3:44 Navan
This 1m20y Curragh To Curragh Charity Cycle This Saturday Handicap (Div I) at Navan on good to firm ground brings together a field of 14 modest performers in a race where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly clustered between 62 and 33. The top five in the KTB Fit order are headed by Good Man Jack on 62, with Bill Silvers, Gloriously Glam, Bundle Of Interest and Marambo completing the principals on marks from 58 down to 53. Overall the numbers paint a picture of limited ability across the board, with many runners unproven on the surface and several making their first or only appearance at the track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence and little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. In A Hurry is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to take up that role from the widest draw, while the vast majority of the runners are held-up types who will be producing their efforts late. Bundle Of Interest is the sole mid-division runner. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate terms and hold on, or if any of the patient runners can close the gap on this good to firm surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Good Man Jack KTB Selection62/100Modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was well beaten on his only visit here.
- 2Bill Silvers58/100Modest performer who has failed to win in 20 starts and showed little spark on his two runs this year.
- 3Gloriously Glam56/100Modest performer who has won once from two runs at Navan and also has two wins from eleven starts at this trip.
- 4Bundle Of Interest53/100Modest performer who won once over course and distance but has been well held in three starts this season.
- 5Marambo53/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this year after a string of placed efforts last season.
- 6Alto Sax52/100Limited performer who has won once over today's trip from 14 attempts but has been inconsistent lately with a string of moderate efforts.
- 7Minaun View52/100Modest performer with a solid recent record that includes three wins at today's trip from nine attempts.
- 8Kc Bear47/100Modest performer who has been consistent without progressing much, finishing second twice and eighth last time over 7f.
- 9Tofino46/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and showed little spark when seventh of 14 over this trip here last time.
- 10Go Out45/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 11In A Hurry44/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning.
- 12Nephin Mountain40/100Limited performer who has been in and out this year and showed nothing special when last seen.
- 13Lohengrin35/100Limited performer who has been out of form for a long time and finished well beaten on his only previous run here.
- 14Cordouan33/100Cordouan is a limited performer whose recent form of 88-090 offers little encouragement.
The contenders
Good Man Jack KTB Fit 62/100
Good Man Jack is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was well beaten on his only visit here. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Navan from 55 runs while the jockey is operating at 9% from 103 rides. Trip looks about right but the small sample on this ground leaves suitability unknown. Held up in his races, he usually produces his effort late though that assessment is based on limited evidence with low confidence. As the KTB Selection he rates the most interesting of these on a 62 Fit score despite his modest profile.
Bill Silvers KTB Fit 58/100
Bill Silvers is a modest performer who has failed to win in 20 starts and showed little spark on his two runs this year. He is unproven on good to firm and has been beaten nine times at this trip without getting his head in front. The trainer's modest 5 percent strike rate at Navan is based on a decent sample while the claiming jockey has too few rides here to judge. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he arrives with a KTB Fit of 58 and must improve on recent efforts if he is to play a part.
Gloriously Glam KTB Fit 56/100
Gloriously Glam is a modest performer who has won once from two runs at Navan and also has two wins from eleven starts at this trip. She steps up from 7f today which asks a fresh question while she remains unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer records a 4% strike rate here from 52 runs and the jockey is operating at 12% from 181 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she brings a course win to the table on a KTB Fit of 56 and could be suited by the step back up in distance if the ground proves no barrier.
Bundle Of Interest KTB Fit 53/100
Bundle Of Interest is a modest performer who won once over course and distance but has been well held in three starts this season. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Navan from a big sample and the 5lb claimer is operating at a similar level here. Only one run on good to firm ground so that side remains unproven. Typically settling in midfield with medium confidence, he has a KTB Fit of 53 and his prior success at this track and trip makes him one to consider if he can bounce back.
Marambo KTB Fit 53/100
Marambo is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this year after a string of placed efforts last season. Trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from 60 runs but the jockey is operating at just 4% from 115 rides here. Trip looks fine on the balance of his races though the going remains an unknown with only five career starts behind him. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he carries a KTB Fit of 53 and needs to rediscover last season's form to figure.
The rest of the field
Alto SaxKTB Fit 52/100
Alto Sax is a limited performer who has won once over today's trip from 14 attempts but has been inconsistent lately with a string of moderate efforts. He makes his first start at Navan where the yard's record is modest at 6% from 141 runs while the claiming jockey has a fair 14% strike rate from a small sample of seven rides. Unproven on good to firm ground adds another unknown and he is held up with high confidence.
Minaun ViewKTB Fit 52/100
Minaun View is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes three wins at today's trip from nine attempts. He makes his first start at Navan and has never raced on good to firm, so both the track and ground are unknowns. Trainer holds a 5% strike rate from 308 runs here while the jockey is 4% from 26 rides. Usually held up with medium confidence.
Kc BearKTB Fit 47/100
Kc Bear is a modest performer who has been consistent without progressing much, finishing second twice and eighth last time over 7f. He steps up to 1m today having been placed both starts at the trip, though he remains unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer has a 13% strike rate from 1803 runs at Navan while jockey records 14% from 567 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence.
TofinoKTB Fit 46/100
Tofino is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and showed little spark when seventh of 14 over this trip here last time. He has won at today's distance but his record on good to firm is limited to a single run and the wide draw is another negative. Trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates at Navan. Usually held up with high confidence.
Go OutKTB Fit 45/100
Go Out is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. Placed once at this trip from three attempts but is unproven on good to firm ground and makes a first appearance at Navan. Trainer has a 3% strike rate from 30 runs here while the jockey is 7% from 14 rides. Usually held up with high confidence.
In A HurryKTB Fit 44/100
In A Hurry is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having placed without winning at the trip in the past, while he has also shown he can be competitive on good to firm ground. Trainer's poor record at Navan is a concern. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence and is the likely lone leader.
Nephin MountainKTB Fit 40/100
Nephin Mountain is a limited performer who has been in and out this year and showed nothing special when last seen. He drops back to 1m today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at the trip and has no joy on good to firm ground from two starts. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Navan while the jockey records a 7% rate at the track. Usually held up with high confidence.
LohengrinKTB Fit 35/100
Lohengrin is a limited performer who has been out of form for a long time and finished well beaten on his only previous run here. He has shown minor placed form at this trip but has failed to win or place in four runs on good to firm ground. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 6% strike rate at Navan. Usually held up with high confidence.
CordouanKTB Fit 33/100
Cordouan is a limited performer whose recent form of 88-090 offers little encouragement. He has won on good to firm ground and at today's trip, though the step up from 7f still asks a fresh question. The yard's small Navan sample prevents firm conclusions while the jockey's modest 6% strike rate from 185 rides here adds no real confidence. Usually held up with high confidence.
KTB verdict
Good Man Jack is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings on 62 despite a modest record that includes four unconvincing starts and a poor run here. The yard's solid Navan strike rate and the trip being about right give him the call in a race full of similar types with plenty of unknowns on ground and course. The uncontested lead should make it a test for those coming from off the pace. Main dangers are Gloriously Glam with her course record, Bundle Of Interest thanks to his prior course-and-distance success, and Marambo if he can recapture last season's placed form. Bill Silvers and the remainder of the field face stiff tasks on the balance of their KTB profiles.
KTB Selection Good Man Jack
This is the narrative read of the 3:44 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
In A Hurry, as the only front-runner in the field and with a run-style that tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the field are unproven on good to firm ground?
Ten runners have no runs on good to firm and are therefore unproven on the surface.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Navan?
Marambo's trainer has a 13% strike rate at Navan from 60 runs.
Who has won both at this course and at this trip?
Bundle Of Interest, who won once over course and distance.
Which jockey has the strongest Navan record in the race?
The jockey on Bill Silvers has a 100% strike rate at Navan from one ride.
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