2:42 Uttoxeter
This Class 5 mares' handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter over 1m7f168y on good ground features a field of 12 where recent form and first-time headgear applications dominate the narrative. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Miracles Do Happen heading the ratings on 66, closely followed by Lady Fortune on 64 and a pair on 59. Overall the numbers point to a competitive renewal in which proven course winners and those dropping in class or trip will be key, though the modest yard record at the track for several contenders adds an extra layer of uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence, suggesting a possible front-runner but on limited evidence. Lady Fortune and No Risk Today both tend to make the running or race prominently, which could see them contest the early lead in what is otherwise an open pace profile. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fragment, allowing hold-up types such as Jukebox Annie and Granny B to close late on good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Miracles Do Happen KTB Selection66/100Useful performer who showed his best form when winning a similar race at Warwick last spring.
- 2Lady Fortune64/100Fair mare who has won both starts since returning from a break, including over this trip and on this track.
- 3Prettylady59/100Useful performer who arrives in decent form after two wins earlier this season.
- 4No Risk Today59/100Fair performer who showed some encouragement when runner-up over this trip at Worcester last time.
- 5Dotties Promise58/100Dotties Promise is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on good ground.
- 6Culligran56/100Fair performer who ran creditably when second at Worcester last time and has a solid career record of one win from nine at today's trip.
- 7Northern Rose49/100Northern Rose is a fair performer who has been placed five times at Uttoxeter without winning and has shown consistent form this year with two seconds from her…
- 8Miss Oreo46/100Useful mare who has shown enough in the past to compete at this level but has been out of form for some time and failed to complete on her last two starts.
- 9Curious Mrs Fox45/100Curious Mrs Fox is a fair performer who has been consistent enough to place on good ground but remains winless after 30 starts.
- 10Jukebox Annie44/100Jukebox Annie is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of pulled-up efforts mixed in.
- 11Granny B43/100Modest performer who has been placed three times at this trip and four times on good ground without winning.
- 12Myfavouritesister36/100Modest performer who has shown little spark this season with a string of ordinary efforts.
The contenders
Miracles Do Happen KTB Fit 66/100
Miracles Do Happen is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning a similar race at Warwick last spring. He has been below that level on both starts this season and now tries first-time headgear while dropping back in trip. The yard has a solid 22% strike rate at Uttoxeter with an A/E of 1.42 from 23 runs. Billy Aprahamian and James Bowen combine with an 8/47 record, 17% strike rate and A/E of 1.19 plus £40.33 LSP. He has one win from five runs on good ground with two placed efforts and arrives with recent form figures of 061-8P. As the KTB selection he is taken to bounce back in a first-time hood.
Lady Fortune KTB Fit 64/100
Lady Fortune is a fair mare who has won both starts since returning from a break, including over this trip and on this track. She handles good ground with two wins from six runs and two placed efforts, and has shown enough to suggest she belongs in this grade. First-time headgear is an unknown but the yard's small sample at Uttoxeter, showing 100% strike rate from one run with A/E 11, gives little guidance either way. Isabelle Ryder claims 5 lb and has a 16% strike rate at the track with A/E 0.98 from 19 rides. She tends to make the running or race on the pace according to limited evidence and her recent form reads 5P-141. Course winner from one visit.
Prettylady KTB Fit 59/100
Prettylady is a useful performer who arrives in decent form after two wins earlier this season. She drops back to a trip she has won over before and has already shown she acts on good ground with one win from two runs and one placed effort. First-time headgear is an interesting addition while the yard maintain a solid record at Uttoxeter with 15% strike rate and A/E 1.19 from 157 runs. Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero team up with Jack Tudor on a 3/22 record, 14% strike rate and A/E 0.71 with minus £5.50 LSP. Recent form is 7P-114 and she is dropping in class.
No Risk Today KTB Fit 59/100
No Risk Today is a fair performer who showed some encouragement when runner-up over this trip at Worcester last time. He has run only once here and finished eighth, while the yard's solid 17% strike-rate at Uttoxeter with A/E 0.96 from 493 runs offers some hope. First-time headgear is now fitted and the trip looks suitable enough. Fergal O'Brien and Jack Hogan have a 49/329 record, 15% strike rate and A/E 0.92 with minus £102.59 LSP; the jockey himself shows 15% strike rate at the track with A/E 1.25 from 60 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence and his recent form is 0-6682. Placed once from four runs on good ground.
