2:45 Carlisle
This Class 6 handicap division at Carlisle over 5f182y on good to soft ground features a field of nine limited performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 52 and 29. The race looks modest on paper with little depth to the form, and the numbers point to a contest that could be decided by which horse handles the sharp track best from its draw while adapting to the drop in trip or class for several runners.
How the race shapes up
With several prominent or front-running types in the field and a pace shape that suggests a solid gallop, the race is likely to be run at a decent clip on this sharp Carlisle track. Howzak and Stormy Pearl are among those who can go forward early, while Maynora from stall two will look to find a position without getting caught wide. The key question is whether any horse can quicken off the pace on good to soft ground or if the race will be dominated by those towards the front end.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Maynora KTB Selection52/100Limited performer who has shown just flashes of ability, most notably when winning over this trip on good to soft ground.
- 2Howzak50/100Limited horse who has won four times at this trip but is 0-15 in the last two seasons and ran poorly on his most recent start.
- 3Little Beck Annie49/100Limited filly who has shown very little in seven runs and was well beaten on her return last time.
- 4Great Success49/100Modest performer who has failed to build on a placed effort at this trip on his final start last season.
- 5Stormy Pearl46/100Limited performer who has been placed twice from five runs at Carlisle without winning.
- 6April Diamond44/100Limited performer who has shown little in three runs to date.
- 7Belling The Cat39/100Limited performer who has shown just one placed effort in seven starts and drops back to 5f after a poor run over 7f last time.
- 8Wee Dresser39/100Wee Dresser has shown little in three starts to date and sits right at the bottom of the limited class ladder.
- 9Invincible Annice29/100Limited performer who has struggled this year and finished no better than eighth on her last four starts.
The contenders
Maynora KTB Fit 52/100
Maynora is a limited performer who has shown just flashes of ability, most notably when winning over this trip on good to soft ground. She ran respectably when fourth on her only visit to Carlisle and the yard and jockey both have solid records at the track. Stall two looks no help on a sharp track. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 552514 and holds an official rating that places her competitively in this company. Craig Lidster has an 11% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 0.88 from 37 runs while Alex Jary has a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.05 from 17 rides. She has a 1 win from 1 on good to soft with 1 placed.
Howzak KTB Fit 50/100
Howzak is a limited horse who has won four times at this trip but is 0-15 in the last two seasons and ran poorly on his most recent start. Trainer has yet to land a winner from 16 runners at Carlisle while the jockey operates at a modest 8% strike rate here. Placed twice from three runs on good to soft so the ground is fine but overall form suggests he will struggle to be competitive. The eight-year-old has recent form figures of 79-148 and brings placed form on good to soft. Liam Bailey has a 0% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 0 from 16 runs while Jack Garritty has an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.71 from 145 rides. He holds no course form on record.
Little Beck Annie KTB Fit 49/100
Little Beck Annie is a limited filly who has shown very little in seven runs and was well beaten on her return last time. Dropping back to 5f today raises a fresh question while first-time headgear is also an unknown. Trainer has a 10% strike rate at Carlisle from 59 runs while jockey is operating at 20% from 45 rides here. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 6764-7 and steps back in trip having shown modest form at longer distances. Peter Niven has a 10% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 0.91 from 59 runs while Mark Winn has a 20% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.61 from 45 rides. She has 1 run on good to soft with no win or place and brings first-time headgear.
Great Success KTB Fit 49/100
Great Success is a modest performer who has failed to build on a placed effort at this trip on his final start last season. Both recent runs this year have been poor and he now drops into a Class 6 for the first time. The Fahey yard has an 8% strike rate here from 12 runners while Orr is 10% from 67 rides at the track. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 384-00 and is unproven on good to soft ground. Richard and Peter Fahey have an 8% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 0.82 from 12 runs while Oisin Orr has a 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.71 from 67 rides. He brings no course form on record.
The rest of the field
Stormy PearlKTB Fit 46/100
Stormy Pearl is a limited performer who has been placed twice from five runs at Carlisle without winning. Recent form is ordinary and the yard’s modest 6% strike-rate here adds little confidence. Goes well enough on good to soft but overall record suggests she will struggle to get involved. The six-year-old has recent form figures of 86-254 and holds 1 win from 7 on good to soft with 4 placed.
April DiamondKTB Fit 44/100
April Diamond is a limited performer who has shown little in three runs to date. Steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance twice already. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate here at Carlisle. The five-year-old has recent form figures of 765, is dropping in class and is unproven on good to soft ground.
Belling The CatKTB Fit 39/100
Belling The Cat is a limited performer who has shown just one placed effort in seven starts and drops back to 5f after a poor run over 7f last time. Stall nine looks no help on a stiff track like Carlisle and the yard has failed to land a blow in six runs here. Jockey Aiden Brookes has a solid recent record at the course but that is the only positive in an otherwise modest profile. The three-year-old has recent form figures of -62454 and is unproven on good to soft ground.
Wee DresserKTB Fit 39/100
Wee Dresser has shown little in three starts to date and sits right at the bottom of the limited class ladder. The yard's poor record at Carlisle offers no encouragement and neither does the jockey's complete lack of success from 52 rides here. Trip and ground both remain unproven questions at this stage. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 783, is dropping in class and has no course form on record.
Invincible AnniceKTB Fit 29/100
Invincible Annice is a limited performer who has struggled this year and finished no better than eighth on her last four starts. She has run just once at Carlisle and showed little, while the trainer's modest 4% strike rate here from 162 runs adds little confidence. First-time headgear is a possible plus on good to soft ground where she has won once from five starts. The four-year-old has recent form figures of 9-8980.
KTB verdict
Maynora is the KTB Selection and stands out as the one with the clearest flashes of ability in a modest field, particularly having won over this trip on good to soft ground and shown respectable form on her sole Carlisle run. The yard and jockey hold solid track records which further strengthens the case, even if stall two is not ideal on a sharp track. Main dangers include Stormy Pearl with her placed efforts at the course and Howzak if he can rediscover some of his previous winning form at the trip, though both have limitations. Little Beck Annie with first-time headgear and Great Success dropping in class add further depth but look short of the selection on current form.
KTB Selection Maynora
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course experience at Carlisle and how did it perform?
Maynora has run once here, finishing fourth with no win or place, while Stormy Pearl has five runs at the track including two second-place finishes with no win. Invincible Annice finished tenth on her only visit.
Which runners are making their first start in first-time headgear?
Little Beck Annie and Invincible Annice are both wearing first-time headgear.
Who are the trainers with the strongest strike rates at Carlisle in this race?
Craig Lidster has an 11% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 0.88 from 37 runs, Peter Niven has a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.91 from 59 runs, and Mark Winn has a 20% strike rate with an A/E of 1.61 from 45 rides.
Which horses are proven on good to soft ground?
Maynora has 1 win from 1 on good to soft with 1 placed, Howzak is placed 2 of 3 on good to soft with no win, Stormy Pearl has 1 win from 7 on good to soft with 4 placed, and Invincible Annice has 1 win from 5 on good to soft with 1 placed.
Which horses are dropping in class or trip for this race?
Great Success is dropping in class for the first time, April Diamond is stepping up in trip, Belling The Cat is dropping back to 5f, and Wee Dresser is dropping in class.
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