3:00 Goodwood
The 3:00 at Goodwood is the Rolls-Royce Oak Tree Stakes, a Group 3 contest over 7f on good ground that features a competitive field of 14. The KTB Fit Scores identify a tight bunch at the top with Zanthos heading the numbers on 65, followed closely by Flora Of Bermuda on 61 and Sayidah Dariyan on 58, while several others sit in the low-to-mid 50s. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race where proven smart performers meet some with recent question marks, and the first-time headgear on a couple of the principals adds an extra layer of interest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with only medium confidence, as there is thin evidence for a clear front-runner. Flora Of Bermuda and Radiant Beauty both tend to race prominently or make the running on limited evidence, which could see them dispute the early lead from their respective draws of four and one. Most of the field is likely to settle in mid-division or further back, with Planet Seeker among those held up for a late run. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fragment in the absence of a strongly committed pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Zanthos KTB Selection65/100Smart performer who has won twice over this trip already.
- 2Flora Of Bermuda61/100Smart performer who has won four times including on her only previous visit to this track.
- 3Sayidah Dariyan58/100Smart performer who has mixed form this year but showed useful ability when third in listed company last time.
- 4Havana Pusey55/100Useful performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
- 5Radiant Beauty54/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick with wins at this trip and on this ground.
- 6Queen's Reign53/100Useful performer who has won both starts at this trip and this track.
- 7Dash Of Azure52/100Useful performer who has shown his best form this year with two placed efforts in strong company.
- 8Royal Velvet51/100Royal Velvet is a useful performer who has won six of his 12 starts at this trip and acts well on good ground with two wins from eight attempts.
- 9Brazilian Rose50/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip but arrives in modest form having failed to place on her last three starts.
- 10Awaken50/100Useful performer who won on good ground over 7f as a two-year-old but has failed to fire in two starts this season.
- 11Orion's Belt49/100Useful performer who showed smart form when winning a 7f Listed race at Newmarket last summer.
- 12Planet Seeker49/100Useful performer who has won both starts at this trip including a success here on good ground.
- 13Isle Of Fernandez43/100Useful performer who has run well at this track, finishing second on his only visit to Goodwood.
- 14Golden Palace43/100Useful performer who has shown a mixed bag this season with a third at Newmarket the pick of his three runs.
The contenders
Zanthos KTB Fit 65/100
Zanthos is a smart performer who has already won twice over this trip. His recent form of 121-90 shows he has gone off the boil on his last two starts, and he now tries headgear for the first time in an attempt to bounce back. The three-year-old is drawn in stall seven and has been placed once from one run on good ground without winning on it. The Crisford yard holds a 17% strike rate at Goodwood from 81 runs with an A/E of 0.97, while Oisin Murphy is 16% from 519 rides here with an A/E of 0.89. Their combined record when teaming up reads 14/41 (34%) with an A/E of 1.28 and +£15.47 LSP.
Flora Of Bermuda KTB Fit 61/100
Flora Of Bermuda is a smart performer who has won four times, including on her only previous visit to this track where her course record stands at one from one. She steps up to 7f for the first time today after a recent 6f success, a move that asks a fresh question at this trip where she has been beaten once before. The five-year-old has been placed once from four runs on good ground without winning on it and her recent form reads 39-101. Andrew Balding has an 11% strike rate at Goodwood from 907 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while James Doyle is 12% from 502 rides here with an A/E of 0.76. Their combined record stands at 20/91 (22%) with an A/E of 1.23 and +£44.57 LSP. She tends to make the running or race prominently.
Sayidah Dariyan KTB Fit 58/100
Sayidah Dariyan is a smart performer who has shown mixed form this year but displayed useful ability when third in listed company last time out. She steps up to 7f for the first time today, which poses a fresh question, and this is also her first run at Goodwood. The four-year-old has a record of one win from two runs on good ground with another placed effort and her recent form is 170-39. Richard Hughes has an 8% strike rate at Goodwood from 200 runs with an A/E of 0.6, while Ryan Moore is 16% from 1018 rides here with an A/E of 0.91. Their combined record reads 15/92 (16%) with an A/E of 0.93 and -£19.87 LSP.
Havana Pusey KTB Fit 55/100
Havana Pusey is a useful performer who has won both at this track and at today's trip. His recent form of -01377 has been patchy, but he is stepping up in class and now tries first-time headgear in the hope of a revival. The six-year-old has two wins from ten runs on good ground with another four placed efforts and holds a course record of one from three. John Gallagher has a 13% strike rate at Goodwood from 110 runs with an A/E of 1.38, while Clifford Lee is 8% from 50 rides here with an A/E of 0.76.
Radiant Beauty KTB Fit 54/100
Radiant Beauty is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick with wins at this trip and on this ground, where her record reads three from five with another four placed. She drops back from a mile to 7f, a move that looks sensible given her record at the shorter distance, and this will be her first visit to Goodwood. The five-year-old's recent form is 3-6101 and she tends to make the running or race on the pace. James Owen has a 14% strike rate at Goodwood from 36 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while Marco Ghiani is 10% from 42 rides here with an A/E of 0.69. Their combined record stands at 2/5 (40%).
The rest of the field
Queen's ReignKTB Fit 53/100
Queen's Reign is a useful performer who has won both starts at this trip and this track, where her course record is one from one. She has shown consistent placed form on good ground with two wins from six runs and two further placed efforts, but returns from a stiff draw in first-time headgear.
Dash Of AzureKTB Fit 52/100
Dash Of Azure is a useful performer who has shown his best form this year with two placed efforts in strong company and has already won on good ground at this trip. His sole run at Goodwood resulted in a seventh, and the wide draw in a big field is a clear negative despite the trainer's solid 12% strike rate at the track.
Royal VelvetKTB Fit 51/100
Royal Velvet is a useful performer who has won six of his 12 starts at this trip and acts well on good ground with two wins from eight attempts. He has run just once at Goodwood, finishing fifth, and the yard's modest 8% strike rate here from 287 runs adds a note of caution.
Brazilian RoseKTB Fit 50/100
Brazilian Rose is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip but arrives in modest form having failed to place on her last three starts. She drops back from a mile in first-time headgear, makes her first run at Goodwood, and has shown only modest form on good ground so far.
AwakenKTB Fit 50/100
Awaken is a useful performer who won on good ground over 7f as a two-year-old but has failed to fire in two starts this season. Dropping back from a mile looks logical, he is stepping up in class, and the trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Goodwood from 58 runs.
Orion's BeltKTB Fit 49/100
Orion's Belt is a useful performer who showed smart form when winning a 7f Listed race at Newmarket last summer but has been below that level on his last three starts and was only sixth when tried here over 6f as a juvenile. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Goodwood from 779 runs.
Planet SeekerKTB Fit 49/100
Planet Seeker is a useful performer who has won both starts at this trip including a success here on good ground, where his course record is a perfect one from one. He is stepping up in class, usually held up for a late effort, and the trainer has a 12% strike rate at Goodwood from a large sample.
Isle Of FernandezKTB Fit 43/100
Isle Of Fernandez is a useful performer who has run well at this track, finishing second on his only visit to Goodwood. He drops back to 7f having looked stretched by a mile last time, though his earlier placed efforts at the trip suggest the distance should suit, despite the trainer's modest 4% strike rate here.
Golden PalaceKTB Fit 43/100
Golden Palace is a useful performer who has shown a mixed bag this season with a third at Newmarket the pick of his three runs. He has won on good ground but is 0-3 at this trip, now makes his first visit to Goodwood from a wide draw, and the trainer's local record is too small to judge from only two runners.
KTB verdict
Zanthos is the KTB Selection. He is a smart performer with two wins already over this trip, and the first-time headgear is a logical attempt to arrest his recent decline while the Crisford yard and Oisin Murphy both operate at a solid level at Goodwood. The selection has the best KTB Fit Score in the field and can capitalise if the tentative pace allows him to find a rhythm. His main dangers are Flora Of Bermuda, who has won on her only previous visit to the track and arrives off the back of a 6f success, and Sayidah Dariyan, who showed useful form when third in listed company last time and benefits from the booking of Ryan Moore.
KTB Selection Zanthos
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Goodwood. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Goodwood racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is trying headgear for the first time and what is its recent form?
Zanthos is trying first-time headgear and his recent form figures are 121-90.
Which runners tend to make the running or race prominently?
Flora Of Bermuda and Radiant Beauty both tend to make the running or race on the pace according to the supplied run-style data.
Which horse has a perfect course record at Goodwood and what is that record?
Planet Seeker has won here with a course record of 1 from 1.
What is the KTB Fit Score of the selection and how does it compare to the second highest?
Zanthos has a KTB Fit Score of 65/100, which is four points ahead of Flora Of Bermuda on 61/100.
Which horse is dropping back from a mile to 7f and has three wins from five runs on good ground?
Radiant Beauty is dropping back from a mile to 7f and has three wins from five runs on good ground.
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