2:48 Yarmouth
This Class 4 maiden fillies' stakes over 7f at Yarmouth on good to soft ground brings together an 11-runner field mixing debutants from powerful yards with a handful of lightly raced fillies who have already shown some ability. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Sugar Sugar heading the list on 58 despite being a first-time-out runner, while Quadrillion, Shushu, Yimmna and Starlight Lass sit close behind on 57, 57, 52 and 52 respectively. The trainer and jockey reads at the track are broadly positive for several of the major players, though many remain unproven on good to soft ground and several of the newcomers carry significant pedigree appeal.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the pace shape is expected to be muddling and tactical, which should play to those capable of racing close to the pace. Quadrillion is the one most likely to be prominent and handy from her draw in stall five, while Victorian Rose also tends to race handily. Several others, including Shushu, Too Too Divine, La Mariposa and Sterling Fortune, are typically held up and will be looking to come from off the pace in what could become a race decided by timing and positioning in the final two furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sugar Sugar KTB Selection58/100Sugar Sugar is a half-sister to several winners including The Night Porter and Wonderful World, with a dam who won over 7f and a family link to Irish 1,000 Guin…
- 2Quadrillion57/100Quadrillion showed fair form as a juvenile with placed efforts at this trip in both starts.
- 3Shushu57/100Shushu showed fair form when second of five on debut at Haydock three weeks ago over this trip on soft ground.
- 4Yimmna52/100Yimmna is a 650,000 euro yearling by Siyouni and a half-sister to useful French performer Audubon Park out of a dam with Group 1 winners in the family.
- 5Starlight Lass52/100Starlight Lass is a Dubawi filly out of a 1m 2yo winner who is herself a half-sister to St Leger winner Logician.
- 6Too Too Divine50/100Fair performer who showed little promise on debut then finished fifth over C&D six weeks ago.
- 7Kino Plasmat49/100Kino Plasmat is a 250,000gns Wootton Bassett half-brother to high-class performers like Waikuku and Waipiro plus several other winners, with the dam a 7f winner…
- 8Esdaile47/100Esdaile is a newcomer by Oasis Dream out of an unraced sister to Group winners Helleborine and African Rose.
- 9La Mariposa45/100La Mariposa showed little on her debut when tailed off at 40-1 over this trip at Newmarket eight weeks ago.
- 10Sterling Fortune43/100Modest performer who showed little on her Kempton debut five weeks ago yet was not the slowest finisher in the race.
- 11Victorian Rose40/100Victorian Rose showed very little on her debut at Kempton three weeks ago, finishing eighth of nine with an RPR of just 23.
The contenders
Sugar Sugar KTB Fit 58/100
Sugar Sugar is a half-sister to several winners including The Night Porter and Wonderful World, with a dam who won over 7f and a family link to Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Samitar. She makes her debut in first-time headgear with a 5 lb claiming apprentice, which may help on what looks a stiff task. The trainer has a solid 18% strike rate at Yarmouth from 17 runs and the jockey has recorded a 13% strike rate at the track from 15 rides. By Dream Ahead, she has a 9% overall win rate on these terms and no course win on record. The KTB Fit rating of 58 tops the field and she is the KTB Selection.
Quadrillion KTB Fit 57/100
Quadrillion showed fair form as a juvenile with placed efforts at this trip in both starts. The runner has a strong pedigree but was turned over at odds-on on her second outing behind a subsequent Group winner who now rates 112. She has an RPR of 89 and a Topspeed of 64 from those two runs. Trainer Harry Charlton has a 13% strike rate from 24 runs at Yarmouth while Lewis Edmunds has an 11% strike rate from 105 rides at the track. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, she remains unproven on good to soft ground and has no course form on record. The KTB Fit rating stands at 57.
Shushu KTB Fit 57/100
Shushu showed fair form when second of five on debut at Haydock three weeks ago over this trip on soft ground. The small sample means her ability is hard to pin down though the RPR of 83 and Topspeed of 59 suggest she is at least useful at this level. Trainer Roger Varian has a 21% strike rate from 284 runs at Yarmouth while Jack Mitchell has a 16% strike rate from 416 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she remains unproven on good to soft and has no course form on record. The KTB Fit rating is 57.
