3:37 Doncaster
This Class 5 handicap over 7f at Doncaster features a field of 13 modest performers on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with the top five all rated between 54 and 57, underlining the competitive but largely unexciting nature of the contest. With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical affair, being handy or timing a late run effectively will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run race where position and timing will matter more than raw speed. Most of the field, including the top principals, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, though Bella Bisbee is likely to race prominently. The key question is whether the race will fall to a horse coming from off the pace or one that can take advantage of a handy position in what could become a sprint for the line in the final two furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bright57/100Modest performer with a patchy recent record of 00787 and plenty of miles on the clock.
- 2Documenting KTB Selection57/100Documenting is a modest 13-year-old who has dropped to a workable mark and has placed on both previous visits to Doncaster.
- 3Bella Bisbee55/100Modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of her seven starts at Doncaster.
- 4Criminal Shore55/100Modest performer who has been inconsistent this year and showed little at this track on his only visit.
- 5Rock Opera54/100Rock Opera is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts.
- 6Imperial Guard54/100Imperial Guard is a fair performer who has been in excellent form of late, winning three of his last four starts.
- 7Thapa VC52/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from seven runs and also has a solid record on good to firm, including four wins from twelve starts.
- 8Nyman52/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of consistency but no win since last year.
- 9Age Of Baroque51/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start.
- 10War Howl48/100Modest performer who has won once from two starts at this track.
- 11The Childe Of Hale46/100Modest performer who has won once in two runs at this track.
- 12Sunriseontheboyne44/100Modest performer with a long losing run and recent form figures that show no spark.
- 13Starliner39/100Modest performer who has been running to much the same level all year without winning.
The contenders
Bright KTB Fit 57/100
Bright is a modest performer with a patchy recent record of 00787 and plenty of miles on the clock. He has won over course and distance in the past though, and the trainer’s 10% strike-rate at Doncaster from 92 runs carries a solid A/E of 1.12. Steps up to 7f for the first time today on ground that has already produced a win and two places from six starts. Usually held up and produces its effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a steadily-run affair. The combination of trainer Mark Loughnane and jockey Darragh Keenan has a 0/9 record together.
Documenting KTB Fit 57/100
Documenting is a modest 13-year-old who has dropped to a workable mark and has placed on both previous visits to Doncaster. He has won five times at today's trip though his record on good to firm is only one win from 18 starts, so the surface is a slight negative. The Frost yard holds a solid 17% strike-rate here from six runs and Jack Mitchell takes the ride, the pair having a 1/6 record together. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he should be well suited to the steadily-run nature of this race. Recent form of 5-7020 suggests he retains enough ability to be competitive from a favourable mark.
Bella Bisbee KTB Fit 55/100
Bella Bisbee is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of her seven starts at Doncaster. She has shown enough on good to firm as well, winning once and placing three times from eight runs, and has four wins from 26 starts at this trip. The yard's 8% strike rate from 286 runs at the track is nothing to shout about but the A/E of 1.18 suggests they are not underperforming. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, she could be well positioned in a race lacking an obvious leader. Dropping in class, the 5-year-old arrives with recent form of 315028.
Criminal Shore KTB Fit 55/100
Criminal Shore is a modest performer who has been inconsistent this year and showed little at this track on his only visit. He has failed to win or place in three runs on good to firm and has also come up short in nine attempts at this trip. First-time headgear is now tried but the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 809 runs offers little encouragement. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will need the new headgear to spark improvement from draw 13. Recent form reads 841060 for the David O'Meara yard.
Rock Opera KTB Fit 54/100
Rock Opera is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts. He has won over this course and trip in the past and acts on good to firm ground though his record on it is modest overall. The step back up to 7f asks a fresh question having been campaigned mainly at 6f of late while the yard's modest strike rate here adds some caution. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he should be suited by the tactical nature of the race. Recent form of 341290 comes for the Richard and Peter Fahey stable.
The rest of the field
Imperial GuardKTB Fit 54/100
Imperial Guard is a fair performer who has been in excellent form of late, winning three of his last four starts. He has solid good-to-firm form with three wins from eight runs and has won at this trip, though he was well beaten on his only previous visit to Doncaster. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate from 606 runs at the track is another negative to weigh up.
Thapa VCKTB Fit 52/100
Thapa VC is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from seven runs and also has a solid record on good to firm, including four wins from twelve starts. He has won at today's trip and showed his best recent form when winning twice last month, though he is now 8 lb higher. First-time headgear is tried from stall 12, while the trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Doncaster adds a note of caution.
NymanKTB Fit 52/100
Nyman is a modest performer with a solid recent record of consistency but no win since last year. Drops back to 7f having won twice at the trip from 12 attempts, though last run was over 1m, and has placed once from four starts on good to firm. Trainer has a 12% strike rate from 169 runs at Doncaster while this is the horse's first run here.
Age Of BaroqueKTB Fit 51/100
Age Of Baroque is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start. He has won over today's trip and has been competitive on good to firm ground, though he remains winless in three attempts on it. The yard holds a solid 12% strike rate at Doncaster from a decent sample.
War HowlKTB Fit 48/100
War Howl is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at this track. Recent form of 900009 makes for grim reading and he arrives here on a long losing run. Drops back to 7f today having won at the trip in the past though the yard's modest 6% strike rate at Doncaster offers little encouragement.
The Childe Of HaleKTB Fit 46/100
The Childe Of Hale is a modest performer who has won once in two runs at this track. Drops back to 7f having been well held over 1m on his last two starts and is now tried in first-time headgear. Trainer records a 7% strike rate here from 197 runs while the jockey has a 4% record from 147 rides at Doncaster.
SunriseontheboyneKTB Fit 44/100
Sunriseontheboyne is a modest performer with a long losing run and recent form figures that show no spark. Drops back to 7f having won at the trip earlier in his career, though last time out was over a mile. Trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here from 70 runs while the horse is unproven on good to firm.
StarlinerKTB Fit 39/100
Starliner is a modest performer who has been running to much the same level all year without winning. Drops back to his winning trip with first-time headgear but the yard's modest record here offers little encouragement. Going form is solid on this ground.
KTB verdict
Documenting is the KTB Selection. The 13-year-old has dropped to a workable mark, has placed on both previous visits to Doncaster, and is suited by the steadily-run, tactical nature of a race where most hold up. The Frost yard's solid record at the track and the booking of Jack Mitchell add to the appeal despite the slight negative of his good to firm surface record. Main dangers include Bella Bisbee with her strong course record and prominent run-style, the in-form Imperial Guard, and Rock Opera who has shown consistent form this year.
KTB Selection Documenting
This is the narrative read of the 3:37 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Bella Bisbee has won two of her seven starts at Doncaster.
How many wins has Documenting recorded at this trip?
Documenting has won five times at today's trip.
What is the trainer strike rate at Doncaster for the yard of the KTB Selection?
The Frost yard holds a 17% strike-rate at Doncaster.
Which runner is stepping back up to 7f having been campaigned mainly at 6f?
Rock Opera is the horse stepping back up to 7f having been campaigned mainly at 6f of late.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Criminal Shore, Thapa VC, The Childe Of Hale and Starliner.
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