2:05 Redcar
This Class 4 apprentice handicap over 5f 217y at Redcar on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of seven where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Artagnan heads the numbers on 67 with Amorim close behind on 65, while First Folio and Star Material both sit on 46. The overall picture suggests a race where the application of first-time headgear to almost the entire field adds an extra layer of uncertainty to form that is already mixed.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is simply not enough run-style evidence across the field to read the race with any certainty. Kats Bob is the only horse with a noted tendency to go forward and make the running, while Archduke Ferdinand is usually prominent. How the race unfolds will therefore hinge on how aggressively these two are ridden and whether any of the others choose to contest the lead early. The key question is whether the race develops into a genuine test or becomes a more tactical affair on a track where prominent racing can often pay.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Artagnan KTB Selection67/100Artagnan is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with one win and three places from five starts.
- 2Amorim65/100Amorim is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form this season but now drops back to 5f for the first time since his winning juvenile campaign.
- 3First Folio46/100Fair performer who has won at today's trip but arrives out of form with three modest efforts this year.
- 4Star Material46/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on good to firm, including one placing from two starts on this ground.
- 5Kats Bob45/100Fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts.
- 6Mythical Phoenix45/100Mythical Phoenix is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with five poor efforts on the spin.
- 7Archduke Ferdinand40/100Modest performer who has won twice from three starts at this track and has a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from 11 attempts.
The contenders
Artagnan KTB Fit 67/100
Artagnan is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with one win and three places from five starts. He showed some promise when fourth on his most recent outing but has been inconsistent overall and finished a disappointing 11th on his only previous run here. First-time headgear is now applied while the jockey has a strong 25% strike rate at the track from 16 rides. The trainer posts a 33% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.14 from three runs. Drawn in stall seven, Artagnan is taken to put his best foot forward in first-time headgear.
Amorim KTB Fit 65/100
Amorim is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form this season but now drops back to 5f for the first time since his winning juvenile campaign. He has won on good to firm and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition given his exposed profile. Trainer George Boughey has a strong 33% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.21 from 43 runs, though jockey Jack Callan is still seeking his first win from seven rides here. The trainer and jockey combination shows 23 wins from 135 rides with an A/E of 0.95. Drawn in four, Amorim is likely to be in the mix once more.
First Folio KTB Fit 46/100
First Folio is a fair performer who has won at today's trip but arrives out of form with three modest efforts this year. First time headgear is now tried and the yard's modest record at Redcar, where the trainer has a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.82 from 274 runs, is offset by the jockey's solid strike rate here of 12% with an A/E of 1.04 from 34 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows 15 wins from 170 rides with an A/E of 0.71. He has three wins from 14 starts on good to firm with another four placed efforts.
Star Material KTB Fit 46/100
Star Material is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on good to firm, including one placing from two starts on this ground. First-time headgear is now fitted after a string of modest efforts and the yard's modest record at Redcar, where the trainer has a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.81 from 43 runs, offers little encouragement. The trainer and jockey combination shows three wins from nine rides. Stall one could prove handy but the jockey is still seeking a first winner here from seven rides.
The rest of the field
Kats BobKTB Fit 45/100
Kats Bob is a fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts. He has won at this trip and handles good to firm ground with two wins from ten starts and six placed efforts, while the first-time headgear is a possible positive. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.71 from 462 runs, offset by the jockey's slightly better 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.88 from 67 rides. He finished fourth on his only previous run here.
Mythical PhoenixKTB Fit 45/100
Mythical Phoenix is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with five poor efforts on the spin. He has placed on good to firm ground and at today's trip without winning, but connections at this track are modest with the trainer operating at a 9% strike rate from a large sample. This is his first run at Redcar.
Archduke FerdinandKTB Fit 40/100
Archduke Ferdinand is a modest performer who has won twice from three starts at this track and has a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from 11 attempts. He has also won at today's trip but his recent form has been patchy and he now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate here from 42 runs while the jockey is still seeking his first Redcar winner from six rides. The trainer and jockey combination is currently 0 from 23.
KTB verdict
Artagnan is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with two wins at the trip and a strong record on good to firm, he showed promise when fourth last time and now gets the help of first-time headgear. The jockey's record at the track adds to the appeal and he can come out on top. Main dangers are Amorim, who brings consistent placed form and an interesting drop back to 5f along with first-time headgear for a yard that does well at Redcar, and First Folio, who is tried in headgear himself while his jockey performs solidly at the venue. Archduke Ferdinand cannot be entirely dismissed given his record at the track.
KTB Selection Artagnan
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is having its first run at Redcar?
Mythical Phoenix is having his first run at Redcar.
How many wins has Archduke Ferdinand had at this course?
Archduke Ferdinand has won twice from three starts at this track.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Artagnan, Amorim, First Folio, Star Material, Kats Bob and Archduke Ferdinand are all wearing first-time headgear.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Redcar with Amorim's stable?
George Boughey has a 33% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.21 from 43 runs.
Which horse tends to make the running?
Kats Bob tends to make the running or race on the pace.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies