2:47 Chester
This Class 4 selling stakes over 7f1y at Chester on good to soft ground brings together an inexperienced field of eleven two-year-olds, many of whom are making their first or second start. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 52 and 40, underlining how little separates the principals on known form and how much rests on untried stamina, trainer form at the track and pedigree clues. With several debutants and others stepping up markedly in trip, the race poses plenty of unknowns.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a contested lead with several prominent runners likely to go forward from low to middle draws. Navy Light, Turbo Shandy and Dream On Kent are all expected to take up forward positions, while Invicta Rose from stall 11 may need to be ridden positively to avoid a wide trip. The key question is whether the early pace will hold up or collapse over this stiff 7f, leaving scope for one of the more experienced types to close late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Navy Light KTB Selection52/100Navy Light showed promise when second on debut over 5f and backed that up with a solid fourth last time.
- 2Turbo Shandy50/100Turbo Shandy is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 3Invicta Rose49/100Invicta Rose showed fair pace on debut over 6f when finishing fourth.
- 4Bonjour Belle49/100Bonjour Belle is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on her pedigree and sales background.
- 5Dream On Kent48/100Dream On Kent was well held on debut over 6f here and steps up in trip as a fresh question today.
- 6Delete Delete47/100Lightly raced and with only one run to go on, this 2yo needs to improve sharply.
- 7Em's Dilemma47/100Em's Dilemma is a newcomer from a yard that has been quiet with its two-year-olds this season.
- 8Liveadream46/100Liveadream finished seventh on debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time which asks a fresh question.
- 9Katie's Cavalier42/100Katie's Cavalier has shown only modest form in two runs over much shorter trips and now steps up to 7f for the first time.
- 10Farndale42/100Farndale has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip and will need to improve markedly to figure.
- 11Poppy Foxy40/100Poppy Foxy ran only once as a two-year-old and finished sixth on debut over 6f.
The contenders
Navy Light KTB Fit 52/100
Navy Light showed promise when second on debut over 5f and backed that up with a solid fourth last time. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard have a 10% strike rate from 10 runs at Chester while Shane Gray has a 12% record from 95 rides here. With a KTB Fit of 52 he tops the ratings in a race where experience counts for plenty. His draw in stall 6 looks ideal for a prominent run-style. Unproven on good to soft but the form so far suggests he can handle the surface.
Turbo Shandy KTB Fit 50/100
Turbo Shandy is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 9% strike-rate at Chester from 44 runs while the jockey has a solid 15% strike-rate from 39 rides here. With low data confidence the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background which offer limited clues at this stage. By Kodiac, he has a 10% overall win rate attached to the sire from a huge sample. His KTB Fit of 50 places him right in the mix among the principals. Draw five should allow him to track the early pace.
Invicta Rose KTB Fit 49/100
Invicta Rose showed fair pace on debut over 6f when finishing fourth. Stepping up to 7f asks a fresh question of this lightly raced 2yo and the small sample means her ability remains hard to gauge with any confidence. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Chester while the jockey operates at a more modest 10%. She is stepping up in class and carries a KTB Fit of 49. Unproven on good to soft ground. From a wide draw in stall 11 she will need to be ridden with intent.
Bonjour Belle KTB Fit 49/100
Bonjour Belle is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on her pedigree and sales background. Brian Ellison has a solid 13% strike rate at Chester from a decent sample of runners while Ryan Sexton is less prolific here with an 8% record from 26 rides. She will need to be fairly smart to make an impact first time up in a competitive Class 4. By Without Parole, the sire carries a 10% overall win rate from 499 runners. Her KTB Fit of 49 keeps her in the conversation among the leading contenders. Drawn in three she should be able to secure a nice early position.
Dream On Kent KTB Fit 48/100
Dream On Kent was well held on debut over 6f here and steps up in trip as a fresh question today. The yard's 8% strike rate from 818 runs at Chester offers little encouragement while the small sample on this ground means suitability remains unknown. Jockey P J McDonald has a solid 14% strike rate from 133 rides at the track. Dropping in class from that initial effort he carries a KTB Fit of 48. He has already shown he can handle the Chester track even if the run was modest. His prominent run-style should see him involved early from stall four.
The rest of the field
Delete DeleteKTB Fit 47/100
Delete Delete is lightly raced and with only one run to go on, this 2yo needs to improve sharply. He was well held when tenth on debut over 6f here on this track, showing little to build on. The step up to 7f is an unknown and both trainer and jockey have modest records at Chester. KTB Fit 47.
Em's DilemmaKTB Fit 47/100
Em's Dilemma is a newcomer from a yard that has been quiet with its two-year-olds this season. The David Evans stable posts an 8 percent strike-rate at Chester from a huge sample of runners while George Wood has a solid 12 percent record at the track from 57 rides. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the bulk of the argument here given the low data confidence on a debutant. KTB Fit 47.
LiveadreamKTB Fit 46/100
Liveadream finished seventh on debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time which asks a fresh question. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Chester from eight runs while the jockey's 5% record from 66 rides here is more modest. With only one run in the book and low data confidence this remains very much unknown territory. KTB Fit 46.
Katie's CavalierKTB Fit 42/100
Katie's Cavalier has shown only modest form in two runs over much shorter trips and now steps up to 7f for the first time. The yard records an 8% strike rate from 173 runs at Chester while Rowan Scott is operating at 4% from 49 rides here. With so little to go on this remains very much an unknown at this level and trip. Dropping in class with a KTB Fit of 42.
FarndaleKTB Fit 42/100
Farndale has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip and will need to improve markedly to figure. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Chester from a big sample while Fentiman is operating at just 4% here. With so few runs on the board the colt remains hard to weigh up. KTB Fit 42.
Poppy FoxyKTB Fit 40/100
Poppy Foxy ran only once as a two-year-old and finished sixth on debut over 6f. The small sample means there is little to go on and the step up to 7f today asks a fresh question. Trainer Charlie Clover has had too few runners at Chester to judge while Jack Doughty is still seeking his first winner from 15 rides here. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 40.
KTB verdict
Navy Light is the KTB Selection. He has already shown more than most of these on the track, finishing second on debut and then a solid fourth last time, and his prominent style from a good draw should suit the likely pace. The step up to 7f is the main unknown but the yard and jockey both have respectable records at Chester and the KTB Fit of 52 tops the field. Main dangers are the debutant Turbo Shandy, who could improve past several of these on pedigree, and Invicta Rose who showed fair pace on debut and comes from a yard in good form at the track.
KTB Selection Navy Light
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 13 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Navy Light | 5/2 | William Hill |
| Turbo Shandy | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Invicta Rose | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Bonjour Belle | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Dream On Kent | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Delete Delete | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Em's Dilemma | 25/1 | William Hill |
| Liveadream | 16/1 | Coral |
| Katie's Cavalier | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Farndale | 15/2 | 7Bet |
| Poppy Foxy | 7/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 2:47 Chester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating and what is it?
Navy Light has the highest KTB Fit rating of 52.
How many runners have previous course form at Chester?
Two runners have previous course form: Dream On Kent (8th) and Delete Delete (10th).
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Chester among the principals?
Ollie Sangster has the strongest strike rate at Chester among the principals with 20% from 15 runs.
Which horses are stepping up or down in class for this race?
Invicta Rose and Poppy Foxy are stepping up in class while Dream On Kent and Katie's Cavalier are dropping in class.
What is the expected run-style of the KTB Selection Navy Light?
Navy Light is expected to take up a forward position given his prominent run-style.
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