3:42 York
A field of six two-year-old fillies line up for the Sky Bet Price Boosts EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes, a Class 3 contest over six furlongs at York on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 53 and 43, reflecting a race where debut and lightly raced form leaves plenty to prove and where yard and jockey course records are generally modest. With only one previous winner in the line-up and several runners stepping up or dropping in class, the contest looks open and the official figures offer limited guidance at this early stage.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even breakdown with no pronounced front-running bias. Several runners have shown early speed or prominent styles in their limited outings, while the newcomer will need to find a position. The key question is whether the race will be won from a handy position or if any horse can quicken off a more measured ride, particularly as the step up to six furlongs for some may stretch stamina late on.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Nour KTB Selection53/100Nour showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip.
- 2Hout Bay48/100Hout Bay showed only modest promise when fifth on debut over this trip.
- 3Bear Lee46/100Fair performer who has shown ability in two runs, winning a modest 5f maiden last time.
- 4Desert Smoke45/100Desert Smoke showed only modest form when sixth on debut over this trip.
- 5Gladys Pugh44/100Gladys Pugh showed only modest pace on her debut here over this trip when finishing fifth.
- 6Rogue Jewel43/100Rogue Jewel is a newcomer with nothing on the track to go on.
The contenders
Nour KTB Fit 53/100
Nour showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip and is taken to build on that effort. The small sample means little is known about her true level or how she will handle the track, yet the KTB Fit Score of 53 is the highest in the field. K. R. Burke has a 9% strike rate at York from 650 runs with an A/E of 0.91, while Clifford Lee operates at an 11% strike rate from 216 rides with an A/E of 1. She is placed once from one run on good to firm and steps up in class here, but the combination of debut promise and the yard's solid York record makes her the one to beat.
Hout Bay KTB Fit 48/100
Hout Bay showed only modest promise when fifth on debut over this trip and remains very hard to weigh up with just one run on the board. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at York from 126 runs with an A/E of 0.75, though Rossa Ryan is more positive with a 13% record from 171 rides and an A/E of 1.06. She has one run on good to firm without a win or place and has no course form. The KTB Fit Score of 48 places her second in the rankings, yet the lack of meaningful going or track data leaves her with questions to answer.
Bear Lee KTB Fit 46/100
Bear Lee is a fair performer who has shown ability in two runs, winning a modest 5f maiden last time out. She steps up to 6f today which asks a fresh question, while the yard and jockey both have modest records at York with 4% and 5% strike rates respectively. The KTB Fit Score stands at 46 and she is stepping up in class. No runs on good to firm make the ground unproven, and with only two runs on the board the data carries medium confidence, yet her recent success gives her a solid platform.
Desert Smoke KTB Fit 45/100
Desert Smoke showed only modest form when sixth on debut over this trip. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at York from 146 runs with an A/E of 0.58, but James Doyle has a solid 15% strike rate here from 313 rides with an A/E of 1.06. She has one run on good to firm without a win or place and has no course form. The KTB Fit Score of 45 keeps her in the mix among the principals, though the debut effort and yard record at the track suggest she will need to improve.
The rest of the field
Gladys PughKTB Fit 44/100
Gladys Pugh showed only modest pace on her debut here over this trip when finishing fifth. The Kevin Ryan yard has an 8% strike rate from 1209 runs at York while Kevin Stott is operating at 7% from 261 rides with an A/E of 0.69. She has one run on good to firm without a win or place and has course form of fifth. Dropping in class with a KTB Fit Score of 44, the form remains too thin to read with any confidence.
Rogue JewelKTB Fit 43/100
Rogue Jewel is a newcomer with nothing on the track to go on. The yard has a modest 7% strike-rate at York from 85 runs with an A/E of 0.63 while Daniel Tudhope is more established here with a 10% record from 857 rides and an A/E of 0.86. By Mehmas, who has a 12% overall win rate from 7761 runners, and with no course win on record, pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment. The KTB Fit Score is 43.
KTB verdict
Nour is the KTB Selection. She showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip and has the highest KTB Fit Score in a race where so many runners bring limited information. Burke and Lee both have respectable York records, and her placed effort on good to firm gives her a foothold on the ground. The main dangers are likely to come from Bear Lee, who arrives off a modest maiden win, and the two debutants Hout Bay and Desert Smoke if either can improve past their modest opening efforts. The race should tell us more about several of these lightly raced fillies.
KTB Selection Nour
This is the narrative read of the 3:42 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Nour has the highest KTB Fit Score at 53/100.
Has any horse in the field won a race already?
Yes, Bear Lee won a modest 5f maiden on her second start.
Which runner has course form at York?
Gladys Pugh has course form, having finished fifth here on debut.
Who has the strongest jockey record at York among the principals?
James Doyle has a 15% strike rate at York from 313 rides with an A/E of 1.06.
What is the going record for the selection Nour?
Nour is placed once from one run on good to firm.
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