1:50 York
The Sky Bet Strensall Stakes is a competitive Group 3 over an extended mile at York on good to soft ground, featuring a field of 13 smart performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched across the principals, with Persica narrowly heading the numbers at 68, followed closely by Damysus on 67, Jonquil on 66, Hankelow on 65 and Geryon on 63. Several runners step up in class or face questions on trip, ground or course, while the overall standard remains high for the time of year.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the line-up, including Hankelow and Point Lynas, which sets up a race that could collapse late and play to those racing from off the pace. The majority of the principals, including the selection Persica, Damysus, Jonquil and Geryon, are hold-up types who will look to benefit from the anticipated strong gallop. The key question is whether the leaders can sustain their effort or if the race will fall apart in the final furlong, handing the advantage to patient riders.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Persica KTB Selection68/100Persica is a smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins in his last five starts.
- 2Damysus67/100Smart performer who has finished placed on both previous visits to this track.
- 3Jonquil66/100Smart performer who has mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts.
- 4Hankelow65/100Smart performer who won on his only previous visit to York.
- 5Geryon63/100Smart 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placed efforts over today's trip.
- 6Archivist57/100Smart performer who has already won over this track.
- 7Saber Strike57/100Smart performer who has shown strong form this season with a win and two placed efforts from five starts.
- 8Point Lynas56/100Smart performer who has won twice from six runs at York and arrives in decent nick judged on his recent placed efforts.
- 9Ridari55/100Smart performer who has mixed form this year but ran creditably when third in a strong handicap at Newmarket last time.
- 10Dividend54/100Smart performer who has won at today's trip but has been well below form on both previous visits to York.
- 11Naqeeb53/100Smart performer who has run respectably at this track on several occasions without ever threatening to win.
- 12Expanded53/100Smart performer who has finished a close second on both starts this year after a lengthy break.
- 13King Of Earth51/100Useful performer who arrives in top form after two quick wins at this trip.
The contenders
Persica KTB Fit 68/100
Persica is a smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins in his last five starts. He has won twice from four runs on good to soft ground and has scored twice at today's trip, though he is dropping back from 1m2f. He was well beaten on his only previous run at York. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace likely to unfold here. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at York from 352 runs while the jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track from 122 rides.
Damysus KTB Fit 67/100
Damysus is a smart performer who has finished placed on both previous visits to this track. He drops back to a trip he has won twice from two starts and handles good to soft ground. First-time headgear is now added. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses. The trainer has a 20% strike rate at York from 134 runs and the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track from 333 rides.
Jonquil KTB Fit 66/100
Jonquil is a smart performer who has mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts. First time at York and unproven on good to soft ground both add unknowns while he has failed to score in a single previous try at this trip. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should appreciate the strong pace that is forecast. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at York from over 500 runs and the jockey has a 24% strike rate at the track from 33 rides.
Hankelow KTB Fit 65/100
Hankelow is a smart performer who won on his only previous visit to York. He has solid recent form including a Listed success last season yet looked below par when last seen in Group company. Dropping back in trip today asks a fresh question while the trainer's modest strike rate at the track is noted. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is one of the horses likely to set the strong gallop that could fold up late.
Geryon KTB Fit 63/100
Geryon is a smart 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placed efforts over today's trip. He drops back from 1m4f while making his first start at York, where the yard's 6% strike-rate from 17 runs offers limited encouragement. Unproven on good to soft ground adds another question mark. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will hope the strong pace plays into his hands in the latter stages.
The rest of the field
ArchivistKTB Fit 57/100
Archivist is a smart performer who has already won over this track. He has a solid recent record and has been placed every time he has run at today's trip. The trainer is still seeking a first York winner from 13 attempts while the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground.
Saber StrikeKTB Fit 57/100
Saber Strike is a smart performer who has shown strong form this season with a win and two placed efforts from five starts. He finished a solid third here on his only previous run at York and the yard's 18% strike rate at the track adds some confidence. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up in trip for the first time.
Point LynasKTB Fit 56/100
Point Lynas is a smart performer who has won twice from six runs at York and arrives in decent nick judged on his recent placed efforts. He has never won or placed in five runs on good to soft ground though, which is a clear negative, and the yard's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds little confidence. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and steps up in trip today for the first time in a while.
RidariKTB Fit 55/100
Ridari is a smart performer who has mixed form this year but ran creditably when third in a strong handicap at Newmarket last time. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question and he makes his first start at York. The trainer has an 8% strike rate here from 37 runs while the horse is 1-3 on good to soft ground.
DividendKTB Fit 54/100
Dividend is a smart performer who has won at today's trip but has been well below form on both previous visits to York. The trainer has yet to strike at the track from 13 attempts while the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground. Recent form has been patchy and the wide draw is another negative.
NaqeebKTB Fit 53/100
Naqeeb is a smart performer who has run respectably at this track on several occasions without ever threatening to win. He handles good to soft ground and the step up in trip is an interesting new question rather than a negative. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at York is worth noting.
ExpandedKTB Fit 53/100
Expanded is a smart performer who has finished a close second on both starts this year after a lengthy break. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is also an unknown. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at York from a big sample.
King Of EarthKTB Fit 51/100
King Of Earth is a useful performer who arrives in top form after two quick wins at this trip. He handles the track well and the yard has a solid 18% strike rate here from a big sample. Going suitability remains unknown with only five runs on the clock.
KTB verdict
Persica is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins in his last five starts, he has won twice from four runs on good to soft ground and twice at today's trip, and the strong pace should play to his usual hold-up style. He is narrowly top on the KTB Fit ratings and looks to have the best blend of proven ability and suitability to the likely shape of the race. Main dangers are Damysus, who has placed on both previous visits to York and now tries first-time headgear, and Jonquil, who brings a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts despite the unknowns of course and ground.
KTB Selection Persica
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Hankelow tends to make the running or race on the pace while Point Lynas also tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
Persica, Damysus, Jonquil and Geryon are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Jonquil, Hankelow, Geryon, Archivist, Saber Strike, Dividend, Expanded and King Of Earth are all unproven on good to soft ground.
Which horses are making their first start at York?
Jonquil, Geryon, Ridari and Expanded are all making their first start at York.
Who has the strongest trainer and jockey combination strike rate at York among the principals?
Andrew Balding has a 15% strike rate at York and Colin Keane has a 24% strike rate at York for Jonquil.
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