3:05 Bath
This Class 5 restricted novice fillies' event over 5f 160y at Bath on good to soft ground brings together an 11-strong field of largely unexposed or lightly raced three-year-olds, with one juvenile also taking her chance. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Honky Tonk Girl on 55, just ahead of Secret Harvest on 54 and Navona Grey on 51, suggesting a competitive heat where small margins could decide the outcome. Several runners are dropping in class while most remain unproven on good to soft ground, adding an element of guesswork to their expected performances.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runners declared and the majority of the field showing no strong bias towards early pace, the race is expected to unfold at a steady gallop rather than a sprint for the line. The pace shape points to a race that could be won from mid-division or with a well-timed challenge from off the pace, particularly given the draw biases at Bath over this trip. The key question is whether any horse can seize an uncontested position in the first half of the field and then quicken effectively on ground that may prove testing for those without experience of it.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Honky Tonk Girl KTB Selection55/100
- 2Secret Harvest54/100
- 3Navona Grey51/100
- 4Clementines Star49/100
- 5Velvet Goldmine49/100
- 6Lavender Bloom49/100
- 7Doodling47/100
- 8Dark Angel Light44/100
- 9I Can Dream44/100
- 10Miss Gold43/100
- 11Whazzimo42/100
The contenders
Honky Tonk Girl KTB Fit 55/100
Honky Tonk Girl tops the KTB Fit ratings on 55 and is the clear selection in a race where she holds solid claims on her pedigree and the figures attached to her. By Dream Ahead, she has a 9% overall win rate to call upon from that sire's progeny, though she has no course win on record and no Bath-specific history to lean on. Oliver Cole's overall record stands at 13% from 15 runs with no Bath record, while Tyler Heard brings a 12% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 1.02 from 111 rides. She is drawn in stall 6, which should allow her the chance to adopt a handy position early, and the market reads her at 14/1 in a field of 11. The combination of her top Fit score and the assistance of a jockey with a solid course record makes her the one to beat on these terms.
Secret Harvest KTB Fit 54/100
Secret Harvest arrives with a KTB Fit of 54 and brings the benefit of a recent second-place finish, giving her the edge in terms of recent match practice over some of her rivals. The Conrad Allen and Darragh Keenan combination has produced a 12/92 (13%) record with an A/E of 1.66 and a healthy +£63.62 LSP, though Allen's own Bath record is a more modest 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.92 from 34 runs. Keenan himself holds a 9% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.03 from 97 rides. She is unproven on good to soft having had no runs on the surface, which introduces a question mark, and she has no course form on record. Drawn in stall 8, she should be capable of racing prominently if the pace allows, and at 7/2 in a field of 11 she is clearly respected in the market.
Navona Grey KTB Fit 51/100
Navona Grey is rated 51 on KTB Fit and is dropping in class, which could help her show improved form having finished fifth on her most recent start. The Gay Kelleway and Josephine Gordon partnership shows a 6/58 (10%) record with an A/E of 0.96 and a -£27.75 LSP. Kelleway has a 13% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.92 from 96 runs, while Gordon posts a 13% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.11 from 149 rides. Like several others she is unproven on good to soft with no runs on the surface, and she has no course form on record. From draw 10 she may have to work to get across and find a good early position, yet at 9/1 in a field of 11 she remains a live contender in a race where the principals are closely matched.
Clementines Star KTB Fit 49/100
Clementines Star carries a KTB Fit of 49 and is dropping in class after two placed efforts last season that read 33-. The Daniel & Claire Kubler yard teams up with William Carver on a 1/6 (17%) record, while the trainer has a strong 19% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.17 from 43 runs. Carver's own Bath figures show a 10% strike rate and an A/E of 0.69 from 48 rides. She is unproven on good to soft having had no previous runs on the surface and holds no course form. Drawn widest in stall 11, she will need to overcome that disadvantage if the race develops into a test of speed from the front, but her placed form and the trainer's local record keep her firmly in the mix at 13/2 in a field of 11.
Velvet Goldmine KTB Fit 49/100
Velvet Goldmine is another on 49 KTB Fit and arrives with the strongest recent piece of form in the shape of an 8-3 profile, the latest effort a placed showing that suggests she is progressing. Ed Walker and George Downing combine with a 17/182 (9%) record and an A/E of 0.71 with a -£72.59 LSP; Walker's Bath record stands at 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.77 from 73 runs, while Downing has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from 112 rides. She is unproven on good to soft and has no course form on record. Drawn in stall 5 she should be able to race handily enough, and at 2/1 in a field of 11 she is clearly the market's idea of the biggest danger to the selection.
The rest of the field
Lavender BloomKTB Fit 49/100
Lavender Bloom has a KTB Fit of 49 but her recent form of 66 suggests she has work to do to match the principals. The Steph Hollinshead and Dougie Costello partnership shows a 17/170 (10%) record with an A/E of 1.05 and a -£66.10 LSP; Hollinshead has an 11% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.07 from 91 runs, though Costello is on 7% with an A/E of 0.62 from 120 rides at the venue. She is unproven on good to soft and has no course form.
DoodlingKTB Fit 47/100
Doodling is rated 47 on KTB Fit with a rather exposed profile of 4-2687 that indicates she may struggle to land a blow at this level. The Eve Johnson Houghton and Callum Hutchinson combination has a 5/42 (12%) record with an A/E of 0.97 and a -£11.47 LSP; the yard's Bath record is 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.76 from 351 runs, while Hutchinson posts 8% with an A/E of 0.96 from 130 rides at the track. She remains unproven on good to soft with no course form on record.
Dark Angel LightKTB Fit 44/100
Dark Angel Light holds a KTB Fit of 44 and is by Dark Angel, whose progeny have an 11% overall win rate from 22674 runners. The Jack Channon and George Bass partnership records 39/269 (14%) with an A/E of 1.01 and a -£61.73 LSP; Channon has a 14% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.82 from 44 runs, though Bass is on 8% with an A/E of 0.6 from 65 rides. She has no course win on record and is unproven on good to soft.
I Can DreamKTB Fit 44/100
I Can Dream is rated 44 on KTB Fit after a single run that read 9, and she is dropping in class. Henry Candy and Nicola Currie combine on a 5/98 (5%) record with an A/E of 0.55 and a -£15.67 LSP; Candy has a 12% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.83 from 278 runs, while Currie posts 10% with an A/E of 0.89 from 166 rides. She is unproven on good to soft and has no course form.
Miss GoldKTB Fit 43/100
Miss Gold is a juvenile with a KTB Fit of 43, a single run that read 8- and first-time headgear now applied. Eve Johnson Houghton has an 11% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.76 from 351 runs, while apprentice Shay Farmer has no record at the venue. She is unproven on good to soft and has no course form on record.
WhazzimoKTB Fit 42/100
Whazzimo brings a KTB Fit of 42 and recent form of 59 that leaves her with plenty to find. The James Ferguson and Jonny Peate partnership shows 6/61 (10%) with an A/E of 0.89 and a -£29.68 LSP; Ferguson's Bath record is 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.66 from 9 runs, while Peate has a 0% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0 from 14 rides. She is unproven on good to soft and has no course form.
KTB verdict
Honky Tonk Girl emerges as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit rating of 55 and the assistance of a jockey who knows his way around Bath. She brings a solid pedigree through Dream Ahead and should be suited by the chance to race handily from stall 6 in a race that may not be strongly run. The main dangers are headed by Secret Harvest, who has shown more on the track than most and teams up with a trainer-jockey combination that has historically performed above expectations, while Velvet Goldmine looks the obvious market threat on the back of her latest placed effort and the yard's respectable local record. Navona Grey and Clementines Star cannot be entirely dismissed either given their class drops and the respective trainers' Bath figures.
KTB Selection Honky Tonk Girl
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 13 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Honky Tonk Girl | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Secret Harvest | 4/1 | BresBet |
| Navona Grey | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Clementines Star | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Velvet Goldmine | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Lavender Bloom | 22/1 | Midnite |
| Doodling | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Dark Angel Light | 13/2 | 7Bet |
| I Can Dream | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| Miss Gold | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| Whazzimo | 20/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:05 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are dropping in class?
Navona Grey, Clementines Star, Velvet Goldmine and I Can Dream are all dropping in class.
How many runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Nine of the eleven runners have had no runs on good to soft and are therefore unproven on the ground.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Bath?
Daniel & Claire Kubler have a 19% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.17 from 43 runs.
Who are the only runners with recent placed form?
Secret Harvest (2), Clementines Star (33-) and Velvet Goldmine (8-3) are the only runners with recent placed form.
Which jockey has the best Bath strike rate among those declared?
Tyler Heard has a 12% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.02 from 111 rides.
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