3:48 Yarmouth
This Class 6 handicap over 6f at Yarmouth on good to soft ground brings together a field of ten where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are separated by just six points, underlining a competitive affair in which recent consistency and course knowledge could prove decisive. With the pace shape rated muddling and tactical and no obvious front-runner, those capable of racing close to the speed or timing a late run effectively hold the key.
How the race shapes up
The race is expected to unfold in a muddling, tactical manner with no confirmed front-runner to force the pace. Several runners, including Elvetham and Albert Cee, tend to race prominently and should be able to take up handy positions from their middle to low draws. The key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint for the line or if those held up, such as the selection Kyoto and Skellig Isle, can pick their way through to land a telling blow late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Skellig Isle59/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without progressing.
- 2Kyoto KTB Selection59/100Kyoto shaped with some encouragement when fourth on his handicap debut at Southwell last month after being held up from a wide draw.
- 3Big Bard57/100Big Bard is a fair handicapper who has won nine times over this trip from 32 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having won at Lingfield in January.
- 4Elvetham57/100Modest performer who arrives in solid nick with three straight placings and an RPR of 74.
- 5Albert Cee53/100Albert Cee is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last four starts.
- 6Mart53/100Mart is a fair handicapper who has won five times over this trip but has looked in need of the run on both starts this year.
- 7Court Drive53/100Fair performer who has run twice here without placing and is 0-23 at this trip despite two wins at the distance overall.
- 8Court Of Session51/100Fair performer who has run well here without winning, finishing third twice from four starts at Yarmouth.
- 9Alafdhal49/100Alafdhal is a modest performer who has dropped to a more realistic level but arrives in ordinary form after finishing midfield or worse on his last three starts…
- 10Silky Robin41/100Silky Robin is a modest performer who has shown a bit more spark of late with a win and a second in his last two starts over 5f.
The contenders
Skellig Isle KTB Fit 59/100
Skellig Isle is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without progressing. He has form at this trip but only one run on good to soft ground and a fifth here last time without threatening. The Philip McBride yard posts a 16% strike rate at Yarmouth from a big sample of 309 runs and the trainer and jockey combination shows a solid 13/77 record with an A/E of 1.02. Silvestre De Sousa adds strength in the saddle with a 19% strike rate at the track from 453 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race that may suit that style.
Kyoto KTB Fit 59/100
Kyoto shaped with some encouragement when fourth on his handicap debut at Southwell last month after being held up from a wide draw. He is a fair performer on his best RPR of 75 and has placed once at this trip from four starts. The Mike Murphy yard holds a 15% strike rate at Yarmouth from 82 runs while the trainer and jockey partnership records a healthy 7/37 with an A/E of 1.83. Rob Hornby is effective at the venue with a 16% strike rate from 50 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains unproven on good to soft ground on just four career starts but enters calculations as the KTB Selection.
Big Bard KTB Fit 57/100
Big Bard is a fair handicapper who has won nine times over this trip from 32 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having won at Lingfield in January. He has been below that level on his last two starts though and is 0-3 on good to soft ground. The Gary & Josh Moore yard has a modest 13% strike rate at Yarmouth from only eight runners and the trainer and jockey record stands at 3/43 with an A/E of 0.78. Jude Fernandes takes the ride and usually this 8-year-old is held up, producing his effort late. With an RPR of 75 he remains capable on his best day but recent form and ground question marks linger.
Elvetham KTB Fit 57/100
Elvetham is a modest performer who arrives in solid nick with three straight placings and an RPR of 74. He has won over today's 6f trip but is unproven on good to soft ground and makes his first start at Yarmouth. The Conrad Allen stable shows a 10% strike rate at the track from a big sample of 280 runs while the trainer and jockey combination posts 9/40 with an A/E of 1.76. Jack Gilligan is in the saddle. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, his prominent run-style could be an asset in a muddling, tactical contest where a handy position may count for plenty.
Albert Cee KTB Fit 53/100
Albert Cee is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last four starts. He has winning form on good to soft ground and at this trip though he was well held on his only previous run here. The P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck yard has a modest 8% strike rate at Yarmouth from 37 runs and the trainer and jockey record reads 3/12 with an A/E of 1.75. Liam Wright claims 5lb. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with high confidence in that assessment, his prominent style should see him to the fore early. An RPR of 76 underlines that he is one of the higher-rated in the field on his best efforts.
The rest of the field
MartKTB Fit 53/100
Mart is a fair handicapper who has won five times over this trip but has looked in need of the run on both starts this year. He has never won or placed in three runs on good to soft ground and his two efforts here produced no better than sixth, though the yard’s solid 17% strike rate at Yarmouth offers some hope he can bounce back.
Court DriveKTB Fit 53/100
Court Drive is a fair performer who has run twice here without placing and is 0-23 at this trip despite two wins at the distance overall. Recent efforts have been ordinary and the yard's modest 10% strike-rate at Yarmouth adds little encouragement, though he is placed once from four starts on good to soft so the ground should be fine.
Court Of SessionKTB Fit 51/100
Court Of Session is a fair performer who has run well here without winning, finishing third twice from four starts at Yarmouth. He has won over today's trip but showed little on his only previous good-to-soft run and the recent form is mixed, while the trainer's 9% strike rate from 451 runs at the track offers no particular edge.
AlafdhalKTB Fit 49/100
Alafdhal is a modest performer who has dropped to a more realistic level but arrives in ordinary form after finishing midfield or worse on his last three starts. He has won at this trip in the past and has shown some competitiveness on good to soft ground, yet his record at Yarmouth reads a modest eighth on his only visit.
Silky RobinKTB Fit 41/100
Silky Robin is a modest performer who has shown a bit more spark of late with a win and a second in his last two starts over 5f. He steps up to 6f today having won at the trip in the past though his sole run on good to soft ground brought no reward, and the trainer has only had four runners at Yarmouth so that adds another unknown to a horse making his first visit here.
KTB verdict
The race looks set to be decided by those who can adapt best to the muddling, tactical pace. Kyoto shaped with encouragement on his handicap debut and boasts a strong trainer and jockey record at Yarmouth, making him the KTB Selection. He can build on that promise from a favourable draw if the ground proves suitable. The main dangers are Elvetham, who arrives in good heart with a handy run-style, and Albert Cee, who has solid recent form and proven ability on good to soft. Skellig Isle and Big Bard are others who cannot be ruled out on their best efforts.
KTB Selection Kyoto
This is the narrative read of the 3:48 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer and jockey combination record at Yarmouth?
Kyoto, with the trainer recording a 15% strike rate from 82 runs and the jockey a 16% strike rate from 50 rides, plus the partnership showing 7/37 with an A/E of 1.83.
How many horses are unproven on good to soft ground?
Three: Kyoto with no runs on the surface, Elvetham with no runs on good to soft, and Silky Robin who has had one run on it without reward.
Which runners are likely to race prominently given the muddling pace shape?
Elvetham and Albert Cee are both prominent runners who usually race handily on or close to the lead, while Alafdhal also tends to race prominently.
Which horse has the most placed form at Yarmouth without winning?
Court Of Session, who has finished third twice from four starts at the track.
Who has the best recent winning record on good to soft ground?
Albert Cee, with two wins from six runs on good to soft and two placed efforts.
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