2:14 Salisbury
This Class 5 apprentice handicap over 6f 213y at Salisbury on good to soft ground features a compact field of five three-year-olds. The KTB Fit Scores point to a contest where steady progression is the main theme, with the top three all rated as modest performers who bring different levels of recent encouragement. Dropping in class looks a positive for a couple, while the trip and surface provide fresh questions across the board.
How the race shapes up
With no pronounced front-runners in the field and a generally even pace shape expected, the race is likely to be run at a sensible tempo early on. Allegrino and Orange Emperor are both capable of sitting prominently, while Red Moon from stall one and the others may track or race midfield. The key question will be whether the step back up in trip suits those coming from shorter, and how the good to soft ground affects those with little or no experience of it.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Allegrino KTB Selection55/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress and looks ready to build on a recent course win over this trip.
- 2Orange Emperor49/100Modest performer who has shown fair form on his last two starts without threatening to win.
- 3Red Moon44/100Red Moon has shown very little in three runs to date and remains a modest performer on balance.
- 4Ahead Of Fashion41/100Modest performer who has been largely consistent this year without winning.
- 5Creciente34/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in eight starts and was well beaten when fifth of six over course and distance on his most recent outing.
The contenders
Allegrino KTB Fit 55/100
Allegrino is a modest performer who has shown steady progress and looks ready to build on a recent course win over this trip. The step back up in distance after a last run at 6f poses a fresh question but the pedigree and prior success at the trip suggest it should be fine. Andrew Balding has a solid 14% strike rate at Salisbury from 723 runs, though the trainer and jockey combination reads 0/15 (0%) with an A/E of 0.00 and -£15.00 LSP. The jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from four rides, and the horse remains unproven on good to soft. Dropping in class is a positive, and with recent form figures of 82-312 the three-year-old from draw 4 is taken to follow up.
Orange Emperor KTB Fit 49/100
Orange Emperor is a modest performer who has shown fair form on his last two starts without threatening to win. He steps up in trip today having failed to get competitive over 6f on his most recent run. James Fanshawe brings a 19% strike rate at Salisbury from 172 runs and the trainer and jockey record stands at 1/6 (17%). The 5lb claimer has a 0% strike rate at the track from two rides, and the colt has one run on good to soft with no win or place. Recent form reads 64-256 and from draw 5 this looks sure to be another step on the learning curve rather than a winning one.
Red Moon KTB Fit 44/100
Red Moon has shown very little in three runs to date and remains a modest performer on balance. He was well held on his only previous visit to Salisbury and steps back up to this trip having failed to make an impact at it twice before. Jack Channon holds a 9% strike rate at the track from 32 runs while the jockey has no previous Salisbury rides and is therefore neutral. The horse is unproven on good to soft, has course form of one run finishing 10th with no win or place, and is dropping in class. Recent form of 6-00 leaves him with plenty to find from draw 1.
The rest of the field
Ahead Of FashionKTB Fit 41/100
Ahead Of Fashion is a modest performer who has been largely consistent this year without winning. He has failed to place in four runs on good to soft ground and is now tried at this trip for the fifth time without success so far. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here from 127 runs and the jockey has had only two rides at the track with a 0% strike rate.
CrecienteKTB Fit 34/100
Creciente is a limited performer who has shown little spark in eight starts and was well beaten when fifth of six over course and distance on his most recent outing. He steps up in trip again today having failed to trouble the judge in four previous attempts at this distance. Rod Millman has an 8% strike rate at Salisbury from 857 runs, the horse is unproven on good to soft, has course form of one run finishing 5th with no win or place, and is stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Allegrino is the KTB Selection and arrives with the strongest recent profile after a course success over this trip. The drop in class should help and the pedigree gives every reason to expect the return to this distance will be handled without issue. His main dangers are likely to be Orange Emperor, who brings the best recent form of the remainder, and Red Moon if he can improve markedly for the switch to handicaps, though both have questions to answer on the ground and at the trip.
KTB Selection Allegrino
This is the narrative read of the 2:14 Salisbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Salisbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at the course and distance?
Allegrino has a recent course win over this trip while Creciente was fifth of six over course and distance last time out.
Who has the best trainer record at Salisbury?
James Fanshawe has a 19% strike rate at Salisbury from 172 runs, ahead of Andrew Balding on 14% from 723 runs.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Allegrino, Red Moon and Creciente have no runs on good to soft and are therefore unproven on the surface.
What is the class move for the top two in the KTB Fit rankings?
Allegrino and Red Moon are both dropping in class while Creciente is stepping up in class.
How many of these runners have previous form at Salisbury?
Red Moon has one run here finishing 10th, Creciente has one run here finishing 5th, and Allegrino has a recent course win.
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