3:30 Galway
The Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Steeplechase at Galway brings together a competitive field of 12 high-class performers over 2m2f54y on good ground. With every runner rated within a narrow band and several arriving off recent placed efforts, the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining the depth on show. First-time headgear features on half the field, adding layers of unknowns to a race already shaped by the stiff track and the possibility of an easy lead.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested advantage that could prove difficult for the closers to reel in late. Most of the principals, including the selection, are held-up types who produce their efforts from off the pace, raising the key question of whether they can bridge the gap to a clear front-runner on this demanding circuit. Runcok is the only prominent runner likely to challenge for the lead early, which may hand him an uncontested advantage if he is allowed his own way.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Path d'Oroux61/100High-class performer with a solid course record here at Galway where he has already won.
- 2Coming Up Easy61/100High-class performer who has won at today's trip and returns in first-time headgear after a break.
- 3Lisleigh Lad61/100Lisleigh Lad is a high-class performer with a solid career record that includes two wins from five starts on good ground.
- 4Blood Destiny KTB Selection61/100High-class performer who showed his ability when second here last time out and has solid placed form on good ground.
- 5Le Nez Creux57/100Le Nez Creux is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last five starts.
- 6The Banger Doyle55/100High-class performer with strong recent form including a second last time out.
- 7Watch The Weather53/100High-class performer with strong ratings and history who has placed here without winning.
- 8Bythesametoken51/100Smart performer who has placed on both previous runs at Galway and remains competitive on good ground.
- 9Runcok51/100High-class on his day but has looked short of his best on both starts this season and failed to place in four runs on good ground.
- 10Itsalladream49/100High-class performer with strong course connections, including a win from three runs at Galway.
- 11Drumgill47/100High-class performer with strong ratings and history who has won twice from four starts at this trip.
- 12War Correspondent44/100High-class on his day but has looked short of spark for a while and was well held when last seen.
The contenders
Path d'Oroux KTB Fit 61/100
Path d'Oroux remains a high-class performer with a solid course record here at Galway where he has already won. He steps up in trip today having been well held on his return from a break last time and now tries headgear for the first time. Gavin Cromwell's 7% strike rate at the track from 373 runs is a negative, as is the modest 8/42 record when teaming up with Eoghan Finegan. The horse has won once from four starts on good ground and his usual held-up run-style means he will be looking to come from off the pace in what looks a race with an easy leader.
Coming Up Easy KTB Fit 61/100
Coming Up Easy is a high-class performer who has won at today's trip and returns in first-time headgear after a break. Dropping back from 2m5f while unproven on good ground adds a couple of questions. Henry De Bromhead operates at an 11% strike rate from 304 runs at Galway, with Darragh O'Keeffe showing a 9% strike rate from 199 rides at the track. The horse is usually held up and produces his effort late, which could leave him with plenty to do if the lone leader is allowed to get away.
Lisleigh Lad KTB Fit 61/100
Lisleigh Lad is a high-class performer with a solid career record that includes two wins from five starts on good ground. He arrives in decent nick after a placed effort last time but now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. This is his first run at Galway for a trainer with no recorded runs here, while Alan O'Sullivan's 4% strike rate at the venue from 23 rides adds to the unknowns. Usually held up, he will need to find a way to close on the uncontested leader in a race where that early advantage may be hard to overcome.
Blood Destiny KTB Fit 61/100
Blood Destiny is a high-class performer who showed his ability when second here last time out and has solid placed form on good ground. Dropping back in trip poses a fresh question while first-time headgear adds an unknown. Willie Mullins has a 19% strike rate from 923 runs at Galway and Paul Townend is the go-to rider with a 15% strike rate from 392 rides at the track. Usually held up, he will be produced late, relying on the pair's considerable combined record at the venue to overcome the likely easy lead up front.
Le Nez Creux KTB Fit 57/100
Le Nez Creux is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, though he remains unproven on good ground. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition for a horse making his debut at Galway where Gavin Cromwell operates at a 7% strike rate from 373 runs. Mark Walsh has a 10% strike rate at the track from 323 rides, and the horse's held-up style will again see him coming from off the pace in a contest with a clear front-runner.
The rest of the field
The Banger DoyleKTB Fit 55/100
The Banger Doyle is a high-class performer with strong recent form including a second last time out. He has placed without winning in three runs at Galway and steps up in trip today having failed to score in one previous attempt at this distance. John Queally records a 12% strike-rate from 69 runs here while the horse is 2-14 on good ground.
Watch The WeatherKTB Fit 53/100
Watch The Weather is a high-class performer with strong ratings and history who has placed here without winning. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried while wearing headgear for the first time. R P Cody holds a modest 8% strike rate from 37 runs at Galway.
BythesametokenKTB Fit 51/100
Bythesametoken is a smart performer who has placed on both previous runs at Galway and remains competitive on good ground. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question at the age of 12. First-time headgear is another unknown.
RuncokKTB Fit 51/100
Runcok is high-class on his day but has looked short of his best on both starts this season and failed to place in four runs on good ground. Only one previous run at Galway yielded a remote seventh while two attempts at this trip also drew a blank. First-time headgear is now applied and his front-running style could hand him an uncontested lead.
ItsalladreamKTB Fit 49/100
Itsalladream is a high-class performer with strong course connections, including a win from three runs at Galway. Recent form has been patchy and he drops back in trip today having failed to win in two previous tries at this distance. Paul John Gilligan's modest 6% strike rate at the track from a large sample tempers expectations.
DrumgillKTB Fit 47/100
Drumgill is a high-class performer with strong ratings and history who has won twice from four starts at this trip. He has shown ability on good ground with three wins from eleven starts and connections to the track through his owner. John Patrick Ryan's modest 4% strike-rate at Galway from 134 runs is a clear negative while the recent form of U-75P4 is patchy.
War CorrespondentKTB Fit 44/100
War Correspondent is high-class on his day but has looked short of spark for a while and was well held when last seen. He has placed once from two runs at Galway and steps up in trip for the first time in a while today, which asks a fresh question. First-time headgear is tried while the yard's modest 5% strike rate at the track offers no encouragement.
KTB verdict
The race looks set up for a prominent or front-running horse to make the most of the uncontested lead, yet the strength of the Mullins/Townend combination at Galway cannot be ignored. Blood Destiny is the KTB Selection, a high-class performer who showed his ability when second here last time out and has solid placed form on good ground. The drop back in trip and first-time headgear are the main queries, but the trainer's 19% strike rate and Townend's record at the venue give him the strongest claims. His main dangers are the other high-class performers Path d'Oroux, who has a prior win here, and Le Nez Creux, who brings strong recent form despite being unproven on the ground.
KTB Selection Blood Destiny
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Galway. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Galway racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to secure the uncontested lead?
Runcok is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are trying first-time headgear?
Four of the five principals are wearing first-time headgear: Path d'Oroux, Coming Up Easy, Blood Destiny and Le Nez Creux.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Galway in this race?
W P Mullins has a 19% strike rate at Galway from 923 runs.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Galway?
Path d'Oroux has won here from three runs, while Blood Destiny was second on his only start at the track.
How many runners in the full field are held up?
Ten of the twelve runners are held up and usually produce their effort late.
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