3:34 Leicester
This Class 5 handicap over an extended mile and three furlongs at Leicester on good to firm ground brings together a field of six modest performers, several of whom are trying first-time headgear. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 62 and 47, reflecting a race where recent form is patchy and unknowns abound. Ottoman tops the KTB numbers on the back of a course record that includes two wins from five starts at Leicester.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the line-up. Mountbatten is likely to set the fractions from his favourable draw, with Sahm Naif expected to track or dispute early. This shape should see the race collapse late, playing into the hands of the multiple hold-up performers who can deliver their effort from off the pace in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ottoman KTB Selection62/100Ottoman is a modest performer who has won twice at Leicester from five runs and also has a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins and four places fro…
- 2Barak Warrior59/100Modest performer who showed little in his first three starts before springing a surprise to win at this trip last time out.
- 3Al Maslool55/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a win and two places from his last four starts.
- 4Mountbatten54/100Modest performer who showed some promise when winning a weak handicap over this trip on reappearance.
- 5Robusto53/100Modest performer who has won three times at today's trip but has been largely out of form this year with a recent best of only fifth.
- 6Sahm Naif47/100Modest performer who has shown some spark on this ground with two wins from three starts.
The contenders
Ottoman KTB Fit 62/100
Ottoman is a modest performer who has won twice at Leicester from five runs and also possesses a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins and four places from eight starts. He drops back in trip today having won at this distance before, though his recent form has been patchy with just one win from his last six outings. First-time headgear is now fitted while the trainer holds a 20% strike rate at the track from 15 runs. Jack Callan, who boasts a 29% strike rate and an A/E of 1.98 from 17 rides at Leicester, takes the mount on a horse who usually produces his effort late. The combination of course prowess, suitable going and the yard's record here makes him the KTB Selection.
Barak Warrior KTB Fit 59/100
Barak Warrior is a modest performer who showed little in his first three starts before springing a surprise to win at this trip last time out. Stall 1 could be an advantage on the sharp Leicester track but the yard has no recorded runners here. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride, a jockey with a 20% strike rate and A/E of 1.1 from 319 rides at the track, on a horse that still has something to prove after only four career runs. He steps up in class having been held up in his races to date. With the strong pace likely to unfold, his hold-up style could see him benefit if the leaders fold late.
Al Maslool KTB Fit 55/100
Al Maslool is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a win and two places from his last four starts. He drops back in trip having been placed over this distance before and now tries first-time headgear. William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at Leicester from 219 runs while Cieren Fallon is on board for the first time; the trainer-jockey combination shows 208 winners from 910 rides at 23% with an A/E of 0.96. Usually held up with high confidence, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace that could cause the race to collapse late on good to firm ground where he has had just one run without placing.
Mountbatten KTB Fit 54/100
Mountbatten is a modest performer who showed some promise when winning a weak handicap over this trip on reappearance. Dropping back from 1m6f looks a sensible move though the first-time headgear is an unknown and the yard's modest strike rate at Leicester offers no particular edge, with Sir Mark Prescott registering an 11% strike rate and A/E of 0.79 from 225 runs. The trainer-jockey partnership with Dylan Hogan reads 7 wins from 71 rides at 10% with an A/E of 0.52. A front-runner with high confidence, he is set to make the running in a race where the pace is likely to be strong, which could test his ability to see it out on ground where he is unproven.
The rest of the field
RobustoKTB Fit 53/100
Robusto is a modest performer who has won three times at today's trip but has been largely out of form this year with a recent best of only fifth. He drops back from 1m4½f with first-time headgear and makes his Leicester debut from stall 4. Eve Johnson Houghton has a 10% strike rate at the track from 187 runs while the 5lb claimer Harry Vigors is yet to ride a winner here; the trainer-jockey record stands at 2 wins from 6 rides at 33%.
Sahm NaifKTB Fit 47/100
Sahm Naif is a modest performer who has shown some spark on this ground with two wins from three starts. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m1f, which asks a fresh question of him, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. James Horton has an 8% strike rate from 24 runs at Leicester and the horse finished a fair fourth when he tried this track on his only previous visit. A front-runner with medium confidence, he is likely to be involved in the strong early pace on ground that suits.
KTB verdict
Ottoman is the KTB Selection. He brings a strong course record of two wins from five starts at Leicester, a proven record on good to firm ground, and the yard's solid 20% strike rate at the venue. His hold-up style is perfectly suited to the strong pace that is expected to unfold and potentially collapse late. The main dangers are Barak Warrior, who arrives on the back of a surprise win at this trip, and Al Maslool, who has shown recent consistency and tries first-time headgear for a powerful yard. Mountbatten is likely to set the pace but carries his own question marks.
KTB Selection Ottoman
This is the narrative read of the 3:34 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at Leicester?
Ottoman, who has won twice at the track from five runs.
How many of these runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four: Ottoman, Al Maslool, Mountbatten and Robusto. Sahm Naif also tries it.
Which runners are likely to contest the early pace?
Mountbatten, a habitual front-runner with high confidence, and Sahm Naif, who tends to make the running or race prominently with medium confidence.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey combination record at Leicester according to the supplied stats?
Jack Callan, who has a 29% strike rate and A/E of 1.98 from 17 rides at the track when riding for Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero.
Which horse is dropping back in trip having previously been placed over this distance?
Al Maslool, who drops back in trip having been placed over this distance before.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies