3:30 Fontwell
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Fontwell over 2m1f162y on good ground brings together a compact field of five smart performers, several of whom arrive in decent nick. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Granny Hawkins heading the list on 64, followed by Sixty Plus on 61 and Almuhit on 57. Recent form is mixed but the official ratings are all in the 115-119 bracket, promising a competitive heat on a track where several trainers and jockeys have respectable records.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run, with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types in what should be a fair test. Sixty Plus is the one who tends to make the running or race prominently, while Sun Joy and Almuhit are also usually on or close to the pace. Granny Hawkins and Break Point prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late, so the key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or if the race will fall into the lap of a strong finisher from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Granny Hawkins KTB Selection64/100Smart performer who arrives in excellent order having won three of her last four starts.
- 2Sixty Plus61/100Smart performer who arrives with a solid RPR of 118 and has already won over today's trip.
- 3Almuhit57/100Almuhit is a smart performer on his best days with an RPR of 119 and has won twice over today's trip.
- 4Sun Joy54/100Smart performer who has run to a high level on several occasions and arrives here off the back of a solid placed effort at this track.
- 5Break Point42/100Smart performer who ran to a high level last season but was well below form on return at Worcester.
The contenders
Granny Hawkins KTB Fit 64/100
Granny Hawkins is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order having won three of her last four starts. She has a solid record on good ground with three wins from ten starts and has already won over today's trip. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late, a run-style that could suit if the race develops as expected. Alan King has a 23% strike rate at Fontwell from 290 runs with an A/E of 0.95, while Tom Bellamy boasts a 17% strike rate at the track from 113 rides with an A/E of 1.16. Their combined trainer-jockey record stands at 108/775 (14%) with an A/E of 0.86.
Sixty Plus KTB Fit 61/100
Sixty Plus is a smart performer who arrives with a solid RPR of 118 and has already won over today's trip. The six-year-old drops back in class and in trip from 2m4f, having shown placed form on good ground four times from 13 starts. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could be an advantage in a genuinely-run affair. James Owen has a 22% strike rate at Fontwell from 41 runs with an A/E of 0.75, while Sam Twiston-Davies has a 22% strike rate at the track from 285 rides with an A/E of 0.93. Their trainer-jockey partnership reads 23/112 (21%) with an A/E of 0.73.
Almuhit KTB Fit 57/100
Almuhit is a smart performer on his best days with an RPR of 119 and has won twice over today's trip. He has been consistent enough in recent runs, though his three efforts at Fontwell have produced no better than fifth. The seven-year-old usually races handily on or close to the lead and steps up in distance today from 2m while dropping in class. Faye Bramley has a 0% strike rate at Fontwell from a small sample of four runs with an A/E of 0, but Harry Cobden has a 22% strike rate at the track from 174 rides with an A/E of 0.82. Their trainer-jockey record is 5/20 (25%) with an A/E of 1.17.
The rest of the field
Sun JoyKTB Fit 54/100
Sun Joy is a smart performer who has run to a high level on several occasions and arrives here off the back of a solid placed effort at this track. He is consistent on good ground with a win and four places from seven starts though he is yet to score over this trip in five attempts, and the trainer maintains a solid 18% strike rate at Fontwell from a large sample of 150 runs.
Break PointKTB Fit 42/100
Break Point is a smart performer who ran to a high level last season but was well below form on return at Worcester. He drops back in trip having been placed without winning at this distance previously and has a solid record on good ground, though the trainer's modest 2% strike rate at Fontwell from 128 runs offers little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Granny Hawkins stands out as the KTB Selection. She comes into the race in excellent order with three wins from her last four starts, possesses a solid record on good ground, and has already won over today's trip. Alan King's 23% strike rate at Fontwell and Tom Bellamy's record at the track add further layers of confidence. The main dangers are likely to come from Sixty Plus, who can make the running and drops in class, and Almuhit, who is capable of a big run on his best days despite a modest course record.
KTB Selection Granny Hawkins
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Fontwell. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Fontwell racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won three of its last four starts?
Granny Hawkins, who arrives in excellent order.
Who is likely to set the pace in this race?
Sixty Plus tends to make the running or race on the pace, and will be pressed by prominent runners such as Sun Joy and Almuhit.
Which horse has the highest official RPR in the field?
Almuhit with an RPR of 119.
Has Granny Hawkins any previous form at Fontwell?
No course form on record.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Fontwell among those represented?
Faye Bramley with a 25% strike rate from 20 runs, though from a small sample.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies