2:37 Chester
This Class 4 handicap over 1m2f70y at Chester on good to soft ground brings together a field of nine three-year-olds, several of whom are lightly raced and open to improvement. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Simon Pierre heading the list on 61, followed by Silver State and Colourband both on 57. The race looks competitive on paper, with plenty of runners holding solid recent form but also facing questions about trip, ground or class.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo, with several prominent runners likely to contest the lead from low draws. Simon Pierre, Silver State and Morbeh can all go forward, while Home Hero from stall one will look to secure the rail early. The key question is whether the race will be run at a searching enough gallop to expose those who have yet to prove their stamina over the distance.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Simon Pierre KTB Selection61/100Simon Pierre is a fair 3-year-old who showed little on debut before winning a 1m maiden last time.
- 2Silver State57/100Silver State is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record of 331152 that includes two wins.
- 3Colourband57/100Colourband is a fair 3 year old who has won one of his two starts at this trip and showed useful improvement when landing a handicap on reappearance.
- 4Magic Trip52/100Magic Trip is a fair 3 year old who has shown mixed form since his debut win on this ground.
- 5Mr Seagull50/100Mr Seagull is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form of 200-44 that shows consistency at this level.
- 6Valpovo50/100Valpovo showed fair form when winning a 7f maiden on debut last season before finishing a modest third on his only start this year.
- 7Morbeh50/100Fair performer who arrives in decent nick after winning last time out over a longer trip.
- 8Home Hero48/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress in four starts and was a creditable third over this trip on his only previous visit to Chester.
- 9Asia Force45/100Asia Force has shown steady progress in three starts this year and arrives off the back of two placed efforts at this trip.
The contenders
Simon Pierre KTB Fit 61/100
Simon Pierre is a fair three-year-old who showed little on debut before winning a 1m maiden last time out. He now steps up in trip which asks a fresh question of stamina, though the yard and rider both hold solid records at Chester. The trainer posts a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.54 from 13 runs, while the jockey operates at 16% with an A/E of 1.35 from 38 rides. He has had just one run on good to soft ground without placing and has no previous course form. Overall he arrives with momentum from his recent success and the combination of trainer and jockey stats at this venue adds to his appeal.
Silver State KTB Fit 57/100
Silver State is a fair three-year-old boasting a solid recent record of 331152 that includes two wins. He acts on good to soft ground having won his only start on it and has been placed when tried at this trip. Dropping in class looks a positive and the yard holds an 18% strike rate at Chester with an A/E of 1.01 from 11 runs, though the jockey has had only two rides here so far and is yet to score. He has no previous course form but his consistency and proven ability on the surface make him a major player from a good draw in stall two.
Colourband KTB Fit 57/100
Colourband is a fair three-year-old who has won one of his two starts at this trip and showed useful improvement when landing a handicap on reappearance. He ran to a similar level when sixth last time though that run suggests he will need to improve again to take this. The Crisfords have a solid 15% strike rate at Chester with an A/E of 0.77 from 20 runs while Davies is operating at 16% with an A/E of 0.96 from 51 rides. He is unproven on good to soft ground and has no course form on record, so the surface remains a slight concern.
Magic Trip KTB Fit 52/100
Magic Trip is a fair three-year-old who has shown mixed form since his debut win on this ground. He has been well held in two starts at this trip and now tries headgear for the first time. Balding has a strong 21% strike rate at Chester with an A/E of 1.09 from 615 runs while Watson is operating at 15% with an A/E of 0.81 from 109 rides. He has no previous course form but his win on good to soft gives him a clear foothold on the conditions.
The rest of the field
Mr SeagullKTB Fit 50/100
Mr Seagull is a fair three-year-old with solid recent form of 200-44 that shows consistency at this level. He has the benefit of a good draw in stall 6 and trainer Hugo Palmer's strong 17% strike rate from 279 runs at Chester gives the yard plenty of course know-how, though jockey Oisin Orr is less effective here with a 3% strike rate from 31 rides while the trip remains a question as the horse has failed to score in one previous attempt over it.
ValpovoKTB Fit 50/100
Valpovo showed fair form when winning a 7f maiden on debut last season before finishing a modest third on his only start this year. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 473 runs at Chester while the jockey is 0-9 at the track and he is unproven on good to soft ground.
MorbehKTB Fit 50/100
Morbeh is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after winning last time out over a longer trip. He drops back to 1m2f where he has already won once from three starts and holds solid claims from stall four. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 19% strike rate here at Chester though he has had just one run on good to soft without placing and is stepping up in class.
Home HeroKTB Fit 48/100
Home Hero is a modest performer who has shown steady progress in four starts and was a creditable third over this trip on his only previous visit to Chester. Stall one hands him the rail and should help him get a good position early. Trainer Hugo Palmer has a solid 17% strike rate here from 279 runs while Jason Hart posts a 14% record from 220 rides at the track though he is unproven on good to soft ground.
Asia ForceKTB Fit 45/100
Asia Force has shown steady progress in three starts this year and arrives off the back of two placed efforts at this trip. The form reads well enough for a fair 3-year-old but he has been beaten on both handicap attempts and now steps up in class. Burke’s modest record at Chester with a 7% strike rate from 203 runs and a wide draw in stall nine are both negatives and he is unproven on good to soft ground.
KTB verdict
Simon Pierre looks to have been handed a good opportunity as the KTB Selection. A fair three-year-old who improved to win a 1m maiden last time, he benefits from the yard and rider’s strong Chester records and should be suited by the step up in trip if he stays. His recent momentum and the trainer-jockey combination at the track give him the edge. The main dangers are Silver State, who drops in class with a good recent record and proven ability on the surface, and Colourband, who showed improvement when winning a handicap on reappearance but needs to step up again. Magic Trip cannot be entirely ruled out with first-time headgear and the Balding factor at Chester.
KTB Selection Simon Pierre
This is the narrative read of the 2:37 Chester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Chester in this race?
Magic Trip, with Andrew Balding posting a 21% strike rate at Chester from 615 runs.
How many of these runners are proven on good to soft ground?
Three runners have form on good to soft: Silver State (1 win from 1), Magic Trip (1 win from 1) and Simon Pierre, Mr Seagull and Morbeh have each had one run without winning or placing.
Which horse has previous course form at Chester?
Only Home Hero has run at the track, finishing a creditable third over this trip on his only visit.
Who holds the best recent form figures among the principals?
Silver State, whose recent form reads 331152 and includes two wins.
What is the class situation for the top two in the KTB Fit rankings?
Silver State is dropping in class while Simon Pierre steps up in trip having won a maiden last time.
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