3:20 Ascot
This Class 2 handicap over six furlongs at Ascot brings together a dozen three-year-olds on good to firm ground in the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint. The KTB Fit scores identify a compact bunch at the top with American Gulf heading the numbers on 68, followed by Havana Hurricane on 64 and Red Spells Danger on 60, suggesting a race where progressive types and those with solid placed form will be to the fore. The strong pace anticipated should test those up front while offering opportunities for patient runners.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, the pace shape is strong and confidence in that assessment is high. Grasmere Boy and Shaatir both tend to make the running or race prominently, which is likely to set a searching gallop on this straight track and raises the possibility of the leaders folding late. That scenario would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Havana Hurricane, Figjam, Thunder Call and May Angel, all of whom usually produce their effort from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate terms or if the race will be won from mid-division or further back.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1American Gulf KTB Selection68/100Useful performer who showed solid placed form over this trip on his last two starts.
- 2Havana Hurricane64/100Useful performer who has won once and placed once from three runs at Ascot.
- 3Red Spells Danger60/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip from five attempts and brings strong recent form including two victories this year.
- 4Anyasi58/100Useful performer who has won both starts at this trip.
- 5Figjam56/100Figjam is a useful performer who has won over today's trip but has struggled to build on that in recent starts, finishing no better than sixth in four of his la…
- 6Thunder Call55/100Thunder Call is a useful 3 year old with a strong recent record of 02-113 that includes two wins at today's trip.
- 7Grasmere Boy54/100Grasmere Boy is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after two wins from his last three starts, including a success at this trip.
- 8Shaatir52/100Useful performer who has won over this trip but has looked short of his best on both starts this year.
- 9One And Gone49/100Fair performer who has been in and out this season and showed his best form when winning twice over 5f earlier in the year.
- 10May Angel48/100Useful performer who has shown some promise at this track, finishing third on one of two visits.
- 11Cape Ashizuri47/100Useful performer who has already won twice at this trip from just four attempts.
- 12Jel Pepper45/100Useful performer who has dropped to a winnable mark after four runs since landing a 6f handicap last year.
The contenders
American Gulf KTB Fit 68/100
American Gulf arrives as a useful performer who showed solid placed form over this trip on his last two starts. He has already won on good to firm and the trainer’s record at Ascot adds some encouragement, with Oliver Cole operating at a 14% strike rate and an A/E of 1.5 from seven runs. The jockey also brings strong figures, Suraj Narredu recording a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.99 from six rides. Yet he was well beaten on his only previous run here and stall 12 looks no help on a straight track. His recent form figures of 10922- underline consistent ability at this distance.
Havana Hurricane KTB Fit 64/100
Havana Hurricane is a useful performer who has won once and placed once from three runs at Ascot. He steps up from five to six furlongs today having been placed three times from five starts at this trip without winning, while he also has a win and a placing from four runs on good to firm. The yard holds an 8% strike rate from 226 runs at the track, which is respectable given the volume. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to the strong pace that is forecast. His course record of one win from three starts is a clear positive in a race where hold-up horses are expected to be favoured.
Red Spells Danger KTB Fit 60/100
Red Spells Danger is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip from five attempts and brings strong recent form including two victories this year. He has never run at Ascot before and is zero from three on good to firm ground so both the track and going pose fresh questions. Tim Easterby has a 9% strike rate from 222 runs at the course while Saffie Osborne takes the ride and boasts a 15% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.62 from 141 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 0/5 (0%) record together on the card. Usually held up, he should be suited if the leaders go hard early.
Anyasi KTB Fit 58/100
Anyasi is a useful performer who has won both starts at this trip. Good-to-firm ground clearly suits with a win from two runs, and the yard's solid record at Ascot adds some confidence with Roger Varian posting a 12% strike rate and an A/E of 0.94 from 481 runs. Stepping up in class, he remains open to improvement with only three runs in the book. His recent form figures of 3-11 highlight progressive form at this distance. Without a jockey course record available, the focus remains on his unbeaten record at six furlongs and the trainer's long-term course strength.
Figjam KTB Fit 56/100
Figjam is a useful performer who has won over today's trip but has struggled to build on that in recent starts, finishing no better than sixth in four of his last five outings. He has shown little on good to firm ground from two attempts and makes his first visit to Ascot. The trainer has only one run here which is too small a sample to judge, showing a 0% strike rate and A/E of 0. Dropping in class should help and his run-style of usually being held up and producing his effort late aligns perfectly with the expected strong pace. Recent form of -74646 shows consistency without sparkle.
The rest of the field
Thunder CallKTB Fit 55/100
Thunder Call is a useful 3 year old with a strong recent record of 02-113 that includes two wins at today's trip. He has the benefit of a high draw in stall 11 and connections that know their way around Ascot with William Haggas posting a 13% strike rate and an A/E of 0.88 from 862 runs. The going remains an unknown on only five career runs, though he has placed once from one start on good to firm. Usually held up, he is well placed for a race with a strong pace.
Grasmere BoyKTB Fit 54/100
Grasmere Boy is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after two wins from his last three starts, including a success at this trip. He has strong recent race history and useful connections at Ascot, though both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates here with Julie Camacho at 6% and an A/E of 0.65 from 31 runs, and Yutaka Take at 7% and an A/E of 0.68 from 54 rides. The going remains an unknown given his light career total, though he has placed once from one start on good to firm. Tending to make the running, he will help set the strong pace.
ShaatirKTB Fit 52/100
Shaatir is a useful performer who has won over this trip but has looked short of his best on both starts this year. Dropping back from 7f should suit and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition, though his only previous run here was poor when twelfth. Trainer Archie Watson has a modest 6% strike rate and A/E of 0.74 from 194 runs at Ascot. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will contribute to the strong early gallop.
One And GoneKTB Fit 49/100
One And Gone is a fair performer who has been in and out this season and showed his best form when winning twice over 5f earlier in the year. He steps up to 6f for the first time since a placed effort at this trip last season which adds an unknown element while his sole run on good to firm ground brought no joy. Ian Williams has an 8% strike rate from 348 runs at Ascot. Usually held up, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace.
May AngelKTB Fit 48/100
May Angel is a useful performer who has shown some promise at this track, finishing third on one of two visits. Has not managed a win or place in four runs on good to firm ground and was well held when last seen over this trip. First-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up and producing effort late, the strong pace should suit. John & Thady Gosden have a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.81 from 310 runs.
Cape AshizuriKTB Fit 47/100
Cape Ashizuri is a useful performer who has already won twice at this trip from just four attempts. Recent form of 152-10 shows ability but also a tendency to mix his form. Trainer is operating at a 0% strike rate from six runs at Ascot while the small going sample leaves that side of the equation unknown as he has had no runs on good to firm. Usually held up, he will look to benefit if the pace collapses late.
Jel PepperKTB Fit 45/100
Jel Pepper is a useful performer who has dropped to a winnable mark after four runs since landing a 6f handicap last year. First-time headgear is a positive but the yard's modest 4% strike-rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.57 from 207 runs and the horse's complete lack of form on good to firm ground from four runs are clear negatives. Stall one could help on this sharp track. Usually held up, the strong pace is in his favour.
KTB verdict
American Gulf is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who showed solid placed form over this trip on his last two starts, has already won on good to firm, and benefits from the trainer’s encouraging record at Ascot. The combination of his ability at the distance, the yard’s course figures and the jockey’s strong Ascot record make him the one to beat despite the wide draw. Main dangers are Havana Hurricane, who has won and placed at the track and is ideally suited to a strong pace from the rear, and Red Spells Danger, who brings strong recent form and two wins at the trip even if the track and going are unknowns. Anyasi and Figjam round out the main contenders with scope and pace suitability respectively.
KTB Selection American Gulf
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Havana Hurricane, Figjam, Thunder Call, May Angel, One And Gone and Cape Ashizuri are all usually held up and produce their effort late, which should suit if the pace collapses as anticipated.
How many horses have won at Ascot previously?
Havana Hurricane has won once from three runs at Ascot; American Gulf, Red Spells Danger, Anyasi, Figjam, Thunder Call, Grasmere Boy, One And Gone, Cape Ashizuri and Jel Pepper have no wins at the track.
Which runners are making their first appearance at Ascot?
Red Spells Danger, Anyasi, Figjam, Thunder Call, Grasmere Boy, One And Gone, Cape Ashizuri and Jel Pepper have no course form on record.
Who are the two most likely front-runners?
Grasmere Boy tends to make the running or race on the pace, as does Shaatir.
Which horse has the best recent winning record at six furlongs?
Red Spells Danger has won twice at this trip from five attempts, while Anyasi has won both starts at the distance and Cape Ashizuri has won twice from four attempts.
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