3:54 Ripon
This Class 3 handicap over six furlongs at Ripon features a compact field of seven with every runner dropping in class except Grant Wood. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, topped by Dark Cloud Rising on 66, with the next three principals all sitting in the mid-50s, pointing to a competitive but readable race on good ground. The selection comes out clearly ahead on the numbers thanks to its course record, trip prowess and the first-time headgear now applied.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader and confidence in the forecast is only medium, so a steadily-run, tactical contest is the most likely outcome. With five of the seven runners usually held up and producing their effort late, the race is set to be decided from mid-division or further back rather than from the front. The key question is which of the hold-up brigade can time their run best as the tempo lifts inside the final two furlongs on a track where being handy often pays.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dark Cloud Rising KTB Selection66/100Useful performer who won here on his only previous visit to Ripon and has scored four times at this trip.
- 2Commanche Falls56/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 3Saint Lawrence55/100Saint Lawrence is a fair 8-year-old with a solid career behind him yet has been out of form for most of this season, his best recent effort a modest second at Y…
- 4Lord Roxby55/100Lord Roxby is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, with his recent form showing a mix of a win earlier this year and several placed…
- 5Grant Wood51/100Grant Wood is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from five runs.
- 6Rousing Encore49/100Rousing Encore is a fair performer who has been largely consistent without winning this year.
- 7Boston Dan49/100Boston Dan is a fair 3-year-old who has been placed three times at this trip and showed his best effort here when second on his only visit to Ripon.
The contenders
Dark Cloud Rising KTB Fit 66/100
Dark Cloud Rising is a useful performer who has won here on his only previous visit to Ripon and has scored four times at this trip. He has shown enough on good ground to suggest conditions will suit and the yard's solid record at the track adds confidence. First-time headgear is now reached for after a mixed recent run of form. The David O'Meara and Daniel Tudhope combination brings a 15% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.99 for the trainer and 21% strike rate with an A/E of 1.04 for the jockey. Dropping in class from a draw of 6, the 4-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late. Recent form figures read 090U13.
Commanche Falls KTB Fit 56/100
Commanche Falls is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is patchy with a string of lesser efforts mixed in with two placed runs, though the first-time headgear could sharpen him up. Trainer Michael Dods has a solid 11% strike rate at Ripon while the horse's three wins from 19 on good ground show he handles the conditions. The 9-year-old is dropping in class from draw 1 and is usually held up, producing its effort late. Jockey Connor Beasley has a 10% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.75. Recent form figures read -22070.
Saint Lawrence KTB Fit 55/100
Saint Lawrence is a fair 8-year-old with a solid career behind him yet has been out of form for most of this season, his best recent effort a modest second at York. He has won over today's trip though only once from 30 attempts and holds a modest record on good ground. Kevin Ryan's 11% strike rate at Ripon is respectable while the first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse making his debut at the track. The combination with Shane Gray carries an 11% trainer strike rate at the venue and a 10% jockey strike rate. Dropping in class from draw 4, he is usually held up and produces its effort late. Recent form figures read 09-205.
Lord Roxby KTB Fit 55/100
Lord Roxby is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, with his recent form showing a mix of a win earlier this year and several placed efforts. He has course experience here at Ripon where he finished fourth on his only run, and he acts on good ground having won twice from eight starts on it. He has won at this trip from 15 attempts though his overall strike rate remains modest. Nigel Tinkler has a 7% strike rate at the track while jockey Alex Jary, claiming 3lb, has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 1.35 from limited rides at Ripon. Usually held up from draw 2, recent form figures read 901452.
The rest of the field
Grant WoodKTB Fit 51/100
Grant Wood is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from five runs. He has a solid course record and the yard's 10% strike-rate at Ripon is in line with expectations. Recent form has been patchy though and he is 0 from 5 on his last visits here. Stepping up in class, the 7-year-old is usually held up.
Rousing EncoreKTB Fit 49/100
Rousing Encore is a fair performer who has been largely consistent without winning this year. He has solid form at this trip with five wins from 46 starts and has handled good ground well enough over his career. The Ripon record is poor from a single run and the recent form lacks spark. Dropping in class, the 6-year-old is usually held up.
Boston DanKTB Fit 49/100
Boston Dan is a fair 3-year-old who has been placed three times at this trip and showed his best effort here when second on his only visit to Ripon. He has been out of form on his last four starts and remains a maiden after 14 runs. The Tim Easterby yard has a modest 10% strike-rate at the track from a huge sample while Sean Kirrane has no established record here. Usually held up from the widest draw.
KTB verdict
Dark Cloud Rising stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer with a perfect record at Ripon from one visit and four wins at the trip, he has shown enough on good ground and now tries first-time headgear after a mixed spell. The yard and jockey's healthy figures at the track add further layers of confidence in a steadily-run race where his late kick should be well suited. Main dangers are headed by Commanche Falls, who brings course-and-distance winning form and the same headgear ploy, while Saint Lawrence and Lord Roxby cannot be dismissed in a race where several hold-up types are likely to be queuing up for a run.
KTB Selection Dark Cloud Rising
This is the narrative read of the 3:54 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Ripon over this trip?
Dark Cloud Rising has won here on his only previous visit to Ripon and has scored four times at this trip.
How many of the runners are trying first-time headgear?
Dark Cloud Rising, Commanche Falls and Saint Lawrence are all trying first-time headgear.
What is the trainer strike rate at Ripon for the handler of the selection?
David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.99 from 781 runs.
Which runner is stepping up in class?
Grant Wood is the only horse stepping up in class.
How many of the seven runners are usually held up?
Five of the seven runners are usually held up and produce their effort late.
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