2:45 York
The William Hill Summer Stakes is a competitive Group 3 for fillies and mares over six furlongs at York on good to firm ground. A field of 13 lines up, with KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched at the top end, highlighting a race where class, course aptitude and conditions will all play their part. Flora Of Bermuda heads the KTB figures on 70, just ahead of Royal Fixation on 69, with the remainder of the principals clustered between 65 and 64.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly-run race with several prominent runners likely to contest the lead early. Flora Of Bermuda from stall 1 and Spicy Marg from stall 2 are both typically forward-going, while Royal Fixation and America Queen can also race handily. The key question is whether the rail draw proves an advantage on good to firm or whether those drawn higher can cross and secure a more favourable position without using up too much energy.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Flora Of Bermuda KTB Selection70/100Smart performer who has already won at this track and at today's trip.
- 2Royal Fixation69/100Smart performer who has already won over course and distance on good to firm ground.
- 3Spicy Marg65/100Smart performer who has won over this trip but has been below her best on her last two starts.
- 4America Queen64/100Smart performer who has finished second in both starts at this track including a good effort over 7f here last time.
- 5Catching The Moon64/100Useful performer who looked promising when winning twice as a juvenile before a lacklustre return over 7f.
- 6Fitzella62/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip but has been below form in three runs this season.
- 7First Instinct60/100Smart performer who has won three times over today's 6f trip but was well below form when ninth on his most recent start over 5f.
- 8Soul Love59/100Useful performer who has won three of four starts including two at this trip.
- 9Celandine55/100Useful performer who has won over this trip in the past and has solid placed form on good to firm.
- 10Kinswoman52/100Kinswoman is a useful performer who has run well at this track before when finishing second.
- 11Hold A Dream51/100Useful performer who has run just once at York when finishing ninth.
- 12Figjam46/100Figjam is a useful performer who has shown that level on several occasions including when runner-up on debut.
- 13Fluorescence45/100Fluorescence is a useful performer who has shown smart form on his day but arrives with a patchy recent record and was well held when last seen over 5f.
The contenders
Flora Of Bermuda KTB Fit 70/100
Flora Of Bermuda is a smart performer who has already won at this track and at today's trip. She showed sharp form when taking a Listed race on her latest start but her record on good to firm is modest with just one win from seven runs. High-class connections at York add to her appeal. The five-year-old is drawn in stall 1 which could prove ideal if the rail is quick, and she is ridden by James Doyle who has a 15% strike rate at the track. Andrew Balding's 13% strike rate at York from 488 runs is respectable and the pair hold a combined trainer-jockey record of 19/88 with a positive A/E of 1.20.
Royal Fixation KTB Fit 69/100
Royal Fixation is a smart performer who has already won over course and distance on good to firm ground. Recent form of 1213-7 shows solid ability though the latest run was below par and first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York though the horse's own 1-1 course record adds a positive. The three-year-old is drawn in stall 3 which should allow her to race prominently in a race where pace could be key. K. R. Burke's 9% strike rate at the track is offset by the yard's overall solid record with this filly, while Sam James has a 7% strike rate here.
Spicy Marg KTB Fit 65/100
Spicy Marg is a smart performer who has won over this trip but has been below her best on her last two starts. York does not look to suit her as she finished last of 17 here on her only previous run at the track. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the course though the yard's strike-rate is only 11%. The three-year-old is drawn next to the selection in stall 2 and her run-style should see her prominent early. Michael Bell's 11% strike rate at York from 333 runs is fair, and Hector Crouch has a strong 15% record at the track from 80 rides.
America Queen KTB Fit 64/100
America Queen is a smart performer who has finished second in both starts at this track including a good effort over 7f here last time. Dropping back to 6f is a plus as she has already won at the trip from three attempts. The yard fires at a solid 18% strike rate at York while the jockey is far less potent with a 6% record from a big sample. The three-year-old has shown she handles good to firm with a placed effort from three starts on the surface. Richard Hughes sends her to York off the back of that encouraging local second, with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle.
Catching The Moon KTB Fit 64/100
Catching The Moon is a useful performer who looked promising when winning twice as a juvenile before a lacklustre return over 7f. Drops back to a trip he has already won at and his sole run on good to firm produced a victory. The yard has a solid record at York though the jockey's strike rate here is modest. The three-year-old is drawn wide in stall 12 which may force him to race more keenly than ideal in a race with plenty of pace. Richard & Peter Fahey's 10% strike rate at the track from 30 runs is backed by an A/E of 1.61, though Oisin Orr has managed only 6% from 183 rides here.
The rest of the field
FitzellaKTB Fit 62/100
Fitzella is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip but has been below form in three runs this season. First visit to York and drawn wide in stall 13 adds unknowns while the trainer's modest 6% strike rate here is another negative. Jockey's strong 20% record at the track offers some hope and the horse has handled good to firm ground in the past.
First InstinctKTB Fit 60/100
First Instinct is a smart performer who has won three times over today's 6f trip but was well below form when ninth on his most recent start over 5f. He has only run once at York and finished fifth without threatening, though the yard's 18% strike rate from 760 runs here offers some encouragement. Good to firm ground has produced a win and two places from five starts.
Soul LoveKTB Fit 59/100
Soul Love is a useful performer who has won three of four starts including two at this trip. Drawn wide in stall 11 and the yard's modest 9 percent strike rate at York is a negative. Jockey has a solid 11 percent record here from limited rides. She remains unproven on good to firm.
CelandineKTB Fit 55/100
Celandine is a useful performer who has won over this trip in the past and has solid placed form on good to firm. York clearly suits with a win from three runs here while the trainer and jockey both have respectable records at the track. Recent efforts have been mixed though and she now steps back up from five furlongs.
KinswomanKTB Fit 52/100
Kinswoman is a useful performer who has run well at this track before when finishing second. She has solid form on good to firm ground with two wins from four starts and has placed three times from four runs at today's trip. The yard's strong record at York is a positive but the jockey is operating below the course average.
Hold A DreamKTB Fit 51/100
Hold A Dream is a useful performer who has run just once at York when finishing ninth. Recent form has been patchy with two poor efforts this season after a solid placed run at the end of last year. Stays this trip and acts on good to firm but the trainer's modest record at the track tempers expectations.
FigjamKTB Fit 46/100
Figjam is a useful performer who has shown that level on several occasions including when runner-up on debut. He drops back to 6f today having won at the trip earlier in his career though his only run on good to firm ground brought no joy. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 24 runs at York while Kevin Stott is 7% from 254 rides here.
FluorescenceKTB Fit 45/100
Fluorescence is a useful performer who has shown smart form on his day but arrives with a patchy recent record and was well held when last seen over 5f. He has won twice from four starts at this trip which offers hope as he steps back up in distance. The yard's modest 8 percent strike rate at York is a negative while the horse himself was well beaten on his only previous run here.
KTB verdict
Flora Of Bermuda is the KTB Selection. She brings smart form, a prior York success and a Listed win on her most recent start, while the high-class team of Andrew Balding and James Doyle add plenty of appeal in a race where her prominent run-style from stall 1 looks advantageous. Royal Fixation is the obvious danger having already won over course and distance on good to firm, with first-time headgear now fitted to sharpen her up. America Queen and Catching The Moon are next in the KTB Fit order and both have shown enough at the track or trip to suggest they can feature, while Spicy Marg's York record is a clear concern despite her ability.
KTB Selection Flora Of Bermuda
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent York course record among the principals?
Flora Of Bermuda has won here from three runs, while America Queen has finished second on both starts at the track.
How does the good to firm going affect the principals?
Royal Fixation is 2-4 on good to firm having won over C&D on it, Catching The Moon is 1-1, Flora Of Bermuda is 1-7, Spicy Marg is 1-6 and America Queen is placed once from three starts without winning.
What are the trainer strike rates at York for the top two in the KTB Fit Scores?
Andrew Balding has a 13% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.01 from 488 runs, while K. R. Burke has a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.91 from 646 runs.
Which runners are drawn widest and how might that affect their race?
Catching The Moon is in stall 12, Soul Love in stall 11 and Fitzella in stall 13; the pace shape suggests those drawn high may need to expend energy to secure a prominent position.
Which horse is having its first run in headgear?
Royal Fixation is fitted with first-time headgear.
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