3:07 Punchestown
The 3:07 at Punchestown is a 17-runner INHSC Ladies Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f12y on good to yielding ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Digby heading the list on 63, followed closely by That's About Right (60), Cut The Rope (59), Lakewood Rose (59) and Fenway Park (58), indicating a competitive field where current form, trip suitability and course records will be decisive. Most runners are rated smart on their best figures, with RPRs clustering between 111 and 118, yet many arrive with questions over recent performances or Punchestown history.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the pace shape is described as muddling and tactical, which should favour those capable of racing close to the pace. Several principals, including Digby, Cut The Rope, Adaliz and Mary's Pride, tend to race prominently or handily, while others such as That's About Right, Lakewood Rose and Act Of God are held up. The key question is which of the prominent runners can seize an advantageous position early and maintain it through the tactical phases without overdoing things on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Digby KTB Selection63/100RPR 117 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2That's About Right60/100RPR 118 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Cut The Rope59/100RPR 118 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Lakewood Rose59/100RPR 116 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Fenway Park58/100RPR 115 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Fortunate Lighting57/100RPR 117 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Adaliz57/100RPR 112 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Act Of God56/100RPR 116 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9Qaasid55/100RPR 113 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Mary's Pride55/100RPR 116 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 11Icare Desbois55/100RPR 118 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 12Lord Ffrench55/100RPR 114 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 13Costanuci53/100RPR 117 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 14Fairlander53/100RPR 117 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 15Hidalgo Des Mottes51/100RPR 117 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 16Cock And Bull50/100RPR 111 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 17Goin'38/100RPR 99 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Digby KTB Fit 63/100
Digby is the KTB selection and remains a smart performer on his best days, as evidenced by an RPR of 117. He has been well below that level this season and failed to complete in both previous runs at Punchestown. The trainer holds a 7 percent strike rate from 184 runs at the track while the 11-year-old drops back in trip today having won twice over this distance in the past. He has shown some ability on good to yielding ground with one win and two places from six starts. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, which looks advantageous given the muddling pace shape.
That's About Right KTB Fit 60/100
That's About Right has a smart rating on his day but has been disappointing for some time and looks nothing like that level on recent evidence. He has never won or placed from three runs at Punchestown and the yard's 4% strike rate from 639 runs here offers little encouragement. Drops back in trip having won twice at this distance earlier in his career though the good-to-yielding ground remains a question after two unplaced efforts on it. Usually held up and produces its effort late, which may not be ideal in a tactical affair.
Cut The Rope KTB Fit 59/100
Cut The Rope is a smart performer on his best days with RPR and Topspeed ratings to match but has been below form on his last two starts and now steps up markedly in trip. He has placed over this distance before without winning and has shown some ability at Punchestown including a second here though he is yet to score on good to yielding ground in three attempts. The yard posts a solid 10 percent strike rate at this track from 41 runs. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, fitting the race's tactical requirements.
Lakewood Rose KTB Fit 59/100
Lakewood Rose is a smart mare who ran to a solid level when fourth in a handicap at Fairyhouse last time and has form figures that suggest she is still progressing. She has been competitive on good to yielding ground but is yet to win in four starts at this trip and makes her debut at Punchestown. The yard has no recorded runners here. Usually held up and produces its effort late, which could be viable if the race develops into a sprint for home.
Fenway Park KTB Fit 58/100
Fenway Park arrives in decent nick after a win and second on his last two starts and holds a smart RPR of 115. He has already won over this trip and on this ground while also scoring at Punchestown itself from four visits. The yard's modest 2% strike rate here is a clear negative. Typically settles in midfield, a run-style that may leave him with a bit to do in a muddling, tactical contest.
The rest of the field
Fortunate LightingKTB Fit 57/100
Fortunate Lightning is a smart performer on his day with an RPR of 117 but has been largely out of form this year and ran no better than eighth on his latest start. He has never won or placed in four runs on good to yielding ground and drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in five previous attempts at this distance. The trainer is still without a Punchestown winner from 18 runs while the horse himself has shown little here in two visits.
AdalizKTB Fit 57/100
Adaliz is a smart performer on her day with an RPR of 112 and has won on good to yielding ground as well as at today's trip. She has been well below form on both previous runs at Punchestown and her last two efforts overall were poor. Henry De Bromhead's 11% strike rate from 994 runs at the track is solid if unspectacular while the 7lb claimer has limited course experience.
Act Of GodKTB Fit 56/100
Act Of God is a smart performer on his day with an RPR of 116 and has won twice over today's trip from seven attempts. He has shown little on his two runs at Punchestown though and is zero from four on good to yielding ground. The trainer's 6% strike rate from 50 runs at the track adds little encouragement.
QaasidKTB Fit 55/100
Qaasid is a smart performer on his figures who showed he retains plenty of ability when winning last time. He has won over today's trip but his record on good to yielding ground is modest with no win or place from two starts. The trainer's 5% strike rate from 311 runs at Punchestown adds a note of caution.
Mary's PrideKTB Fit 55/100
Mary's Pride is a smart performer on her day with a recent second that backed up her solid RPR of 116. She has shown ability on good to yielding ground but steps up in trip today having failed to win in six previous attempts at this distance. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Punchestown is a concern and she was well beaten on her only previous run here.
Icare DesboisKTB Fit 55/100
Icare Desbois has produced smart form on his day with an RPR of 118 and has shown he can handle this track when second here previously. He steps up in trip today for the first time in a while having last run over 2m1f and his three runs on good to yielding ground have yielded no win or place. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Punchestown from 107 runs adds a note of caution.
Lord FfrenchKTB Fit 55/100
Lord Ffrench is a smart performer on his best days with an RPR of 114 but has been inconsistent and failed to build on an 8l win at Cork last summer. He has shown little on good to yielding ground in three attempts and is now 0-3 at this trip. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Punchestown from 68 runs adds to the reservations.
CostanuciKTB Fit 53/100
Costanuci is a smart performer on his day with a solid RPR of 117 and has placed here at Punchestown without winning in four runs. He drops back in trip to 2m3f where he has won twice from 11 starts though his recent form of 4P45P- raises questions about current sharpness. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 120 runs at this track while the jockey has limited experience here.
FairlanderKTB Fit 53/100
Fairlander is a smart performer on his best days with an RPR of 117 and has placed at this trip in two of four runs. He showed ability when third of 19 on handicap debut at Down Royal in March but was well held when stepped up in grade at the Punchestown festival. The trainer has a 4% strike rate from 639 runs at this track while the horse himself finished 15th on his only previous visit here.
Hidalgo Des MottesKTB Fit 51/100
Hidalgo Des Mottes is a smart performer on his best days with RPR 117 and has shown enough placed form at today's trip to suggest the distance is within range. He has been out of the frame on both previous runs at Punchestown and his trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track adds little confidence. The 9-year-old has been competitive on good to yielding ground without winning and arrives here on the back of an ordinary return.
Cock And BullKTB Fit 50/100
Cock And Bull is a smart performer who ran to a rating of 111 on his best effort. He steps up in trip today having shown little spark in four starts this year and arrives with something to prove on this ground having never raced on good to yielding. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Punchestown from 109 runs.
Goin'KTB Fit 38/100
Goin' is a useful performer on his figures but has been well held in all three starts this year and showed little spark when last seen. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Punchestown from a large sample is another negative while the horse has failed to place in three runs on this sort of ground. Steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him.
KTB verdict
Digby is the KTB selection and shapes as the one to beat if he can rediscover the smart level suggested by his RPR of 117. Dropping back to a trip where he has won twice in the past, with a prominent run-style that fits the muddling pace, he holds the best blend of ability and suitability on good to yielding ground. The main dangers are the other prominent racers Cut The Rope, who has placed at the course, and Adaliz, plus the in-form Fenway Park who has already won over course and distance. Lakewood Rose and That's About Right also enter calculations on their best figures but face respective questions over the track and current form.
KTB Selection Digby
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:05 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Digby | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Cut The Rope | 12/1 | Bet Victor |
| Lakewood Rose | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Fenway Park | 11/1 | BresBet |
| Fortunate Lighting | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Adaliz | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Act Of God | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Qaasid | 4/1 | Unibet |
| Mary's Pride | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Lord Ffrench | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Costanuci | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Fairlander | 13/2 | BetTom |
| Hidalgo Des Mottes | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Goin' | 7/1 | Unibet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:07 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection?
Digby
What is the pace shape for this race?
Muddling / tactical (confidence: medium) — No obvious front-runner; a muddling, tactical race that should suit those ridden close to the pace.
How many wins has Digby had over today's distance?
Two
Which horse has won both over this trip and at Punchestown?
Fenway Park
What is the trainer strike rate at Punchestown for the yard of the top-rated horse on RPR?
Icare Desbois has the joint-highest RPR of 118; his trainer David Harry Kelly has a 5% strike rate at Punchestown from 107 runs.
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