2:25 York
The Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes brings a competitive Group 2 field of nine smart stayers to York over 2m on good to soft ground. KTB rates the top four principals all on an identical Fit score of 64, underlining a race where small margins and the shape of the contest could prove decisive. The KTB numbers highlight consistent performers with solid track and trainer form at York, though several hold question marks over the trip, the ground or both.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, the race is expected to be dominated upfront by one clear front-runner who should be allowed an uncontested lead. Quickthorn and Columbus both have front-running tendencies and could dispute early, though the shape suggests one will likely bowl along without serious pressure. That sets up a test for the majority of the field who are held-up types, making the key question whether any closer can reel in a potentially uncontested leader on this stiff York finish.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mount Atlas64/100Smart performer who has won here and placed twice on good to soft.
- 2Caballo De Mar64/100Smart performer who has won twice at this trip and showed his best form when finishing second in a strong handicap at Ascot last month.
- 3Amiloc KTB Selection64/100Smart performer who has not really built on his earlier promise and was well held when sixth over this trip and track on his most recent start.
- 4Carmers64/100Smart performer who has finished placed on his only previous visit to York and is 1-1 at today's trip.
- 5Quickthorn58/100Smart performer with a solid record here, including two wins from seven runs at York.
- 6Columbus57/100Smart performer who has been mixing it at a high level and arrives here off a respectable recent run at Group level.
- 7Al Nayyir55/100Smart performer who has run well in defeat at this track on two of his three starts here.
- 8French Master51/100Smart performer who has mixed form this year and finished only midfield when tried over this trip last time.
- 9Illinois49/100Smart performer who has run to a high level on several occasions and finished a solid second here over this trip last year.
The contenders
Mount Atlas KTB Fit 64/100
Mount Atlas arrives as a smart performer who has already won at York and been placed twice on good to soft ground. His recent form of 4-2231 underlines consistency, with placed efforts leading to a last-time-out success over a shorter trip. Andrew Balding brings a 15% strike rate at the track from a large sample of 509 runs, while P J McDonald also knows York well with a 10% strike rate. The horse is usually held up and produces his effort late, which could be a factor given the likely uncontested lead. He has been competitive without winning on good to soft and steps up to 2m today, an unknown that tempers expectations.
Caballo De Mar KTB Fit 64/100
Caballo De Mar is a smart performer who has won twice at this trip and showed strong form when second in a competitive handicap at Ascot last month. He drops back from 2m4f, a move that looks sensible after he was well beaten in a Group 3 on his most recent start. George Scott operates at a 9% strike rate at York, while Oisin Murphy takes the ride with a 16% strike rate at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has a win and a place from two starts on good to soft. No course form on record means he must prove himself at York.
Amiloc KTB Fit 64/100
Amiloc is the KTB selection and rates as a smart performer, though he has not really built on his earlier promise. He was well held when finishing sixth over this trip and track on his most recent start and is unproven on good to soft ground. Ralph Beckett has a solid 13% strike rate at York from 344 runs, with Rossa Ryan on board who also has a 13% strike rate at the venue. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has shown nothing to suggest he can reverse the form with several of today's rivals. He ran once here previously, finishing sixth.
Carmers KTB Fit 64/100
Carmers is a smart performer who has finished placed on his only previous visit to York and is one from one at today's trip. He drops back from 2m4f and will sport first-time headgear, both of which introduce unknowns. P Twomey continues in solid form at the track with a 17% strike rate from a small sample, while W J Lee has a strong 16% strike rate at York. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he remains unproven on good to soft ground. He was second here on his sole visit.
The rest of the field
QuickthornKTB Fit 58/100
Quickthorn is a smart performer with a solid record at York including two wins from seven runs. He has four wins from seven starts on good to soft and three wins from ten at today's trip, though he steps back up in distance from a mile and six. Hughie Morrison has a modest 9% strike rate at the track from 153 runs, which is a slight negative.
ColumbusKTB Fit 57/100
Columbus is a smart performer who has mixed it at a high level and arrives off a respectable recent run at Group level. He drops back in trip today which poses a fresh question, though he has a win and two places from four starts on good to soft. Willie Mullins has a solid 14% strike rate at York from 35 runs while Colin Keane takes the ride on his first visit to the track.
Al NayyirKTB Fit 55/100
Al Nayyir is a smart performer who has run well in defeat at this track on two of his three starts here. He drops back from 2m4f to a trip he has won over before though his sole run on good to soft brought no joy. Tom Clover's modest 6% strike rate at York is a negative.
French MasterKTB Fit 51/100
French Master is a smart performer who has mixed form this year and finished only midfield when tried over this trip last time. He has a bit to prove on his sole visit to York and has yet to show his best on good to soft ground. John & Thady Gosden continue in solid form here but the horse arrives with a few questions to answer.
IllinoisKTB Fit 49/100
Illinois is a smart performer who has run to a high level on several occasions and finished a solid second here over this trip last year. He has been below that level on both starts this season though and his only try on good to soft brought no joy. Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore both know the track well.
KTB verdict
Amiloc is the KTB selection in a race where the principals are closely matched on Fit scores. He has not really built on earlier promise and was well held over course and distance last time, yet the selection stands out as the call on trainer form at the track and the way the race is likely to unfold. The uncontested lead should suit a patient ride from Rossa Ryan. Main dangers are Mount Atlas, who has already won here and acts on the ground, and Caballo De Mar, who drops back to a more suitable trip after a strong Ascot run. Carmers cannot be ruled out with the first-time headgear and placed course form.
KTB Selection Amiloc
This is the narrative read of the 2:25 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to soft and was sixth over course and distance last time?
Amiloc is unproven on good to soft and was well held when sixth over this trip and track on his most recent start.
Who is the only front-runner in the field with a strong record at York?
Quickthorn has a solid record here including two wins from seven runs at York and tends to make the running.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear and is one from one at the trip?
Carmers is wearing first-time headgear, is one from one at today's trip and has finished placed on his only previous visit to York.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at York among those represented?
John & Thady Gosden have a 20% strike rate at York from 132 runs.
Who finished second over this trip at York last year but has been below form this season?
Illinois finished a solid second here over this trip last year but has been below that level on both starts this season.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies