3:45 Catterick
This Class 6 handicap over the extended five furlongs at Catterick brings together a field of eight limited performers on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Lucius Aurelius heading the numbers on 64, while the next three are separated by just four points. With several hold-up types in the line-up and a strong pace anticipated, the race is set up to reward patience and a well-timed run from off the speed.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners. Barmyblade is expected to take them along from stall eight, with Howzak and Enjoy The Night also likely to be prominent or making the running. This should set up a test that could see the pace collapse late, playing into the hands of the numerous hold-up horses drawn across the field. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can sustain the gallop or if the race will fall into the lap of a closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lucius Aurelius KTB Selection64/100Limited horse who has won once in six runs at Catterick and holds a solid placed record on good ground.
- 2Call Glory59/100Call Glory is a limited performer who has been running consistently enough in recent months without winning, finishing placed in three of his last six starts.
- 3Captain Cess59/100Limited performer who has shown some consistency lately with a placed effort at this trip from four attempts.
- 4Miss Rainbow55/100Miss Rainbow is a limited handicapper who has run to form on her last three starts and won once from eight runs at Catterick.
- 5Barmyblade55/100Barmyblade is a limited horse who has shown enough at this level to win four times this year, including two victories over Catterick's 5f.
- 6Battenburg Belle47/100Battenburg Belle is a limited filly who has shown consistent form this year and won over this trip.
- 7Howzak44/100Limited performer who has won four times at this trip but looks modest on recent evidence and has failed to place in his last four starts.
- 8Enjoy The Night44/100Limited performer who has shown only modest form in six runs.
The contenders
Lucius Aurelius KTB Fit 64/100
Lucius Aurelius is a limited performer who has won once from six runs at Catterick and holds a solid placed record on good ground. He steps up in trip today having been placed three times from six starts at this distance without winning, which poses a fresh question. Kevin Ryan operates with a 14% strike rate at the track from 532 runs while Jack Nicholls, who boasts a 33% strike rate at Catterick from 18 rides, takes the mount. The trainer and jockey combination has produced a 3/15 record with an A/E of 1.57 and +£5.75 LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 7 in a race where the strong pace is likely to favour closers.
Call Glory KTB Fit 59/100
Call Glory is a limited performer who has been running consistently enough in recent months without winning, finishing placed in three of his last six starts. He drops back to 5f today having won at the trip earlier in his career though his last run over 7f suggests stamina is not an issue. Ian Williams has a 17% strike rate at Catterick from 83 runs and the 5yo makes his first appearance here. Tom Kiely-Marshall, with a 19% strike rate at the track from 16 rides, is in the saddle. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 6 and should be suited by the anticipated strong pace.
Captain Cess KTB Fit 59/100
Captain Cess is a limited performer who has shown some consistency lately with a placed effort at this trip from four attempts. He drops back from 7f having been competitive on good ground without winning. Declan Carroll holds an 11% strike rate at Catterick from 323 runs and pairs with Zak Wheatley who has a 14% strike rate at the track from 73 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 71/704 record with an A/E of 0.94. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 2 and looks likely to benefit if the strong pace collapses late.
Miss Rainbow KTB Fit 55/100
Miss Rainbow is a limited handicapper who has run to form on her last three starts and won once from eight runs at Catterick. She has shown she handles good ground with four wins from eleven starts and has also won at today's trip. First-time headgear is now tried. Tracy Waggott operates at a 6% strike rate here from 310 runs while Connor Beasley has a 14% strike rate at Catterick from 308 rides. The yard and rider combination shows a 6/112 record with an A/E of 0.46. Usually held up though with medium confidence in that assessment, she is drawn in stall 1 and could be ideally placed if the leaders go hard.
The rest of the field
BarmybladeKTB Fit 55/100
Barmyblade is a limited horse who has shown enough at this level to win four times this year, including two victories over Catterick's 5f. He has won on good ground and at today's trip, and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition given his recent inconsistency. Tim Easterby has a 12% strike rate at Catterick from 1917 runs while Sean Kirrane has a 17% strike rate from 115 rides at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is drawn in stall 8 and is likely to set the strong pace.
Battenburg BelleKTB Fit 47/100
Battenburg Belle is a limited filly who has shown consistent form this year and won over this trip. She has already won here from two runs at Catterick and is placed on good ground, so conditions look suitable enough. Rebecca Menzies has a 15% strike rate from 254 runs at the track while Jason Hart rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall 3.
HowzakKTB Fit 44/100
Howzak is a limited performer who has won four times at this trip but looks modest on recent evidence and has failed to place in his last four starts. Only one run at Catterick resulted in a midfield finish and Liam Bailey has a 2% strike rate from 95 runs at the track. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground in the past. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is drawn in stall 4.
Enjoy The NightKTB Fit 44/100
Enjoy The Night is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in six runs. Dropping back from 7½f to an untried 5f asks a fresh question while the Catterick fifth on his most recent start adds a little course familiarity. Seb Spencer holds a 13% strike rate here from 53 runs. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with limited evidence, he is drawn in stall 5.
KTB verdict
Lucius Aurelius is the KTB Selection. A limited performer with a Catterick win to his name and a solid record on good ground, he steps up in trip having shown placed form at this distance and should be ideally suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold. Kevin Ryan and Jack Nicholls team up with positive figures at the track. His main dangers are the other hold-up types Call Glory and Captain Cess, both of whom have shown recent consistency, while Miss Rainbow cannot be ruled out with the first-time headgear and a good draw. Barmyblade is the one likely to take them along and could prove hard to peg back if the pace does not fully collapse.
KTB Selection Lucius Aurelius
This is the narrative read of the 3:45 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are expected to set the early pace?
Barmyblade tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, Howzak tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, and Enjoy The Night tends to make the running or race on the pace with limited evidence.
How many of the field are habitual hold-up performers?
Five runners are usually held up and produce their effort late: Lucius Aurelius, Call Glory, Captain Cess, Miss Rainbow and Battenburg Belle.
Which horse is trying headgear for the first time?
Miss Rainbow is fitted with first-time headgear and Barmyblade is also fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horses have previous winning form at Catterick?
Lucius Aurelius has won here from six runs, Miss Rainbow has won here from eight runs, Barmyblade has won here from four runs, and Battenburg Belle has won here from two runs.
Who has the strongest trainer and jockey combination record at the track according to the A/E figures?
Jack Nicholls has a 33% strike rate at Catterick with an A/E of 1.98 from 18 rides, while the Kevin Ryan and Jack Nicholls combination shows an A/E of 1.57.
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