2:40 Haydock
This Class 4 restricted novice at Haydock over 6f 212y on soft ground features a field of seven two-year-olds, several with limited experience and questions to answer about the trip and surface. The KTB Fit scores suggest a fairly modest event overall, with Flying Pirate heading the numbers on 60 and a clear gap back to Maliqui on 54. Recent form is thin for most, and the race looks set to revolve around how the uncontested lead is handled and whether any of the held-up types can bridge the gap on soft ground.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove hard for closers to peg back. Reflect On Glory is the clear front-runner on his known run-style and is likely to bowl along in front from the inside draw. The remainder, including the two most fancied principals, tend to be held up and will need to produce their efforts late, raising the key question of whether the leader can get away on this surface or if the closers will be able to close the gap in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Flying Pirate KTB Selection60/100
Flying Pirate is a fair 2yo who showed promise when winning on soft ground at Windsor on debut before finishing third in a stronger race last time. He steps up in trip for the first time today and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Haydock, with Eve Johnson Houghton recording an 11% strike rate and Charles Bishop a 12% strike rate at the track. He has shown he handles soft ground, having won from one run on it, and drops in class here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to come from off the pace against the likely uncontested leader.
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2Maliqui54/100
Maliqui showed some promise when fifth on debut over today's trip. The small sample means we know little about how he handles soft ground or whether he can improve past that initial effort. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at Haydock, with Charlie Fellowes operating at 16% and Tom Marquand at 15% at the venue. He is unproven on the ground having had no runs on soft. Usually held up and producing his effort late on the limited evidence available, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get first run.
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3Frankie Power46/100
Frankie Power is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The Tom Dascombe yard has a solid 16% strike rate from 785 runs at Haydock. William Cox remains winless from 17 rides at the track. By Perfect Power, he has a 7% overall win rate associated with that sire from 60 runners. He has no course win on record and will need to overcome the yard and jockey figures at Haydock to make an impact on debut.
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4Reflect On Glory44/100
Reflect On Glory has shown fair form in two runs, finishing third then winning last time out. He steps up in trip today to a distance he has not tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The Burke yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Haydock while Clifford Lee is operating at 10%. He is unproven on the ground having had no runs on soft. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is the one likely to set the uncontested lead from the inside draw in a race where that could be a significant advantage.
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5Perfect Gal44/100
Perfect Gal is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The Rebecca Menzies yard has a modest 7% strike-rate at Haydock from 76 runs while David Allan is similarly ordinary here with an 8% record from 620 rides. Low data confidence means any firm conclusions would be premature.
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6All I Know41/100
All I Know showed only modest form when fifth on debut and has a small sample to judge from. The yard has a poor record at Haydock and this lightly-raced colt is being asked a fresh question on soft ground. Jockey Sam James has a modest strike rate here from a big volume of rides. He is dropping in class.
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7Lopefernza41/100
Lopefernza has shown only modest form in two starts so far and is stepping up in trip having failed to make an impact over this distance last time. The yard's record at Haydock is modest at 5% from 166 runs while Probert fares better with an 11% strike rate from 234 rides here. Data confidence is low given the small sample and going suitability remains unknown. He is dropping in class.
KTB verdict
Flying Pirate is the KTB Selection. A fair 2yo who has already shown he handles soft ground with a winning debut at Windsor, he looked promising when third in stronger company last time and now drops in class while trying headgear and extra distance. The combination of his proven ability on the surface, the trainer and jockey's solid Haydock records and his held-up run-style that could suit if the leader overdoes it gives him the strongest profile. The main dangers are likely to be Reflect On Glory, who can take the uncontested lead and make this a test, and Maliqui, who showed initial promise but has plenty to prove on soft ground.
KTB Selection Flying Pirate
This is the narrative read of the 2:40 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Haydock results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven on soft ground?
Flying Pirate, who has 1 win from 1 on soft (1 placed).
Who is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Reflect On Glory, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Haydock in this field?
Tom Dascombe with a 16% strike rate from 785 runs.
Which principals are dropping in class?
Flying Pirate and All I Know.
How many runners are unproven on soft ground?
Maliqui, Reflect On Glory, Perfect Gal, All I Know and Lopefernza have had no runs on soft.
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