2:45 Chester
This Class 4 British Stallion Studs EBF confined maiden for horses with no more than three previous runs takes place over 6f17y at Chester on good ground. The field of just five two-year-olds features a mixture of lightly raced types, with three of them having shown placed form already. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, underlining that while Pure Grit heads the numbers there is scope for the race to develop in several directions.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a clear front-runner. Shakwaa is the one horse with early-pace tendencies and from stall 2 could attempt to make the running or race prominently. The three held-up runners — Therewearethen, Sovereigns High and Independent Roze — are likely to be seen with something to do in the straight, posing the key question of whether the race will be run to suit those coming from off the pace or if the prominent types can dictate matters.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Pure Grit KTB Selection57/100Pure Grit has shown consistent promise with two placed efforts at this trip from as many starts and looks fairly treated on that bare form.
- 2Therewearethen55/100Therewearethen has shown very little in two starts to date, finishing ninth then last.
- 3Sovereigns High50/100Sovereigns High has shown fair form in two runs, finishing third on debut then eighth last time, and has already placed at this trip.
- 4Shakwaa44/100Shakwaa showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip and the form looks reasonable for a Class 4.
- 5Independent Roze40/100Independent Roze showed modest early pace when fifth on debut over this trip.
The contenders
Pure Grit KTB Fit 57/100
Pure Grit has shown consistent promise with two placed efforts at this trip from as many starts and looks fairly treated on that bare form. The colt has already run well here at Chester when second on debut and his yard continue to fire at a solid 21% strike rate at the track. He remains open to improvement as a lightly raced 2-year-old but has only fair ability on the figures. Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy team up with a combined trainer-jockey record of 499 wins from 2598 rides at 19% strike rate. Pure Grit has been placed on both his runs on good ground and drops in class here from stall 4.
Therewearethen KTB Fit 55/100
Therewearethen has shown very little in two starts to date, finishing ninth then last. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Chester from a decent-sized sample. Trip and ground both remain unproven with such a small base. Jennie Candlish and George Wood combine with a 28-from-199 record at 14%. The colt is stepping up in class, is drawn in stall 1, and is usually held up to produce his effort late on the limited evidence available.
Sovereigns High KTB Fit 50/100
Sovereigns High has shown fair form in two runs, finishing third on debut then eighth last time, and has already placed at this trip. The Ralph Beckett yard posts an 18% strike rate at Chester from a decent-sized sample. With only two career starts the colt remains very lightly raced and the small-sample data confidence means his true level is still unclear. Edward Greatrex takes the ride with a 16% strike rate at the track. Sovereigns High is held up to produce his effort late and is unproven on good ground from stall 5.
The rest of the field
ShakwaaKTB Fit 44/100
Shakwaa showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip and the form looks reasonable for a Class 4. Stall 2 is a plus at Chester but the small sample means we still have plenty to learn about him. Ed Walker has an 11% strike-rate here from 37 runs while Kieran Shoemark's record at the track is not supplied. The colt tends to make the running or race on the pace and is unproven on good ground.
Independent RozeKTB Fit 40/100
Independent Roze showed modest early pace when fifth on debut over this trip. The yard's 1% strike rate from 171 runs at Chester offers little encouragement. With only one run on the clock and a small sample on the ground the form is hard to weigh up. Lisa Williamson and Faye McManoman team up from stall 3 and the filly is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Pure Grit is the KTB Selection. He has the best recent form of the principals having been placed on both starts, including when runner-up on his only visit to Chester, and he remains open to further progress as a lightly raced colt from a yard that continues in excellent form at the track. The selection drops in class and should be suited by the good ground. His main dangers are Shakwaa, who showed fair promise on debut, and Sovereigns High, who retains the potential to improve as a very lightly raced sort for Ralph Beckett.
KTB Selection Pure Grit
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Chester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already shown placed form at Chester?
Pure Grit, who finished second on his debut here.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Chester among those represented?
Andrew Balding with a 21% strike rate from 625 runs.
How many of these runners are proven on good ground?
Only Pure Grit, who has been placed on both starts on good going.
Which horse is stepping up in class?
Therewearethen.
Who is the most lightly raced horse in the field?
Pure Grit, Sovereigns High, Shakwaa and Independent Roze have all had either one or two runs, with Therewearethen also on two starts.
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