3:15 Ayr
This Class 4 handicap over 1m2f at Ayr on good ground features a field of 14 in which the KTB numbers highlight a cluster of fair performers separated by small margins. The top five in the Fit rankings are all in the 57-65 range and each brings course-winning form or strong Ayr trainer stats, while the race lacks an obvious leader. First-time headgear appears on no fewer than eight runners, underlining the tactical and unknown-laden nature of the contest.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any of them can summon the necessary turn of foot off a modest gallop or whether the race will instead fall to something that can race more prominently.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Regalian KTB Selection65/100Regalian is a fair performer who has been struggling this year with three modest efforts from his last three starts.
- 2Spirit Of Acklam63/100Spirit Of Acklam is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at Ayr and also has a solid record on good ground with two wins and three places from s…
- 3Obito62/100Fair performer who has won over this trip and at Ayr.
- 4Pearl Eye57/100Pearl Eye is a fair handicapper who has won once from four runs at Ayr and also scored at today's trip.
- 5Star Cast57/100Star Cast is a fair performer with a solid recent record of six wins from his last eight starts and has already won over this trip on six occasions from 13 atte…
- 6Cisco Disco56/100Modest performer with a solid record at Ayr, where he has won four times from 22 starts.
- 7Mano Chicago55/100Mano Chicago is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in four of his last five starts including at today's trip.
- 8Lorca's Waltz54/100Lorca's Waltz is a fair 3-year-old who has shown steady improvement since his debut, landing a 1m handicap last time.
- 9Northwest Passage53/100Fair performer who has been a regular in this grade and ran respectably when fifth over course and distance in June.
- 10Break The Bank50/100Fair performer who has been consistent of late with three straight placed efforts.
- 11Boy Named Sioux48/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this season after a promising 4yo campaign.
- 12Ziata48/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress and finished with a win at this trip last time out.
- 13Simply Ruby46/100Modest performer who has shown little since landing a 1m4f handicap at Carlisle last summer.
- 14Molinari44/100Molinari is a modest 9-year-old who has been placed on his last two visits to Ayr without winning.
The contenders
Regalian KTB Fit 65/100
Regalian is a fair performer who has been struggling this year with three modest efforts from his last three starts. He steps up in trip for the first time in a while having failed to win in two previous tries at 1m2f and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer holds a strong 43% strike rate at Ayr while the jockey records a solid 13% at the track. Usually held up, he will be produced late in what is expected to be a steadily-run race. His placed record on good ground suggests conditions will suit, though he has no previous course form on record. The 65 KTB Fit score marks him out as the selection.
Spirit Of Acklam KTB Fit 63/100
Spirit Of Acklam is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at Ayr and also has a solid record on good ground with two wins and three places from six runs. He drops back from 1m5f to a trip he has won twice from six attempts, though the first-time headgear adds an unknown. Trainer and jockey both hold above-average records at the track. Usually held up, he will be ridden for a late run in a race likely to be tactical. The 63 KTB Fit score keeps him firmly in the mix among the principals.
Obito KTB Fit 62/100
Obito is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at Ayr. Recent form has been patchy but he has run well enough here in the past and handles good ground. First-time headgear is now added. Usually held up, he will need to produce his effort at the right time off what should be a steady gallop. Both trainer and jockey post 15% strike rates at the track, giving the combination a solid platform. The 62 KTB Fit score places him right in the thick of what looks a competitive renewal.
Pearl Eye KTB Fit 57/100
Pearl Eye is a fair handicapper who has won once from four runs at Ayr and also scored at today's trip. He has been in and out of form this year with a recent sequence of 413614 and is now tried in first-time headgear off a mark that looks stiff enough. The yard and jockey both have solid records at the track. Usually held up, he will be coming from off the pace in a race where being handy is expected to pay. His two wins from 15 runs on good ground indicate the surface is not a problem. The 57 KTB Fit score keeps him among the main contenders.
Star Cast KTB Fit 57/100
Star Cast is a fair performer with a solid recent record of six wins from his last eight starts and has already won over this trip on six occasions from 13 attempts. He has course experience in his favour having won here from two runs and acts on good ground with a win and a placing from just two starts. The yard has a respectable record at Ayr but the claiming jockey is operating below the course average. Usually held up, though with medium confidence, he will need to time his run in a steadily-run affair. The 57 KTB Fit score leaves him with every chance on paper.
The rest of the field
Cisco DiscoKTB Fit 56/100
Cisco Disco is a modest performer with a solid record at Ayr, where he has won four times from 22 starts. He steps up in trip today having last run over 1m, though he has won three times from 12 starts at this distance. Trainer strikes at 8% here from a big sample while the jockey has a stronger 17% record from 77 rides.
Mano ChicagoKTB Fit 55/100
Mano Chicago is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in four of his last five starts including at today's trip. He steps up from 1m1½f with first-time headgear and has shown he can be competitive on good ground. Trainer and jockey both have solid but unspectacular records at Ayr.
Lorca's WaltzKTB Fit 54/100
Lorca's Waltz is a fair 3-year-old who has shown steady improvement since his debut, landing a 1m handicap last time. The step up to 1m2f is an unknown but the pedigree and Haggas record both suggest it could suit, while first-time headgear is another positive. The yard's 25% strike rate at Ayr adds confidence though the jockey is operating at a more modest level here.
Northwest PassageKTB Fit 53/100
Northwest Passage is a fair performer who has been a regular in this grade and ran respectably when fifth over course and distance in June. Drops back from 1m3f to a trip he has won at before, though his recent efforts have been patchy and he has failed to place on his last four starts. Trainer's modest record at Ayr is a concern while the jockey's solid course strike rate offers some compensation.
Break The BankKTB Fit 50/100
Break The Bank is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with three straight placed efforts. He has run well over this trip in the past and has already shown his liking for Ayr when second here on his only previous visit. First-time headgear is now added while both trainer and jockey have solid rather than sparkling records at the track.
Boy Named SiouxKTB Fit 48/100
Boy Named Sioux is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this season after a promising 4yo campaign. Steps up markedly in trip today while wearing headgear for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer holds a solid record at Ayr but the jockey's strike-rate here is modest.
ZiataKTB Fit 48/100
Ziata is a modest performer who has shown steady progress and finished with a win at this trip last time out. Drawn wide in stall 10 and faces a stiffer task in this higher grade. Trainer strikes at a solid 18% rate here while the jockey's 5% record from 63 rides is more modest.
Simply RubyKTB Fit 46/100
Simply Ruby is a modest performer who has shown little since landing a 1m4f handicap at Carlisle last summer. Dropping back to 1m2f looks a fresh question while the first-time headgear is another unknown, and her sole run here was a modest sixth. Trainer and jockey both hold a 10% strike-rate at Ayr from decent-sized samples.
MolinariKTB Fit 44/100
Molinari is a modest 9-year-old who has been placed on his last two visits to Ayr without winning. He drops back from 1m4½f to a trip he has won at twice from 25 starts, and he acts on good ground with three wins from 13 runs. The trainer's modest 9% strike-rate at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 13% record here.
KTB verdict
Regalian is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with the benefit of a yard that strikes at 43% at Ayr, he is open to improvement in first-time headgear while stepping up in trip, and the steadily-run nature of the race should suit his held-up style. The selection is closely matched on the numbers with Spirit Of Acklam, who boasts a fine record at the track and on good ground, and Obito, who has already won over the course and distance. Pearl Eye and Star Cast, both also in first-time headgear and with course form, complete the main dangers in what looks a typically competitive Ayr handicap.
KTB Selection Regalian
This is the narrative read of the 3:15 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time in a while while also trying headgear?
Regalian
How many wins has Spirit Of Acklam recorded at Ayr?
Two of his three starts at Ayr
Which trainer has a 25% strike rate at Ayr in this race?
William Haggas with Lorca's Waltz
Which horse has won four times from 22 starts at Ayr?
Cisco Disco
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
All five principals are wearing first-time headgear.
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