2:00 Bath
This Class 5 EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes over 5f160y at Bath on good ground brings together a small but competitive field of six two-year-olds, several of whom are dropping in class. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Etienne heading the numbers on 51, followed closely by Polly The Sniper, Cotai Jaunt and Anna Belardo all in the high 40s. With most runners unproven on the surface and no established course form, the race poses several unknowns, though the supplied trainer strike rates at the track provide some guidance.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up. Anna Belardo and Our Fella both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure an honest gallop that could collapse in the later stages. That shape would play to the strengths of hold-up performers such as Etienne, Polly The Sniper and Tree Wizard, who produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the prominent runners can get away with it on this stiff track or if the race will fall into the lap of one of the closers.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Etienne KTB Selection51/100
Etienne is a fair sort who has shown ability in both starts to date, most recently finishing second over this trip. The step up from 5f today looks a positive based on that placed effort at the distance and he is dropping in class. A hold-up performer who usually produces his effort late, he should be suited by the expected strong pace. Richard Spencer and Saffie Osborne combine with a 19% strike rate and positive A/E of 1.23, though the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Bath from 17 runs is a negative. Neither trainer nor jockey have course form on record with this horse and he remains unproven on good ground.
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2Polly The Sniper48/100
Polly The Sniper has shown only modest form in two runs at this trip so far and remains very lightly raced overall. The small sample means both her true ability and going preference are still unclear. She too is a hold-up performer who produces her effort late and should appreciate the strong pace that is likely to unfold. Tom Dascombe brings a solid 15% strike rate at Bath from 165 runs while dropping her in class, though William Cox's record at the track reads 5% from 206 rides. No course form on record and unproven on good ground.
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3Cotai Jaunt47/100
Cotai Jaunt showed only modest form when sixth on debut over this trip. With just one run on the board and no meaningful going data the colt remains very hard to assess. Ollie Sangster's yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Bath from 34 runs and pairs here with Sean D Bowen, who himself has a 12% strike rate at the venue. Dropping in class, he is the one principal without a specified run-style in the data. No course form on record and unproven on good ground.
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4Anna Belardo47/100
Anna Belardo is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts so far, finishing no closer than third. She steps up from 5f to 5¾f today which asks a fresh question at this stage of her career. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, she could set the race up but will need to be good enough to repel the closers if the pace collapses late. Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole have a solid 19% strike rate at Bath from 21 runs, while she has two runs on good without winning or placing. No course form on record.
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5Tree Wizard39/100
Tree Wizard is a modest 2-year-old who has shown some ability, finishing placed on two of his last three starts. He was well beaten on his only visit to Bath and has failed to win in his single run at this trip. A hold-up performer, the trainer has only one previous runner at the track so the yard's local record is too small to judge. Two runs on good without a win or place.
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6Our Fella37/100
Our Fella is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at a lower level but failed to land a blow when tried here last time. He now steps up in trip for the first time while wearing first-time headgear, both of which pose fresh questions. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, the trainer has an 8% strike rate from 537 runs at Bath. Placed once from one run on good ground.
KTB verdict
Etienne is the KTB Selection. A fair sort who has already shown ability in both starts, most notably when second over this trip last time, he is dropping in class and the step up from 5f looks a positive on that placed effort. His hold-up style should be favoured if the strong pace materialises as expected. The main dangers are headed by Polly The Sniper, who remains lightly raced with scope to improve, and the front-running Anna Belardo, who could take advantage if the pace does not fully collapse. Cotai Jaunt is another who cannot be entirely ruled out given the yard's respectable record at the track.
KTB Selection Etienne
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a recent second-place finish over 5f?
Etienne, whose step up from 5f today looks a positive on his placed effort at the distance.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners, with Anna Belardo and Our Fella both tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Bath among those with meaningful data in this race?
Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole with a 19% strike rate at Bath from 21 runs.
What is the expected benefit for hold-up horses in this contest?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Etienne, Polly The Sniper and Tree Wizard.
Which runner is wearing headgear for the first time while stepping up in both trip and class?
Our Fella, who is also stepping up in class and has first-time headgear.
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