2:00 Doncaster
This Class 5 apprentice handicap at Doncaster over an extended mile and two furlongs on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of seven where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 60 and 43. Canvas heads the KTB rankings on 60 and is the selection, while the race features several course winners and runners dropping in class. The overall numbers suggest a competitive heat in which course form, trip suitability and the uncontested pace shape will play major roles.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, as Poet's Dawn is the only front-runner in the field and can be expected to bowl along with little pressure. The remaining six runners are all held-up types who will be produced late, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of whether the leader can steal it or if the closers can reel him in from off the pace. That sets up a key question of whether the uncontested lead will prove decisive on this sound surface over the stiff ten furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Canvas KTB Selection60/100Canvas is a fair performer who has won two of his four starts at Doncaster and arrives in reasonable form having shown a bit more on his latest two starts.
- 2Amidst The Chaos58/100Modest performer with a mixed recent record that includes a win and a second from its last six starts.
- 3Poet's Dawn51/100Modest 11-year-old with a solid recent record of three wins in his last four starts yet looks vulnerable back at Doncaster where he has been well beaten on both…
- 4Echalar50/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of unplaced efforts.
- 5Project Geofin49/100Project Geofin is a fair performer who has won once from five starts at Doncaster and also has a win on good to firm ground.
- 6Moonjid44/100Modest performer who has won once at this trip but looks exposed after 18 runs.
- 7Qitaal43/100Qitaal is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive of late with placed efforts mixed in among his recent form.
The contenders
Canvas KTB Fit 60/100
Canvas is a fair performer who has won two of his four starts at Doncaster and arrives in reasonable form having shown a bit more on his latest two starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time since placing over this distance on his second run, which looks a fair question given his record on good to firm. The yard’s 8% strike rate at the track from a big sample is offset by a solid A/E of 1.18. Trainer and jockey figures read 9/141 (6%) with an A/E of 0.78, while the jockey has an 11% strike rate at Doncaster. From draw 3 he is expected to be held up and produce his effort late. He drops in class and his recent form reads 70-409.
Amidst The Chaos KTB Fit 58/100
Amidst The Chaos is a modest performer with a mixed recent record that includes a win and a second from its last six starts. He has already won over this course in three visits and is proven on good to firm ground. The step up in trip remains an unknown. Trainer and jockey combined read 3/20 (15%) with an A/E of 1.84 and positive LSP of +£119.88. The trainer’s 6% strike rate at Doncaster is offset by the horse’s own course success, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be produced late from draw 2. Recent form is 421250.
Poet's Dawn KTB Fit 51/100
Poet’s Dawn is a modest 11-year-old with a solid recent record of three wins in his last four starts yet looks vulnerable back at Doncaster where he has been well beaten on both previous visits. He handles good to firm ground and has won five times at this trip, so the distance is no issue. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard’s modest 7% strike rate at the track offers little encouragement. Trainer and jockey read 14/107 (13%) with an A/E of 0.93. The jockey has a 13% strike rate at Doncaster from limited rides. A confirmed front-runner with high confidence, he is set to make the running from draw 4. Recent form reads 663111.
Echalar KTB Fit 50/100
Echalar is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of unplaced efforts. First-time headgear is now tried after three runs on this ground produced no win or place, while he has also failed to trouble the judge in two starts at today’s trip. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 536 runs at Doncaster. Jockey statistics show a 38% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.85. Usually held up with high confidence from draw 5, he will be coming from off the pace. He drops in class with recent form of 670347.
The rest of the field
Project GeofinKTB Fit 49/100
Project Geofin is a fair performer who has won once from five starts at Doncaster and also has a win on good to firm ground. He drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a half, though he has won at this distance in the past. The trainer’s modest 4% strike rate from 151 runs at the track is a negative. Held up with high confidence, recent form reads 429-70.
MoonjidKTB Fit 44/100
Moonjid is a modest performer who has won once at this trip but looks exposed after 18 runs. He has placed on good to firm ground and showed some promise when fifth over course and distance on his only visit here. The trainer operates at a steady 9% strike rate at Doncaster while the 5lb claimer helps on the weights. Held up with high confidence, recent form is 453175.
QitaalKTB Fit 43/100
Qitaal is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive of late with placed efforts mixed in among his recent form. He has won at this trip and at this track from limited attempts, though his record on good to firm is only one placing from eight starts. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here from 108 runs. Usually held up with high confidence, recent form reads 523346.
KTB verdict
Canvas is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with two wins from four starts at Doncaster, he arrives in reasonable nick and drops in class while stepping back up to a trip over which he has placed in the past. The yard’s record at the track is respectable once the A/E is considered and his held-up style should see him delivered late against a lone leader. Main dangers are Amidst The Chaos, who boasts course success and a strong trainer-jockey combination, and Poet’s Dawn, who is in excellent heart, drops in class and is likely to get an easy lead that could prove difficult to overcome.
KTB Selection Canvas
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only confirmed front-runner and how does the pace shape favour it?
Poet's Dawn is the only front-runner with high confidence. The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting an uncontested lead that can be hard for the held-up closers to peg back.
How many course winners are in the field and which horses are they?
There are four course winners: Canvas (two wins from four), Amidst The Chaos (one from three), Project Geofin (one from five) and Qitaal (one from two).
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Poet's Dawn and Echalar are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has the strongest jockey track record at Doncaster according to the A/E?
Conor Whiteley has a 38% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 2.85 from eight rides when partnering Echalar.
Which horses are dropping in class and what is the trip situation for the selection?
All seven runners are dropping in class. Canvas steps up in trip today for the first time since placing over this distance on his second run.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies