3:00 York
The Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup Stakes is a competitive Listed event over 1m5f188y at York on good ground, featuring a compact field of six runners where stamina and course form will be at a premium. KTB’s Fit ratings identify Al Qareem as the clear top pick on 70, with Gregory, Tabletalk and Mount Atlas closely grouped on 61-62, while the remaining pair trail on 52-59. The race brings together several established handicappers stepping up in class, with recent form suggesting a tight contest hinging on who handles the York straight and the step up in trip best.
How the race shapes up
With a small field and no obvious front-runner declared, the pace shape is expected to be on the steady side, likely seeing one or two of the more prominent runners take a lead at a sensible gallop. Al Qareem and Roaring Legend are the most forward-going types from their recent efforts, while Gregory, Tabletalk and Mount Atlas have all shown flexibility to race prominently or in mid-division. Epic Poet tends to come from further back. The key question is whether the race develops into a test of stamina up the straight or if the leaders are allowed an easy time, in which case the prominent runners will hold the advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Al Qareem KTB Selection70/100
- 2Gregory62/100
- 3Tabletalk61/100
- 4Mount Atlas61/100
- 5Epic Poet59/100
- 6Roaring Legend52/100
The contenders
Al Qareem KTB Fit 70/100
Al Qareem arrives with the strongest KTB Fit rating of 70 and is taken to land this Listed prize. A 7-year-old with a solid recent record of 313-15, he has already shown his liking for York by winning three of his six starts here, including a success on good ground. The combination of K R Burke’s 9% strike rate at the track and Clifford Lee’s 12% record adds further confidence, even if the trainer-jockey partnership shows a modest A/E of 0.93 overall. Effective on good ground with three wins from ten starts, he looks ideally placed from draw 5 to utilise his prominent run-style. Having won on his most recent outing, he enters in excellent order and is the one to beat.
Gregory KTB Fit 62/100
Gregory is rated the second-best on KTB Fit at 62 and brings high-class connections in the shape of John & Thady Gosden and James Doyle. His form figures of 335/7- show consistent placed efforts, though he is yet to win at York from three attempts, all of which resulted in thirds. The trainer’s 21% strike rate at the track is a positive, as is Doyle’s 14% record, though their combined A/E stands at 0.86. With three wins from six starts on good ground, he handles the conditions well and can race prominently or midfield. A return to the scene of those placed efforts could see him improve on last season’s finishing position.
Tabletalk KTB Fit 61/100
Tabletalk is closely matched on KTB Fit with a mark of 61 and boasts solid York credentials, having won here from two starts. His recent form of 632-25 demonstrates consistent placed efforts, and he has been competitive on all three starts on good ground without winning. Tom Clover’s modest 6% strike rate at York is offset by Rossa Ryan’s stronger 13% record at the venue. Drawn in stall 3, he is likely to be prominent or handy early. The combination of course winning form and placed efforts suggests he will be in the mix once again.
Mount Atlas KTB Fit 61/100
Mount Atlas completes the principals with a KTB Fit of 61 and is trained by Andrew Balding, who has a strong 13% strike rate at York. Recent form of 924-22 shows two solid placed efforts, though he was only ninth on his sole previous run at this track. William Buick’s 15% strike rate at York adds appeal to the booking. He has one win from five starts on good ground and can race prominently. While his York record is modest, the booking of Buick and the yard’s local record mean he cannot be dismissed from a wide draw in stall 6.
The rest of the field
Epic PoetKTB Fit 59/100
Epic Poet has a KTB Fit of 59 and brings the highest-profile jockey booking in Ryan Moore, though the trainer-jockey combination shows an A/E of 0.73. A 7-year-old with form of -25534, he has been placed at York on two of five starts without winning and holds a modest 7% trainer strike rate at the track. Effective on good ground with four placed efforts from nine starts, he is likely to be ridden from off the pace.
Roaring LegendKTB Fit 52/100
Roaring Legend is the outsider on KTB Fit at 52 and has form figures of 03-226, showing consistent placed efforts of late. Olly Murphy has no previous York record, while Jason Hart’s 9% strike rate at the track is modest. He has two wins from six starts on good ground but was only tenth on his sole previous run at York. Likely to be forward-going from draw 4.
KTB verdict
Al Qareem stands out as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit rating and proven course form at York, where he has won three times from six starts. His recent winning effort and effective prominent run-style on good ground make him the most straightforward proposition in a race that may not be run at a strong pace. Gregory, Tabletalk and Mount Atlas all have claims on their placed form and trainer records at the track, while Epic Poet could improve with the booking of Ryan Moore. Roaring Legend looks up against it on the ratings but could go forward early.
KTB Selection Al Qareem
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 13 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Al Qareem | 9/4 | 7Bet |
| Gregory | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Tabletalk | 8/1 | BetTom |
| Mount Atlas | 9/4 | 7Bet |
| Epic Poet | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Roaring Legend | 40/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at York in this field?
Al Qareem, who has won three of his six starts at the track.
How does the expected pace shape influence the principals?
A steady pace is likely, favouring prominent runners such as Al Qareem, Gregory and Tabletalk who can race handy.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at York among those represented?
John & Thady Gosden with a 21% strike rate at the track.
Has any horse in the field won over this distance at York before?
Al Qareem has won here previously, though the exact distance of those wins is not specified.
What is the going record of the KTB Selection?
Al Qareem has three wins from ten starts on good ground.
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