3:13 Brighton
This Class 4 restricted novice stakes at Brighton over six and a half furlongs on good to firm ground brings together five two-year-olds, three of whom have already shown their hand on the racecourse. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top end, with the selection on 51, the second and third principals on 48 and 47 respectively, and the remaining pair not far behind at 47 and 39. With no obvious front-runner in a race that lacks a leader, the contest is expected to be tactical and steadily run, placing a premium on being handy and on the ability to improve from limited evidence.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader and low confidence in any strong pace, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. The Monkey King is the only one with a prominent run-style and is likely to race on or close to the speed from stall 2, while Foscarini and Cinq Coins should also be able to take up forward positions. Regalism and Demonstrate are both held-up types who will look to produce their efforts late, raising the key question of whether the race will be won from the front or if the closers can time their runs effectively off a modest gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Foscarini KTB Selection51/100Foscarini has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fifth and sixth without suggesting he is ahead of the average 2yo.
- 2Cinq Coins48/100Cinq Coins is a debutant with limited racecourse evidence to go on.
- 3The Monkey King47/100Lightly raced colt who has shown fair form in two starts, finishing third on debut then sixth last time.
- 4Regalism47/100Regalism showed fair pace on debut when fifth over this trip and looks sure to improve with racing.
- 5Demonstrate39/100Demonstrate has only one run to his name so any assessment is tentative at best.
The contenders
Foscarini KTB Fit 51/100
Foscarini has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fifth and sixth without suggesting he is ahead of the average 2yo. The trip looks no better than fair for him on what he has shown. Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton and jockey Charles Bishop both have solid records at Brighton, with the yard posting a 19% strike rate from 317 runs and the rider a 14% strike rate from 251 rides. This remains a low-confidence read given the small sample and the fact he has no previous experience of good to firm ground or of this course. He is the KTB selection and brings the highest Fit score of 51 into the race.
Cinq Coins KTB Fit 48/100
Cinq Coins is a debutant with limited racecourse evidence to go on. The Roger Teal yard posts an 11% strike-rate at Brighton from 102 runs while William Carson shows an identical 11% from 547 rides here, both figures slightly below par. Pedigree and sales background will carry most weight given the low data confidence. By Territories, he has a 10% overall win rate attached to the sire from 3674 runners. He is drawn in stall 4 and is likely to be handy in a race where that should pay, though the whole profile remains short of hard facts.
The Monkey King KTB Fit 47/100
The Monkey King is a lightly raced colt who has shown fair form in two starts, finishing third on debut then sixth last time. He has already placed at today's trip and is drawn nicely in stall 2, but the small sample means his true level is still unclear. Trainer Ralph Beckett holds a 14% strike rate here from 85 runs while Rhys Clutterbuck is operating at 9% from 129 rides. He has placed once from one run on good to firm and his prominent run-style, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, looks ideally suited to the expected steadily-run, tactical affair. The 47 KTB Fit score puts him right in the mix.
The rest of the field
RegalismKTB Fit 47/100
Regalism showed fair pace on debut when fifth over this trip and looks sure to improve with racing. Haggas has a solid 24% strike-rate at Brighton from a big sample while the 3lb claimer is less proven at the track with a modest 4% record from 28 rides. Everything else is based on a single run so the form has to be treated with caution. His held-up run-style means he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a steadily-run race.
DemonstrateKTB Fit 39/100
Demonstrate has only one run to his name so any assessment is tentative at best. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with very little evidence to go on. Trainer has a tiny sample at Brighton while the jockey's modest 8% strike-rate from 37 rides here offers limited encouragement. He is dropping in class and is another held-up type who will need the race to fall right.
KTB verdict
Foscarini is the KTB selection. He brings the highest Fit score of the field and the yard and jockey combination both have respectable records at Brighton, even if his own form to date has been modest. The steadily-run, tactical nature of the race should suit a horse who can be handy from stall 5. The Monkey King is the most obvious danger, with fair form in the book, a placed effort at the trip, and a prominent run-style that fits the shape well, while Regalism cannot be dismissed given the William Haggas stable's strong 24% strike rate at the track and the likelihood of improvement from his debut fifth.
KTB Selection Foscarini
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 6 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Foscarini | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Cinq Coins | 20/1 | William Hill |
| The Monkey King | 5/6 | William Hill |
| Regalism | 9/4 | LiveScore Bet |
| Demonstrate | 35/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:13 Brighton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Brighton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Foscarini the selection despite modest form and being unproven on good to firm?
He has the highest KTB Fit score of 51 and the trainer and jockey both have solid records at Brighton.
How is the race likely to be run given the pace shape?
It lacks a leader and is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horse is best placed to race prominently?
The Monkey King, who usually races handily on or close to the lead and is drawn in stall 2.
What is the strongest trainer record at Brighton among the runners?
William Haggas with a 24% strike rate from 157 runs.
Why does Demonstrate have the lowest KTB Fit score?
He has only one run to his name, is stepping up in trip, and the trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Help and support: BeGambleAware.org and the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies