2:30 Naas
This 7f Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden at Naas on good ground brings together an 18-strong field of largely unexposed two-year-olds. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched, with no standout performer on the numbers and several newcomers and lightly-raced runners making up the field. The overall picture is one of a steadily-run, tactical maiden where experience and a good position could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Most of the principals are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, while the race is likely to be decided from mid-pack or better in the straight. The key question is whether any horse can seize the initiative early or if the race will fragment into a bunch finish with the draw and run-style interplaying on the stiff Naas track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lusted KTB Selection56/100Lusted has shown little in two starts so far, finishing fifth then last.
- 2Wecouldavehaditall53/100Wecouldavehaditall showed little on debut when finishing ninth of 12.
- 3Star Glory50/100Star Glory has shown fair ability in three starts and has already placed at this trip.
- 4Coastal Wonder47/100Coastal Wonder showed very little on debut when finishing ninth over 7½f.
- 5Autumn Gray47/100Autumn Gray is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 6Estado De La Luna47/100Estado De La Luna is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 12% strike rate from 640 runs at Naas.
- 7Scarlet Dream47/100Scarlet Dream showed only modest form when finishing seventh on debut over 6f.
- 8Maeda Matsu47/100Maeda Matsu showed some promise when second on debut over 6f here.
- 9Miss Twilight45/100Miss Twilight showed fair promise when third on debut over 7½f.
- 10Reyika45/100Reyika is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and connections.
- 11Silver Kiss45/100Silver Kiss has shown steady promise with two placed efforts over this trip from as many starts.
- 12Bex Noir44/100Bex Noir has only one run to go on and that came over a mile, so dropping back to 7f today asks a fresh question.
- 13Lunar Empress44/100Lunar Empress has shown some ability in two runs, finishing second on debut then fifth last time, and she has already placed at this trip.
- 14Green Nature43/100Green Nature is a newcomer from a yard that has a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from a big sample of runners.
- 15Pas De Deux43/100Pas De Deux is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate from 428 runs at Naas.
- 16Armarone's Girl41/100Armarone's Girl showed only modest form when sixth on her debut over 7½f.
- 17Churchill Bond41/100Churchill Bond showed little after a slow start on debut over 7.5f.
- 18Arizonaneargalway40/100Arizonaneargalway has shown little in three starts so far with a string of modest efforts behind useful types.
The contenders
Lusted KTB Fit 56/100
Lusted has shown little in two starts so far, finishing fifth then last. He drops back from a mile to 7f today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Naas from 17 runs. Andrew Slattery takes the ride on this two-year-old who carries the KTB Selection tag despite the modest form figures of 05. With a low draw in stall 4 he should be able to secure a decent early position in a race where being handy pays. The going remains unproven after one run on good.
Wecouldavehaditall KTB Fit 53/100
Wecouldavehaditall showed little on debut when finishing ninth of 12. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate from 18 runs at Naas but this is a lightly-raced 2-year-old with only one run on the board and data confidence remains low. Trip and ground both look unknown at this stage. Usually held up, this filly will be produced late and will need the steadily-run pace to play to her strengths. Nathan Crosse is aboard from draw 12.
Star Glory KTB Fit 50/100
Star Glory has shown fair ability in three starts and has already placed at this trip. The form figures of 625 suggest she is competitive at this level without yet finding the win. Trainer Noel Meade has a 13 percent strike rate from 1182 runs at Naas while the small sample on good ground leaves her suitability unconfirmed. Usually held up with medium confidence, she should come from off the pace in a race where late efforts are likely to be favoured. Gavin Ryan rides from a low draw in stall 2.
Coastal Wonder KTB Fit 47/100
Coastal Wonder showed very little on debut when finishing ninth over 7½f. Dropping back to 7f poses a fresh question while the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Naas from 29 runs offers no particular encouragement. With only one run on the board and a small-sample going note the form read must be treated with real caution. Rory Mulligan takes the 5lb claim from draw 9 for a trainer-jockey combination that has shown positive A/E figures.
Autumn Gray KTB Fit 47/100
Autumn Gray is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The Eddie and Patrick Harty yard has an 8 percent strike rate from 71 runs at Naas. Jamie Powell takes the ride. By Saxon Warrior, she represents a stable with an 11% strike rate with this jockey combination. Drawn in stall 10, she will need to overcome the lack of racecourse experience in a steadily-run affair.
The rest of the field
Estado De La LunaKTB Fit 47/100
Estado De La Luna is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 12% strike rate from 640 runs at Naas. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable is capable of readying one for a debut but the wide draw in stall 18 adds a clear negative on this stiff track. With low data confidence the rest relies on pedigree and sales background which offer no strong pointers either way.
Scarlet DreamKTB Fit 47/100
Scarlet Dream showed only modest form when finishing seventh on debut over 6f. This is a lightly-raced newcomer with just one run on the board so the data confidence remains low and any assessment has to be cautious. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate from 314 runs at Naas.
Maeda MatsuKTB Fit 47/100
Maeda Matsu showed some promise when second on debut over 6f here. The step up to 7f now asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run on the board. Trainer Sheila Lavery has a modest 5% strike rate from 191 runs at Naas while jockey Rory Cleary has limited course experience. Usually held up, she has already placed on good ground and at the course.
Miss TwilightKTB Fit 45/100
Miss Twilight showed fair promise when third on debut over 7½f. She now drops back to 7f where she has already placed once from one run at the trip. Trainer and jockey records at Naas are too small to judge while the going remains an unknown on this lightly-raced filly.
ReyikaKTB Fit 45/100
Reyika is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and connections. The yard has a modest 9% strike-rate at Naas from a big sample of runners. Ben Coen takes the ride but the data confidence remains low given the complete lack of form.
Silver KissKTB Fit 45/100
Silver Kiss has shown steady promise with two placed efforts over this trip from as many starts. The yard's 12% strike rate from a huge number of Naas runners is modest by their standards. With only two career runs everything else remains largely unknown. Usually held up, she has placed on good ground.
Bex NoirKTB Fit 44/100
Bex Noir has only one run to go on and that came over a mile, so dropping back to 7f today asks a fresh question. The yard's record at Naas is modest with no winners from 19 runs. Data confidence is low and the going remains unknown from such a small sample.
Lunar EmpressKTB Fit 44/100
Lunar Empress has shown some ability in two runs, finishing second on debut then fifth last time, and she has already placed at this trip. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at Naas from a huge sample suggests she will need to improve to take this. With only two runs on the clock and too few to judge the going, this remains a low-confidence profile that needs treating with caution. Usually held up.
Green NatureKTB Fit 43/100
Green Nature is a newcomer from a yard that has a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from a big sample of runners. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable is respected with these types and Declan McDonogh is a sensible booking, but with no racecourse form to go on the colt's ability remains entirely unknown. Low confidence assessment that rests on pedigree and sales background.
Pas De DeuxKTB Fit 43/100
Pas De Deux is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate from 428 runs at Naas. With no racecourse form the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background that has not been supplied here. Data confidence remains low so any conclusions are tentative.
Armarone's GirlKTB Fit 41/100
Armarone's Girl showed only modest form when sixth on her debut over 7½f. She drops back slightly in trip now with a wide draw to contend with. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Naas and the small-sample data means this is very much a watching brief.
Churchill BondKTB Fit 41/100
Churchill Bond showed little after a slow start on debut over 7.5f. He now drops back to 7f from a wide draw with only one run in the book. The trainer has a 15% strike rate from 54 runs at Naas while data confidence remains low given the small sample.
ArizonaneargalwayKTB Fit 40/100
Arizonaneargalway has shown little in three starts so far with a string of modest efforts behind useful types. The trip looks about right having tried it twice already yet the wide draw in stall 11 adds to the negatives on a track where the trainer's 5% strike rate from 252 runs is modest. With only three runs on the board this remains very much a watching brief. Typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Lusted is named the KTB Selection. Despite modest form figures of 05 she brings the highest Fit rating and the benefit of a low draw in a race that should reward being handy. The drop back to 7f may suit while the trainer-jockey combination has shown positive returns at the track. Main dangers are Star Glory, who has already placed at the trip and represents a yard with a strong Naas record, and the promising debutante Maeda Matsu who was second over 6f here. Several other lightly-raced fillies and newcomers add depth but data confidence remains generally low across the field.
KTB Selection Lusted
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already placed at this course and distance combination?
Maeda Matsu ran once here and finished second over 6f.
How many runners are held up according to the run-style notes?
Several principals including Wecouldavehaditall, Star Glory, Maeda Matsu, Silver Kiss and Lunar Empress are noted as usually held up.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Naas among those represented?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at Naas from 640 runs.
What is the KTB Fit rating of the selection Lusted?
56/100
Which horse drops back in trip from a mile having already contested that distance?
Lusted drops back from a mile to 7f while Bex Noir also drops from a mile.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies