2:57 Navan
The Newgrange Hotel Handicap at Navan brings together a competitive field of 16 for this 5f180y contest on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Reinforce heading the list on 57 despite a modest recent run of form, followed closely by Are You In Or Out, Poweracclaim, In The Gloaming and Irish Rumour all in the mid-50s. Several runners arrive with first-time headgear, while questions remain around unproven performers on this lively surface and at the trip.
How the race shapes up
With plenty of pace drawn across the field, including prominent runners from Reinforce, Irish Rumour and Gotta Catch'em All, the race is expected to be run at a strong gallop. The wide draws of Are You In Or Out, Poweracclaim, In The Gloaming and Coincidental Glory may force them to work harder in the early stages or race without cover. The key question is whether the prominent types can dictate matters or if the race will fall to a strong traveller from just off the pace on this straight track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Reinforce KTB Selection57/100
- 2Are You In Or Out55/100
- 3Poweracclaim55/100
- 4In The Gloaming54/100
- 5Irish Rumour53/100
- 6Thurso52/100
- 7Aurora Nova51/100
- 8Step Back In Time51/100
- 9Prime Sign51/100
- 10Phoenix Pairc49/100
- 11Coincidental Glory46/100
- 12Gotta Catch'em All43/100
- 13Elly Bay43/100
- 14Verified41/100
- 15The Cosy Corner38/100
- 16Dubai Opulence35/100
The contenders
Reinforce KTB Fit 57/100
Reinforce tops the KTB Fit ratings on 57 and is the clear selection. A six-year-old with a win to his name here from two starts at the course, he has shown ability on good to firm with one success from six starts and three places. Miss Katy Brown's record at Navan reads 5% strike rate with an A/E of 1.33 from 22 runs, while Ronan Whelan has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.76 from 351 rides; together they have combined for a 20% strike rate with a positive A/E of 1.90 and LSP of +£8.50 from 10 runs. Recent form of 6908-0 is modest but the selection has the figures and course knowledge to bounce back in a race where his prominent run-style should be an asset from draw 5.
Are You In Or Out KTB Fit 55/100
Are You In Or Out is rated 55 on KTB Fit and arrives with respectable recent form of 70-170. The five-year-old has an 18% strike rate for Conor David Maxwell at Navan with an A/E of 2.41 from 11 runs, though Nicola Burns is yet to score from 16 rides here with an A/E of 0. She has two runs on good to firm without placing and was 12th on her only previous start at the course. Drawn widest in 16, her run-style suggests she will need to overcome a potentially wide trip, but the trainer's record at the venue offers encouragement.
Poweracclaim KTB Fit 55/100
Poweracclaim shares a KTB Fit rating of 55 and brings placed form on his last two visits to Navan, finishing fourth and fifth from two starts here. The four-year-old is unproven on good to firm having had no previous runs on the surface, which adds an element of risk. J P Murtagh has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.94 from 246 runs, while Ben Coen posts a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.79 from 251 rides; the pair have combined at a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.87. His recent form reads 35-404 and from a wide draw in 15 he will need to settle into a suitable rhythm.
In The Gloaming KTB Fit 54/100
In The Gloaming is a three-year-old rated 54 on KTB Fit and tries first-time headgear in this race. His form reads 0-55 and he is unproven on good to firm having had no starts on the surface. A Oliver has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.04 from 328 runs, while Gary Carroll has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.77 from 438 rides. The combination has produced a 8% strike rate with an A/E of 0.98. With no course form on record and drawn in 14, he will need to show improved form to figure prominently.
Irish Rumour KTB Fit 53/100
Irish Rumour is rated 53 on KTB Fit and has a course win to his name from three starts here. The six-year-old tries first-time headgear and has recent form of 25-020 that includes placed efforts. Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch has a 10% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.99 from 21 runs, while Dylan Browne McMonagle posts a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.87 from 177 rides; together they have a modest 11% strike rate from nine runs. Unproven on good to firm, he has the ability to go well from a favourable draw in 4 if the headgear helps.
The rest of the field
ThursoKTB Fit 52/100
Thurso is rated 52 on KTB Fit with recent form of 558814 that includes a win. A four-year-old with two wins from three starts on good to firm, he has been placed on his only previous run at Navan. Gerard Edmund O'Leary has a 0% strike rate at the track from two runs, while Sam Coen has a 4% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.37.
Aurora NovaKTB Fit 51/100
Aurora Nova is rated 51 on KTB Fit with form of 9-0359. The seven-year-old has had two runs on good to firm without placing and has been unplaced on all four previous starts at Navan. Andrew McNamara has a 4% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.72, while Wesley Joyce has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.96.
Step Back In TimeKTB Fit 51/100
Step Back In Time is rated 51 on KTB Fit with form of 7-0090 and tries first-time headgear. An eight-year-old with four wins from 14 starts at Navan, he has had two runs on good to firm without placing. Chris Timmons has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.92 from 60 runs.
Prime SignKTB Fit 51/100
Prime Sign is rated 51 on KTB Fit with recent form of 605-00. The five-year-old is unproven on good to firm having had no starts on the surface and has no course form on record. A Oliver has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.04 from 328 runs.
Phoenix PaircKTB Fit 49/100
Phoenix Pairc is rated 49 on KTB Fit with form of 3190-0 and tries first-time headgear. The four-year-old is unproven on good to firm and was fourth on his only previous start at Navan. W McCreery has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.82 from 333 runs, while W J Lee has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.9.
Coincidental GloryKTB Fit 46/100
Coincidental Glory is rated 46 on KTB Fit with form of 050463. The three-year-old is unproven on good to firm and has no course form on record. Adrian McGuinness has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.68 from 305 runs, while Declan McDonogh has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.77.
Gotta Catch'em AllKTB Fit 43/100
Gotta Catch'em All is rated 43 on KTB Fit with form of 4-7696 and tries first-time headgear. The six-year-old has been placed on two of three starts at Navan and had one run on good to firm without placing. H Rogers has a 4% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.52 from 515 runs.
Elly BayKTB Fit 43/100
Elly Bay is rated 43 on KTB Fit with form of 9-6529. The three-year-old is unproven on good to firm and was fourth on her only previous start at Navan. Jack W Davison has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.56 from 70 runs.
VerifiedKTB Fit 41/100
Verified is rated 41 on KTB Fit with recent form of 9-0002 that includes a placed effort. The five-year-old is unproven on good to firm and has been placed once from six starts at Navan. Gerard Keane has a 3% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.44 from 155 runs.
The Cosy CornerKTB Fit 38/100
The Cosy Corner is rated 38 on KTB Fit with form of 009- as a two-year-old. Unproven on good to firm, he was ninth on his only previous start at Navan. Gavin Cromwell has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.84 from 469 runs, while Chris Hayes has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.71.
Dubai OpulenceKTB Fit 35/100
Dubai Opulence is rated 35 on KTB Fit with form of 89-00. The three-year-old is unproven on good to firm and was ninth on her only previous start at Navan. Miss Natalia Lupini has a 0% strike rate at the venue from 40 runs.
KTB verdict
Reinforce is the KTB Selection at the head of a tight Fit rating cluster and brings course-winning form to the table along with proven ability on good to firm. His prominent run-style from a good draw should allow him to take a hand in a race likely to be strongly run, and the trainer-jockey combination has delivered at a profit in recent runs together. The main dangers are Irish Rumour, who has a course win and first-time headgear, and Poweracclaim, who has shown placed form at Navan though he is unproven on the surface. Are You In Or Out and In The Gloaming are next in the ratings and cannot be ruled out if the pace falls their way.
KTB Selection Reinforce
This is the narrative read of the 2:57 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Navan?
Step Back In Time has four wins from 14 starts at Navan. Reinforce and Irish Rumour have each won once here.
How many runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Eight runners have had no previous runs on good to firm: Poweracclaim, In The Gloaming, Irish Rumour, Prime Sign, Phoenix Pairc, Coincidental Glory, Elly Bay, Verified, The Cosy Corner and Dubai Opulence.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Navan in this field?
Conor David Maxwell has an 18% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 2.41 from 11 runs.
Who are the first-time headgear runners?
In The Gloaming, Irish Rumour, Step Back In Time, Phoenix Pairc and Gotta Catch'em All are all wearing headgear for the first time.
What is the draw of the KTB Selection?
Reinforce is drawn in stall 5.
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