Yimmna KTB Fit 52/100
Yimmna is a 650,000 euro yearling by Siyouni and a half-sister to useful French performer Audubon Park out of a dam with Group 1 winners in the family. Connections are strong with William Haggas who has a 21 percent strike rate at Yarmouth from 736 runs and has won this race with a newcomer before. Tom Marquand takes the ride on this debutant whose overall ability remains unknown. By Siyouni, the overall win rate on these terms stands at 13% and there is no course win on record. The KTB Fit rating is 52.
Starlight Lass KTB Fit 52/100
Starlight Lass is a Dubawi filly out of a 1m 2yo winner who is herself a half-sister to St Leger winner Logician. She is the first foal from that mare and comes from a yard that won this race last year with an experienced filly. The Gosden team have a 25% strike rate at Yarmouth from 155 runs though with low data confidence this debut effort is best judged on the betting. By Dubawi, the overall win rate on these terms stands at 17% and there is no course win on record. The KTB Fit rating is 52.
The rest of the field
Too Too DivineKTB Fit 50/100
Too Too Divine is a fair performer who showed little promise on debut then finished fifth over C&D six weeks ago. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Yarmouth from a big sample. Trip looks about right but she remains lightly raced with only two starts and the draw in stall 10 is far from ideal. The KTB Fit rating is 50.
Kino PlasmatKTB Fit 49/100
Kino Plasmat is a 250,000gns Wootton Bassett half-brother to high-class performers like Waikuku and Waipiro plus several other winners, with the dam a 7f winner herself. Connections are in form and the trainer has a solid 19% strike-rate from 157 runs at Yarmouth. As a debutant with no RPR or Topspeed data the picture remains very incomplete on a good-to-soft surface. The KTB Fit rating is 49.
EsdaileKTB Fit 47/100
Esdaile is a newcomer by Oasis Dream out of an unraced sister to Group winners Helleborine and African Rose. She cost 15,000gns as a foal and is a half-sister to a modest middle-distance winner. James Tate has a 15% strike rate at Yarmouth from 130 runs while Marco Ghiani takes the ride on a horse that looks best watched on debut. The KTB Fit rating is 47.
La MariposaKTB Fit 45/100
La Mariposa showed little on her debut when tailed off at 40-1 over this trip at Newmarket eight weeks ago. The small sample means her ability remains largely unknown and she needs to improve markedly while dropping in class. Trainer records an 8% strike rate from 37 runs at Yarmouth. The KTB Fit rating is 45.
Sterling FortuneKTB Fit 43/100
Sterling Fortune is a modest performer who showed little on her Kempton debut five weeks ago yet was not the slowest finisher in the race. She is trying turf for the first time with the going sample too small to judge while stepping up in class. James Tate has a 15% strike rate here from 130 runs. The KTB Fit rating is 43.
Victorian RoseKTB Fit 40/100
Victorian Rose showed very little on her debut at Kempton three weeks ago, finishing eighth of nine with an RPR of just 23. That leaves her looking limited on the evidence available and she has a stiff task from stall nine while stepping up in class. The trainer holds a 15 percent strike rate at Yarmouth from 82 runs. The KTB Fit rating is 40.
KTB verdict
Sugar Sugar tops the KTB Fit ratings at 58 and is the selection in a race where several of the principals are hard to separate on what little public form exists. The half-sister to multiple winners makes her debut in first-time headgear for a trainer with a strong 18% strike rate at Yarmouth, and the booking of the claiming apprentice may prove beneficial. She has to be respected given the yard's record at the venue, though the race could easily fall to one of the more experienced fillies. Quadrillion brings the best public figures having shown fair juvenile form, while Shushu shaped with promise on debut and both Yimmna and Starlight Lass represent stables with excellent recent history in this contest.
KTB Selection Sugar Sugar
This is the narrative read of the 2:48 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating and is the selection?
Sugar Sugar has the highest KTB Fit rating of 58 and is the KTB Selection.
How many runners in the field are debutants?
Five runners are debutants: Sugar Sugar, Yimmna, Starlight Lass, Kino Plasmat and Esdaile.
Which horse is most likely to race prominently given the pace shape?
Quadrillion is most likely to race prominently as she usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Yarmouth in this race?
John & Thady Gosden have a 25% strike rate at Yarmouth from 155 runs.
Which horse has the highest RPR in the field?
Quadrillion has the highest RPR of 89.
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