3:55 Downpatrick
The 3:55 at Downpatrick is a Rated Novice Hurdle over 2m1f165y on good ground, featuring a field of ten. KTB's Fit Scores suggest a competitive heat led by Lumiere Du Large on 67, with a cluster of principals from 59 down to 51 underlining that several hold realistic claims on their best figures. The race brings together horses with mixed recent form, some stepping up or dropping in trip, and a few making their first visit to the track.
How the race shapes up
With several runners whose run-styles lean prominent or front-running, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early on before quickening. Lumiere Du Large and Butch Coolidge can be forward, while Sea Of Doubt and others may track the pace. The key question is whether those dropping back in trip, such as Butch Coolidge, can find the necessary speed, or whether the stronger stayers will be advantaged as the race develops.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lumiere Du Large KTB Selection67/100Smart performer who arrives in solid form having finished second on his last two starts.
- 2Houndsworth59/100Houndsworth is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but arrives with a mixed recent record of 88017.
- 3Butch Coolidge57/100Butch Coolidge showed useful form when winning over 2m6f here last time and is now dropping back in trip.
- 4Maxwell Smart53/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form without winning often.
- 5Blue Moon Boy51/100Useful performer who has shown his best form when placed over this trip on good ground.
- 6Fedneys Park48/100Useful performer who has shown ability at this trip without winning.
- 7Sea Of Doubt48/100Sea Of Doubt is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from five runs here.
- 8Beat The Devil47/100Beat The Devil has shown very little in 18 starts and was pulled up on his most recent outing.
- 9Pure Logic41/100Pure Logic is a useful performer who has shown steady placed form at this trip without winning.
- 10Annie's Angel40/100Useful performer who arrives in decent form having finished second and sixth in her last two starts.
The contenders
Lumiere Du Large KTB Fit 67/100
Lumiere Du Large is a smart performer who arrives in solid form having finished second on his last two starts. He drops back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance previously. The trainer has a 19% strike rate at Downpatrick from 913 runs while the jockey is operating above expectations at the track with an 18% strike rate and A/E 1.43 from 34 rides. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and remains competitive at this level. His recent form of 458-23 underlines his consistency and he is taken to put his best foot forward in a race where his trainer and jockey combination hold the aces.
Houndsworth KTB Fit 59/100
Houndsworth is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but arrives with a mixed recent record of 88017-. He has no experience at Downpatrick and is unproven on good ground from just two runs, while today also marks a step up in trip from his usual 2m. The trainer holds a 13% strike rate here from 236 runs and the jockey an 11% strike rate from 120 rides. His ability cannot be dismissed on his better days yet the combination of new trip, unproven surface and first run at the track leaves him with questions to answer.
Butch Coolidge KTB Fit 57/100
Butch Coolidge showed useful form when winning over 2m6f here last time and is now dropping back in trip. He has a solid record on good ground with one win from three starts and the jockey’s 13 per cent strike rate from eight rides at Downpatrick offers some encouragement. The yard’s 0-19 record at the track is a clear negative despite the recent success. Recent form of 9778-1 shows he can produce his best when it matters and his course win last time adds to his appeal in a race where trip and ground look suitable.
Maxwell Smart KTB Fit 53/100
Maxwell Smart is a useful performer who has shown consistent form without winning often. He steps up in trip today having last run over 1m5f and is placed once from two starts at this distance. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 192 runs at Downpatrick while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 18 rides here. His form of /34U8- indicates he can be competitive when on song yet the combination of new trip and the jockey’s record at the track add layers of uncertainty.
Blue Moon Boy KTB Fit 51/100
Blue Moon Boy is a useful performer who has shown his best form when placed over this trip on good ground. He steps up from 2m for a yard that has a strong 38% strike rate here from 13 runs yet the 7lb claimer is still seeking his first winner from eight rides at the track. This is his first run at Downpatrick. Recent form of 897-20 shows flashes of ability on the right day and his placed effort on good ground at this trip suggests he can feature if the yard’s excellent local record comes to the fore.
The rest of the field
Fedneys ParkKTB Fit 48/100
Fedneys Park is a useful performer who has shown ability at this trip without winning. Recent form has been patchy and the yard's runners often need a run or two to hit peak fitness after a break. The trainer holds a solid 16% strike rate here while the jockey's record is respectable without being prolific.
Sea Of DoubtKTB Fit 48/100
Sea Of Doubt is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from five runs here. He showed a bit of spark when landing a race on good ground last time though his overall strike rate is modest and the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 17 rides at Downpatrick. The yard's 10% strike rate from 70 runs at the course adds a note of caution.
Beat The DevilKTB Fit 47/100
Beat The Devil has shown very little in 18 starts and was pulled up on his most recent outing. He steps up markedly in trip today while wearing headgear for the first time, both of which pose fresh questions. The jockey’s modest 7% strike rate at Downpatrick adds no encouragement.
Pure LogicKTB Fit 41/100
Pure Logic is a useful performer who has shown steady placed form at this trip without winning. He steps up in trip again today having been placed twice from five starts at this distance and has gone well on good ground in the past. The trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Downpatrick from a big sample and the jockey's 0-from-22 record here add to the negatives on a first run at the track.
Annie's AngelKTB Fit 40/100
Annie's Angel is a useful performer who arrives in decent form having finished second and sixth in her last two starts. The trainer has a modest 6% strike-rate from 35 runs at Downpatrick while the 7lb claimer has had too few rides here to judge. She steps up markedly in trip today on ground she has barely tried.
KTB verdict
Lumiere Du Large stands out as the KTB Selection. He arrives in solid form with two seconds to his name, drops back to a trip where he has been placed before, and benefits from a trainer with a 19% strike rate at Downpatrick and a jockey operating above expectations at the track. His consistency and the strength of the yard-jockey combination make him the one to beat. The main dangers are Butch Coolidge, who won over further here last time and drops back in trip with a good record on good ground, and Houndsworth, whose useful level on the figures cannot be ignored despite the unknowns of trip and surface.
KTB Selection Lumiere Du Large
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Downpatrick?
Blue Moon Boy's trainer has a 38% strike rate at Downpatrick from 13 runs.
Has any horse in the field won at this course and distance before?
Sea Of Doubt has won over this trip and at this track from five runs here.
Which runner is dropping back in trip after a recent win over further?
Butch Coolidge showed useful form when winning over 2m6f here last time and is now dropping back in trip.
Who is wearing first-time headgear in this race?
Beat The Devil is wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip on ground it has barely tried?
Annie's Angel steps up markedly in trip today on ground she has barely tried.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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