2:06 Perth
A small but select field of five lines up for the 2:06 at Perth in a Class 4 novices’ hurdle over 2m4f35y on good ground. The KTB numbers identify two smart performers at the head of the market, with Holy Joe and L’amalric clearly the ones to focus on, while the lightly raced Moi Mon Vieux brings placed form and first-time headgear into the equation. Overall the Fit Scores suggest a race that revolves around established ability rather than depth, with the principals holding the key.
How the race shapes up
With only five runners the pace shape is compact and should be fairly even. Holy Joe and L’amalric are both expected to race prominently, while Moi Mon Vieux is likely to track the leaders. The key question is whether the step up in trip will expose any limitations in the market leaders or allow the longer distance to bring about further improvement, particularly for the selection.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Holy Joe KTB Selection61/100Smart performer who showed promise when sixth here on debut before landing a point.
- 2L'amalric57/100Smart performer who has already shown plenty in just three runs.
- 3Moi Mon Vieux53/100Lightly raced 4-year-old with placed efforts on both starts so far yet the small sample makes it hard to gauge true ability.
- 4Dolly Dior49/100Dolly Dior showed improved form when winning over this trip at Sedgefield last time having shaped well on her previous run here.
- 5Fortunes Dawn43/100Fortunes Dawn has shown modest form at best on his two starts this year finishing seventh of 13 last time.
The contenders
Holy Joe KTB Fit 61/100
Holy Joe is a smart performer who showed promise when finishing sixth here on his debut before going on to land a point. He steps up in trip having already tried this distance twice without success, though the longer test could play to his strengths. Gordon Elliott’s 28% strike rate at Perth from a huge sample of 816 runs underlines the yard’s prowess at this venue. The combination of course familiarity and trainer form makes him a major player. Recent form figures of 6-U1 reflect steady progression after an initial run here. Jockey Rian Corcoran is aboard, though he has yet to strike at Perth.
L'amalric KTB Fit 57/100
L’amalric is another smart performer who has already shown plenty in just three runs. He bounced back from a fall to land a 2m novice at Warwick last time out. The yard’s 30% strike rate at Perth from 206 runs adds considerable interest to his claims. Sean Bowen takes the ride and boasts a 32% strike rate at the track from 337 rides. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Recent form figures of FP3-13 show clear signs of ability when avoiding mishaps.
Moi Mon Vieux KTB Fit 53/100
Moi Mon Vieux is a lightly raced 4-year-old with placed efforts on both starts so far, though the small sample makes it hard to gauge his true ability. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. Trainer Richard Hobson has a solid 18% strike rate at Perth from 22 runs. Paul O’Brien is in the saddle with a 33% strike rate at the track from only three rides. Recent form figures of 2-62 indicate he has been competitive without winning. He is stepping up in class as well.
The rest of the field
Dolly DiorKTB Fit 49/100
Dolly Dior showed improved form when winning over this trip at Sedgefield last time having shaped well on her previous run here. She has a solid record on good ground with one win from four starts and the yard maintains a respectable 15% strike rate at Perth from 81 runs. Course efforts so far have been unconvincing with two runs yielding a fourth and a seventh. Recent form figures of 57-41 reflect her progress.
Fortunes DawnKTB Fit 43/100
Fortunes Dawn has shown modest form at best on his two starts this year, finishing seventh of 13 last time. The yard’s 4% strike rate from 116 runs at Perth offers little encouragement and this looks a stiff task on only his third career run. He has tried this trip once without success and with so little overall evidence this is very much a watching brief. Recent form figures of 354-79 tell their own story.
KTB verdict
Holy Joe stands out as the KTB Selection. He showed promise on his course debut before winning a point, and the longer trip may bring about further progress while the yard’s excellent record at Perth adds strong backing. L’amalric is the obvious danger having already shown smart form in few runs and boasting strong Perth trainer and jockey statistics, though the step up in trip is an unknown. Moi Mon Vieux is the most interesting of the remainder with placed form, first-time headgear and a yard that performs solidly here, but he has more to prove stepping up markedly in trip and class.
KTB Selection Holy Joe
This is the narrative read of the 2:06 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip and wearing first-time headgear?
Moi Mon Vieux, the 4-year-old with recent form figures of 2-62.
What is Gordon Elliott’s strike rate at Perth?
28% strike rate at Perth from 816 runs with an A/E of 1.
Which runner has already won a 2m novice at Warwick this season?
L’amalric, who has recent form figures of FP3-13.
How many times has Holy Joe run at Perth previously?
Once, when he finished sixth on debut with no win or place.
Which horse has shown modest form at best on his two starts this year?
Fortunes Dawn, who has recent form figures of 354-79.
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