Dotties Promise KTB Fit 58/100
Dotties Promise is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on good ground with one win from four runs and one placed effort. She has shown little spark in five runs this year and remains hard to fancy on recent evidence. The trainer has a 25% strike rate at Uttoxeter with A/E 1.85 from a small sample of four runs. Susan Corbett and Nathan Moscrop combine on a 33/248 record, 13% strike rate and A/E 1.18 plus £51.45 LSP, though the jockey has a modest 2% strike rate at the track with A/E 0.21 from 47 rides. She is dropping in class with recent form figures of 0606-6.
The rest of the field
CulligranKTB Fit 56/100
Culligran is a fair performer who ran creditably when second at Worcester last time and has a solid career record of one win from nine at today's trip. He drops back from 2m4f which should suit, while he also has a placed effort on good ground from nine attempts. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Uttoxeter from 66 runs with A/E 0.65 is a negative.
Northern RoseKTB Fit 49/100
Northern Rose is a fair performer who has been placed five times at Uttoxeter without winning and has shown consistent form this year with two seconds from her last three starts. She drops back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance before, while the first-time headgear is an unknown that could sharpen her up. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at the track with A/E 0.74 from 166 runs is another factor to weigh against her solid placed record on good ground from eight of 18 runs.
Miss OreoKTB Fit 46/100
Miss Oreo is a useful mare who has shown enough in the past to compete at this level but has been out of form for some time and failed to complete on her last two starts. She has never won or placed on good ground from eight attempts and the trainer is still seeking a first Uttoxeter winner from 14 runners with 0% strike rate. First-time headgear is now fitted as she tries this trip again where she has placed but not won.
Curious Mrs FoxKTB Fit 45/100
Curious Mrs Fox is a fair performer who has been consistent enough to place on good ground but remains winless after 30 starts. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 34 runs at Uttoxeter while the 5 lb claimer is making his first visit to the track. She has tried this trip twice without success and arrives in modest recent form.
Jukebox AnnieKTB Fit 44/100
Jukebox Annie is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of pulled-up efforts mixed in. She has never won or placed on good ground from seven attempts and is also 0-3 at this trip. First-time headgear is reached for on her debut at Uttoxeter where the trainer has a 0% strike rate from four runs.
Granny BKTB Fit 43/100
Granny B is a modest performer who has been placed three times at this trip and four times on good ground without winning. Consistent enough at Uttoxeter with a second and two thirds from five runs here yet the recent form of 63-P57 shows she is struggling to finish the job off. First-time headgear is now tried.
MyfavouritesisterKTB Fit 36/100
Myfavouritesister is a modest performer who has shown little spark this season with a string of ordinary efforts. She drops back in trip having looked stretched over three miles last time and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has only a tiny sample at Uttoxeter with 0% strike rate from three runs.
KTB verdict
Miracles Do Happen is the KTB selection. A useful performer who showed his best form when winning a similar race at Warwick last spring, he is now fitted with first-time headgear while dropping back in trip and represents a yard with a solid 22% strike rate at Uttoxeter. The selection has been below that Warwick level on both starts this season but the numbers suggest he can return to form in a race where several others also sport first-time headgear. Lady Fortune and Prettylady head the main dangers, the former having won both starts since a break including over course and distance, the latter arriving in decent form after two wins and dropping in class.
KTB Selection Miracles Do Happen
This is the narrative read of the 2:42 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both its starts since returning from a break including over course and distance?
Lady Fortune
How many times has Northern Rose been placed at Uttoxeter without winning?
Five
What is the trainer's strike rate at Uttoxeter for the yard of Miracles Do Happen?
22%
Which two runners tend to make the running or race prominently according to the limited evidence available?
Lady Fortune and No Risk Today
How many times has Miss Oreo run on good ground without winning or placing?
Eight
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