShoreKTB Fit 41/100
Criminal Shore is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win over 1m. He drops back to 7f today where he is 0-7 and that looks a potential negative given his record at the trip. The yard has a modest 7% strike-rate at York while this is the jockey's first ride at the track.
OrneKTB Fit 39/100
Orne is a modest performer who has run four times at York without winning, his best effort a placed run on his penultimate start here. He has won twice at this trip but is 0-8 on good ground and the yard has a poor record at the track. Stall 13 adds another negative.
Native HoneyKTB Fit 39/100
Native Honey is a modest performer with a patchy record and two wins in the last 17 starts. Steps up from 6f to a trip she has won over twice from five attempts though she has only one win from nine runs on good ground. First run at York for a yard with a 5% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 4%.
Tokyo JoeKTB Fit 34/100
Tokyo Joe is a modest performer who showed his best form when winning a weak 6f handicap last season. He has never won or placed on good ground from just two attempts and steps up to 7f for the first time today having failed to trouble the judge in five previous tries at the distance. The yard holds a 10% strike rate at York while the 3lb claimer is yet to score from six rides here.
KTB verdict
Sword is the KTB Selection in a race where several wide draws and modest course records make the outcome hard to pin down. He is a fair performer on his best days who drops to a trip he has won over before and should appreciate the good ground having placed three times from five runs on it. The negatives of a wide draw in stall 19 and the yard's modest record at York are acknowledged yet his overall profile still edges him ahead. Main dangers include Lir Speciale, who has placed both times at York and looks well suited by the drop to 7f, and Great Dream, who brings strong trainer and jockey figures at the track despite his wide berth. Our Havana and Esherann round out the principals but both face stiff tasks from their respective stalls and recent form.
KTB Selection Sword
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest jockey record at York among the principals?
Lir Speciale, with the jockey holding a 15% strike rate at York and an A/E of 1.53 from 13 rides.
How many wins has Eligible recorded at York?
Eligible has won once at York from six runs.
What is the trainer's strike rate at York for the yard of Quest For Fun?
Tim Easterby has a 6% strike rate at York from 2036 runs.
Which horse has won twice at this track from 15 runs?
Feel The Need has won twice at York from 15 runs.
What is Mister Sox's record at York across all visits?
Mister Sox has been out of the frame on all six visits to York.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies