2:30 Ascot
The Queen Mary Stakes is a prestigious Group 2 for two-year-old fillies over five furlongs at Ascot on good to firm ground, featuring a large and open-looking field of 28. With limited racing experience across the runners, the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, reflecting modest confidence levels overall and a race where pedigree, sales background and small-sample form dominate the assessments. Shining Moment heads the KTB ranking on the back of her course-and-distance success and proven ability on the surface despite a wide draw.
How the race shapes up
This straight five-furlong contest is likely to be contested at a strong pace given the number of runners with early speed and prominent run-styles in a big field. Several principals, including those drawn low such as Lover Girl in stall four and Crystal Queen in three, along with others like Wild Blossom and Senorita Bonita, should be forward, while Shining Moment from stall 21 and Shimmering Sun from 25 will need to navigate traffic or race wide. The key question is whether the leaders can get away with it on firm ground or if the race will be won from off the pace or with a rail-hugging run from the lower draws.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Shining Moment KTB Selection60/100Shining Moment is a debutant with two placed efforts on the all-weather already under her belt.
- 2Lover Girl59/100Lover Girl has won two of her three starts including on this good-to-firm ground and at today's 5f trip.
- 3Crystal Queen58/100Crystal Queen has shown useful early promise with a win and a second from her two starts.
- 4Wild Blossom57/100Wild Blossom won her only start over this trip on debut.
- 5Shimmering Sun55/100Shimmering Sun won her only start over this trip.
- 6Magic Effort54/100Magic Effort showed useful speed when winning a 5f maiden on debut then ran creditably in a Listed race when fourth last time.
- 7Drazinda54/100Drazinda made a winning start over this trip on her debut.
- 8Love A Giggle53/100Love A Giggle has won both starts at this trip and arrives with an unbeaten record.
- 9Niewiadoma52/100Niewiadoma showed useful early speed to win a 5f maiden on debut but was well held in a stronger race last time.
- 10Miss Lizzy52/100Miss Lizzy has shown mixed form in four starts, winning a minor event before finishing fifth in better company last time.
- 11Ruiva52/100This Wesley Ward newcomer showed a sharp turn of foot when winning a minor event on debut in the States.
- 12Senorita Bonita52/100Senorita Bonita won her only start over this trip and looks to have ability.
- 13Princesse d'Orange51/100Princesse d'Orange has shown mixed form in three starts, winning at this trip on debut before finishing fifth and third in stronger company.
- 14Crownbreaker51/100Placed second on debut then ran to a similar level when third at Newmarket last time.
- 15Bint Archange50/100Bint Archange showed promise when third on debut then won a novice here over this trip last time.
- 16Armor Supreme50/100Armor Supreme has won one of his two starts at this trip and showed useful form when chasing home a smart rival on his most recent outing.
- 17Big Negotiator50/100Big Negotiator has shown progressive form in three starts and already has a win over this trip on his record.
- 18Alta Regina50/100Alta Regina made a winning start over this trip on good to firm ground.
- 19Pershaada49/100Pershaada has shown steady progress in three starts, finishing third then second before landing a win at today's trip.
- 20Your Song49/100Your Song has shown enough in two starts to win over this trip on his latest outing.
- 21Velozee49/100Velozee brings strong recent form of 114 but steps back to 5f today after her last run over 6f.
- 22Havana Lightning49/100Havana Lightning has won one of his two starts at this trip and showed clear improvement when landing a minor event last time.
- 23Envision49/100Envision has shown promise in two runs as a juvenile with a win on good to firm at this trip.
- 24Celtic Dispute47/100Celtic Dispute has shown useful early promise with a win and a second from two starts, including success at this trip on his debut.
- 25Victorious46/100Victorious has won both starts to date and now drops back to 5f for the first time.
- 26Fast Track46/100Placed second on debut then filled the same spot in a Newbury listed race last time.
- 27Kentucky Rain45/100Kentucky Rain showed promise when second on debut over this trip and should improve from that run.
- 28More Champagne42/100More Champagne is a newcomer with just one prior run that produced a win though the bare form is impossible to quantify at this stage.
The contenders
Shining Moment KTB Fit 60/100
Shining Moment is the KTB selection and arrives with two placed efforts on the all-weather already under her belt as a debutant. Wesley Ward has a solid 14% strike rate at Ascot from 93 runs while Oisin Murphy posts an 11% record from 514 rides here. She is a course and distance winner and proven on this going at this course. Low data confidence means the pedigree and sales background are the main pointers but the wide draw in stall 21 looks far from ideal on firm ground.
Lover Girl KTB Fit 59/100
Lover Girl has won two of her three starts including on this good-to-firm ground and at today's 5f trip. That is decent for a two-year-old but the form is from a small sample and needs treating with caution. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Ascot while the jockey is operating at a 4% strike rate here. She holds a KTB Fit score of 59 and is drawn in stall four which could prove beneficial in a strongly run race.
Crystal Queen KTB Fit 58/100
Crystal Queen has shown useful early promise with a win and a second from her two starts. She has already won on good to firm ground and at this 5f trip which are both positives from a small sample. The yard have only two runs at Ascot so far and Colin Keane is operating below his usual level here with a 5% strike rate from 99 rides. Stepping up in class, she holds a KTB Fit of 58 and is well drawn in stall three.
Wild Blossom KTB Fit 57/100
Wild Blossom won her only start over this trip on debut. The small sample means little else can be read into her bare form or her ability to handle good to firm ground. Burke has a solid 9% strike rate here from a big sample while Doyle is operating at 12% from even more rides. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 57, she is drawn in stall seven and should be prominent in a race with plenty of pace.
Shimmering Sun KTB Fit 55/100
Shimmering Sun won her only start over this trip. The yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Ascot from 37 runs. Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle is far less effective here with a 2% strike rate from 54 rides and the small sample means her ability on good to firm remains unknown. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 55, she is drawn wide in stall 25 which adds to the challenge on this straight track.
The rest of the field
Magic EffortKTB Fit 54/100
Magic Effort showed useful speed when winning a 5f maiden on debut then ran creditably in a Listed race when fourth last time. The colt is drawn wide in stall 17 which is far from ideal on this straight track. Trainer Ismail Mohammed has an 8% strike rate from 39 runs at Ascot while jockey Benoit De La Sayette is on 6% from 51 rides here.
DrazindaKTB Fit 54/100
Drazinda made a winning start over this trip on her debut. The trainer has a solid 19% strike rate at Ascot from 36 runs while the jockey is less effective here with a 5% strike rate from 120 rides. With only one run on the board and the going sample too small to judge, this remains a low-confidence profile that needs treating with caution.
Love A GiggleKTB Fit 53/100
Love A Giggle has won both starts at this trip and arrives with an unbeaten record. The small sample means her level of ability remains unclear and the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Ascot offers no strong pointer. Jockey Clifford Lee is operating at a similar 8% strike rate here so she needs to improve to land a Class 1.
NiewiadomaKTB Fit 52/100
Niewiadoma showed useful early speed to win a 5f maiden on debut but was well held in a stronger race last time. The Archie Watson yard has a 6% strike rate from 188 runs at Ascot while Luke Morris is 7% from 262 rides here. With only two career starts and a wide draw in stall 18 this is a very limited sample on which to judge her.
Miss LizzyKTB Fit 52/100
Miss Lizzy has shown mixed form in four starts, winning a minor event before finishing fifth in better company last time. She has yet to place in three runs at this trip and is drawn widest of all in stall 28. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate from 131 runs at Ascot while the jockey has a 9% record from his 11 rides here.
RuivaKTB Fit 52/100
This Wesley Ward newcomer showed a sharp turn of foot when winning a minor event on debut in the States. The yard has a solid 14 percent strike rate at Ascot from 93 runs and the booking of Hernandez is interesting even if he has no previous course experience. Stall 16 on good to firm ground adds an unknown element at this level.
Senorita BonitaKTB Fit 52/100
Senorita Bonita won her only start over this trip and looks to have ability. The Crisford yard has an 8 percent strike rate at Ascot from 84 runs while Buick is operating at 14 percent from 836 rides here. With just one run on the board overall the filly remains hard to weigh up properly at this stage.
Princesse d'OrangeKTB Fit 51/100
Princesse d'Orange has shown mixed form in three starts, winning at this trip on debut before finishing fifth and third in stronger company. The wide draw in stall 20 is a clear negative on a straight track. Trainer David O'Meara has a 4% strike rate from 437 runs at Ascot while jockey Daniel Tudhope records an 8% strike rate from 302 rides here.
CrownbreakerKTB Fit 51/100
Placed second on debut then ran to a similar level when third at Newmarket last time. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Ascot from 44 runs while David Egan is less prolific here with a 5% record from 259 rides. Lightly raced with only two starts data confidence remains low and the wide draw in stall 27 adds another question.
Bint ArchangeKTB Fit 50/100
Bint Archange showed promise when third on debut then won a novice here over this trip last time. The Richard Hughes yard has a modest 3% strike rate from 119 runs at Ascot while Hector Crouch posts a solid 10% from 109 rides at the track. With only two runs in the book and low data confidence this remains a work in progress.
Armor SupremeKTB Fit 50/100
Armor Supreme has won one of his two starts at this trip and showed useful form when chasing home a smart rival on his most recent outing. The draw in stall 19 looks far from ideal on this straight course and the small-sample data means his true level is still hard to pin down. Rossa Ryan has a solid 10% strike rate from 228 Ascot rides while the trainer’s record here is too limited to read anything into.
Big NegotiatorKTB Fit 50/100
Big Negotiator has shown progressive form in three starts and already has a win over this trip on his record. First-time headgear is now fitted after he shaped as though he would benefit from it last time. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Ascot while the small-sample data means any firm view on ground or draw is risky.
Alta ReginaKTB Fit 50/100
Alta Regina made a winning start over this trip on good to firm ground. The form has to be treated with caution given she has only raced once and the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Ascot from 20 runs does little to inspire confidence. James McDonald is a stronger booking with his 7% strike rate from 95 rides at the track.
PershaadaKTB Fit 49/100
Pershaada has shown steady progress in three starts, finishing third then second before landing a win at today's trip. That leaves her with plenty of unknowns at this level and from a wide draw in stall 23. Both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at Ascot.
Your SongKTB Fit 49/100
Your Song has shown enough in two starts to win over this trip on his latest outing. Stall one hands him the rail and a potential advantage if he breaks sharply but the small-sample data means there is not much else to go on. Trainer has only two runs at Ascot so far which is too limited to judge.
VelozeeKTB Fit 49/100
Velozee brings strong recent form of 114 but steps back to 5f today after her last run over 6f. She has won both starts at this trip which is a clear positive though the small sample means her overall ability remains hard to pin down. Trainer P Twomey has an 8% strike rate from 13 runs at Ascot while jockey W J Lee is operating at 11% from 38 rides here.
Havana LightningKTB Fit 49/100
Havana Lightning has won one of his two starts at this trip and showed clear improvement when landing a minor event last time. The form is modest though and he has only two runs in total so remains a fairly unknown quantity. Trainer George Boughey has a 6% strike rate from 123 runs at Ascot while Billy Loughnane is 9% from 114 rides here.
EnvisionKTB Fit 49/100
Envision has shown promise in two runs as a juvenile with a win on good to firm at this trip. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at Ascot from 34 runs offers little encouragement and nor does the jockey's 7% record from nearly 500 rides here. Data confidence is low given the small sample so this one should be treated with caution.
Celtic DisputeKTB Fit 47/100
Celtic Dispute has shown useful early promise with a win and a second from two starts, including success at this trip on his debut. The draw in stall 11 is a negative on this straight track. Trainer Patrick L Biancone has only three runs at Ascot which is too small a sample to judge while jockey Christophe Soumillon has an 8% strike rate from 120 rides here.
VictoriousKTB Fit 46/100
Victorious has won both starts to date and now drops back to 5f for the first time. The trip is an unknown and the small sample means going suitability cannot be judged either. Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate at Ascot from 891 runs while Ryan Moore is on 14% from 1219 rides at the track.
Fast TrackKTB Fit 46/100
Placed second on debut then filled the same spot in a Newbury listed race last time. The yard's 9 percent strike rate from over a thousand runs at Ascot is modest and the jockey is operating at a 6 percent strike rate here. Trip looks fine on the evidence of two placed efforts over five furlongs but with only two runs on the board and low data confidence this remains guesswork.
Kentucky RainKTB Fit 45/100
Kentucky Rain showed promise when second on debut over this trip and should improve from that run. The yard's record here is too small a sample to judge while the jockey has a solid 12 percent strike rate from 111 rides at Ascot. With only one run on the board and limited data overall this is very much a watching brief.
More ChampagneKTB Fit 42/100
More Champagne is a newcomer with just one prior run that produced a win though the bare form is impossible to quantify at this stage. The yard has sent just one runner to Ascot so far which leaves the trainer's local record too small to judge while Velazquez has a 10 percent strike rate from 39 rides at the track. Low confidence assessment that rests mainly on pedigree and sales background.
KTB verdict
Shining Moment is the KTB selection in what is a wide-open Queen Mary with plenty of lightly raced and unexposed types. She has already shown her ability on this course and distance on good to firm ground and benefits from the Ward/Murphy combination which has a respectable record at the track. The wide draw is the main concern but she has the best KTB Fit score and the right profile to take this. Main dangers include the progressive Lover Girl who has already shown form on the surface, the promising Crystal Queen who is well drawn, and Wild Blossom who could make a bold bid if handling the ground.
KTB Selection Shining Moment
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course and distance experience on good to firm ground?
Shining Moment is a course and distance winner and proven on this going at this course.
How does the pace shape look for this Queen Mary Stakes?
The race is likely to be run at a strong pace with several forward-going runners drawn low, posing the question whether the leaders can get away with it or if it will suit those coming from off the pace.
What is the trainer strike rate at Ascot for the handler of the selection Shining Moment?
Wesley Ward has a 14% strike rate at Ascot from 93 runs.
Which runners are stepping up in class for this Group 2?
Crystal Queen, Wild Blossom, Shimmering Sun, Magic Effort, Drazinda, Crownbreaker, Bint Archange, Senorita Bonita, Princesse d'Orange, Pershaada, Victorious, Fast Track, Kentucky Rain and Envision are all stepping up in class.
Who has the highest strike rate at Ascot among the trainers in this field?
Richard and Peter Fahey have a 50% strike rate at Ascot from two runs, while Harry Eustace has 19% from 37 runs.
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