2:05 Newcastle (AW)
This Class 4 handicap over 1m4f98y at Newcastle on standard to slow ground brings together a field of 13 in which KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Mick Collins on 61, with Aulis just behind on 59 and a trio on 53 comprising Molinari, Tripoli Flyer and Jindri. Several runners are unproven on the surface while others step up or drop in trip, and the race features a mix of course specialists and those making their Newcastle debut.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly-run contest with a mix of prominent runners and those who race more patiently. Mick Collins and Haveyoumissedme are likely to be to the fore, while several 3-year-olds such as Glory Road, Ruby Wedding and Lavender Gold may settle mid-division or further back. The key question is whether the race falls apart in the straight or if the prominent types can dictate matters from the front, with the far side draw potentially offering an advantage on this configuration.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mick Collins KTB Selection61/100Fair performer who arrives in solid form after a win over 2m last time.
- 2Aulis59/100Aulis is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form on standard to slow going, including two seconds from three starts.
- 3Molinari53/100Molinari is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, including two wins from 11 runs.
- 4Tripoli Flyer53/100Tripoli Flyer is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a win last time out.
- 5Jindri53/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form, finishing second on his most recent start over this trip.
- 6Haveyoumissedme52/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from 20 runs and also has three wins from 13 starts at today's trip.
- 7Eniac52/100Eniac is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including a third at this track on his penultimate start.
- 8Glory Road52/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form in three runs this year, finishing second on debut then third twice since.
- 9Ruby Wedding52/100Ruby Wedding is a fair 3-year-old who showed improved form when winning a similar race at Kempton last time and has run well enough on his two previous AW start…
- 10Lightning Tiger49/100Lightning Tiger is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning since landing a 1m4f success last year.
- 11Lavender Gold47/100Lavender Gold is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form, winning last time out and placing in three of her other five starts.
- 12Austrian Theory44/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and was well held again last time.
- 13Ouro Preto44/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
The contenders
Mick Collins KTB Fit 61/100
Mick Collins is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a win over 2m last time. He drops back to a trip he has won at before but is unproven on standard to slow going and makes his first appearance at Newcastle. The Martin Todhunter yard posts an 11% strike rate at the venue from 36 runs with an A/E of 0.99, while David Nolan has a 12% strike rate from 639 rides here with an A/E of 0.99. Recent form figures of 234/1- underline his progressive profile, and he is the KTB selection.
Aulis KTB Fit 59/100
Aulis is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form on standard to slow going, including two seconds from three starts. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, though his recent efforts over shorter have been mixed with form figures of 212/46. The Tina Jackson yard has a modest 2% strike rate at Newcastle from 54 runs with an A/E of 0.24, but this is offset by Conor Whiteley’s strong 33% record from 21 rides here with an A/E of 1.9. He remains competitive on the surface he has placed on twice.
Molinari KTB Fit 53/100
Molinari is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, including two wins from 11 runs. He steps up in trip today having last run over 1m2f yet has won twice from 14 starts at this distance, with recent form figures of 3204-8. The Martin Todhunter yard and Billy Garritty both record an 11% strike rate at Newcastle, the former with an A/E of 0.99 from 36 runs and the latter 0.97 from 423 rides. He has won once from three starts on standard to slow going and three times placed.
Tripoli Flyer KTB Fit 53/100
Tripoli Flyer is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a win last time out. He has solid form on standard to slow going with two wins from three starts and has already won at today's trip, with recent form figures of 7431. Dropping in class, the Fergal O'Brien yard has a 0% strike rate at Newcastle from a small sample of two runs, while Dougie Costello posts a 6% strike rate from 345 rides with an A/E of 0.73. The yard and jockey combined show 3/20 (15%) with an A/E of 1.42.
Jindri KTB Fit 53/100
Jindri is a modest performer who has shown consistent form, finishing second on his most recent start over this trip. He has won once at today's distance from three attempts and has been competitive on standard to slow ground with form figures of 431-52. Stepping up in class, trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam holds a solid 19% strike rate at Newcastle from 54 runs with an A/E of 1.28, though apprentice Sorin Moldoveanu has a 0% record from just three rides here. The yard and jockey combined show 3/32 (9%) with an A/E of 1.09.
The rest of the field
HaveyoumissedmeKTB Fit 52/100
Haveyoumissedme is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from 20 runs and also has three wins from 13 starts at today's trip. Dropping in class from 2m, he has shown consistent placed form at various distances this year with figures of 352732. Both trainer Iain Jardine and jockey Andrew Mullen have modest strike rates here on the AW.
EniacKTB Fit 52/100
Eniac is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including a third at this track on his penultimate start. He drops back in trip from 1m5f to 1m4f98y having failed to trouble the judge in his only previous run at today's distance, with form figures of 3-5493. Brian Ellison’s 9% strike rate from 889 runs at Newcastle carries an A/E of 0.81 while Darragh Keenan posts a solid 13% from 102 rides here.
Glory RoadKTB Fit 52/100
Glory Road is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form in three runs this year, finishing second on debut then third twice since with form figures of 2-32. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him and remains unproven on standard to slow going. Ralph Beckett has a solid 17% strike-rate at the track while Billy Loughnane matches that figure from many more rides here.
Ruby WeddingKTB Fit 52/100
Ruby Wedding is a fair 3-year-old who showed improved form when winning a similar race at Kempton last time and has run well enough on his two previous AW starts with figures of 35-461. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while remaining unproven on standard to slow going. Andrew Balding has a strong 26% strike rate at Newcastle from 280 runs, though Callum Hutchinson is operating closer to the expected level with his 14% record from 37 rides here.
Lightning TigerKTB Fit 49/100
Lightning Tiger is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning since landing a 1m4f success last year. He drops back from 1m6f today having already shown he can win at this trip, though he is unproven on standard to slow going and now tries first-time headgear. The trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate at Newcastle while the jockey is operating at 9%.
Lavender GoldKTB Fit 47/100
Lavender Gold is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form, winning last time out and placing in three of her other five starts with figures of 323-71. She steps up in trip today having last run over 1m2f, which asks a fresh question and leaves her unproven on standard to slow going. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 22 runs at Newcastle while the jockey has a solid 17% from 35 rides here.
Austrian TheoryKTB Fit 44/100
Austrian Theory is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and was well held again last time with figures of -59758. He has shown a bit of ability on this track with a placed effort from his only run here but steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in two previous tries at the distance. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
Ouro PretoKTB Fit 44/100
Ouro Preto is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts and figures of 0-7979. He steps up in trip to a distance at which he has won twice from five starts though he is unproven on standard to slow going. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
KTB verdict
Mick Collins is the KTB selection. A fair performer in solid form after his recent 2m success, he drops back to a trip he has won over and is ridden by David Nolan from a yard with respectable records at Newcastle. The unproven surface and first run at the venue are the main queries. He is likely to be prominent and can take advantage of any pace complications. The main dangers are Tripoli Flyer, who arrives on the back of a win with strong stats on the surface, and Aulis, who boasts solid placed form on standard to slow going.
KTB Selection Mick Collins
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent winning form at the trip?
Mick Collins won over 2m last time and has previously won at today's distance, while Tripoli Flyer and Jindri have also won at this trip.
How does the Newcastle course record of Molinari compare to the rest of the field?
Molinari has won twice from 11 runs at the track, the only horse with multiple course victories; Haveyoumissedme has two wins from 20 runs and Austrian Theory has one placing from one run.
Which 3-year-olds are stepping up markedly in trip?
Glory Road steps up markedly in trip from his placed efforts over shorter, while Ruby Wedding, Lavender Gold and Eniac also step up having contested races over 1m2f or 1m5f.
What is the combined trainer-jockey record at Newcastle for the yard of the selection?
Martin Todhunter has an 11% strike rate at Newcastle with an A/E of 0.99 from 36 runs, while David Nolan has a 12% strike rate with an A/E of 0.99 from 639 rides.
Which runners are trying headgear for the first time?
Lightning Tiger and Austrian Theory are both fitted with first-time headgear.
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