3:55 Lingfield (AW)
This Class 5 handicap over 7f at Lingfield's all-weather track brings together a field of 14 modest performers on standard ground. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with no standout standout but a clear preference shown for Dancing Rinca at 61. Recent form across the runners is largely ordinary, and several arrive with first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement. The race looks competitive on paper though the strong pace anticipated could create late opportunities.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape rated as strong with high confidence, the early fractions are likely to be brisk. Double Time and Sant Alessio both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure a genuine test and increase the chance of the leaders coming back to the field late. That shape would play to the strengths of the numerous hold-up types, several of whom are drawn towards the outer stalls. The key question is whether the pace collapses sufficiently for the patient riders to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dancing Rinca KTB Selection61/100Modest performer who has shown very little in two starts this year after a lengthy break.
- 2The Bitter Moose58/100Modest performer who has won once from three runs at this track and twice from six on standard going.
- 3Starlight Sami58/100Modest performer who has placed both starts at this track without winning.
- 4Red Hat Eagle57/100Modest performer who has won once from six runs here and is placed on standard ground.
- 5Paranjape55/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning since landing a 6f nursery on standard ground last summer.
- 6Gunfighter54/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed little at this track on his only previous run.
- 7Double Time52/100Modest performer whose recent efforts have been poor.
- 8Bold Suitor52/100Modest performer who has won once in four runs at this track and shows a solid record on standard ground with six wins from 24 starts.
- 9Powder Monkey51/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his last two starts.
- 10State Of Madness49/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough on the AW this year without winning.
- 11Yachtsman49/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track and on standard ground without winning.
- 12Sant Alessio48/100Modest performer whose recent form has been poor.
- 13Split Elevens47/100Modest performer who has won three times at this track from nine starts and holds a solid record on standard ground with eight wins from 33 runs.
- 14Dontspoilasale42/100Modest performer who has been knocking around this level for a long time without winning.
The contenders
Dancing Rinca KTB Fit 61/100
Dancing Rinca is a modest performer who has shown very little in two starts this year after a lengthy break. First-time headgear is now fitted and the step up to 7f asks a fresh question. The trainer continues in solid form at this track with a 22% strike rate and an A/E of 1.45 from 27 runs, while the jockey's 8% strike rate at Lingfield AW with an A/E of 0.81 from 986 rides reflects the volume of rides rather than any particular weakness. Settling typically in midfield, the seven-year-old has no previous experience of standard ground and no course form on record. Drawn in stall one, he is the KTB selection and could be suited by the anticipated strong pace.
The Bitter Moose KTB Fit 58/100
The Bitter Moose is a modest performer who has won once from three runs at this track and twice from six on standard going. He has also won at today's trip and arrives in reasonable form having placed on his last two starts. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard's modest 10% strike rate here from 544 runs offers no real encouragement. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the five-year-old is drawn in stall three. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 13% strike rate from 349 runs with an A/E of 1.08, and he holds a course win to his name.
Starlight Sami KTB Fit 58/100
Starlight Sami is a modest performer who has placed both starts at this track without winning. He drops back to 7f today having won at the trip earlier in his career though his latest efforts over 1m were poor. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Lingfield AW, the yard at 10% with an A/E of 0.87 from 337 runs and the rider at 12% with an A/E of 1.06 from 164 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the three-year-old has been placed on both his runs on standard ground without winning. He has course placings of third and second from two visits.
Red Hat Eagle KTB Fit 57/100
Red Hat Eagle is a modest performer who has won once from six runs here and is placed on standard ground. Recent form has been ordinary and he has failed to win in seven attempts at this trip. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Lingfield AW with an A/E of 0.99 from 587 runs. Usually held up with medium confidence, the six-year-old drops in class having won here previously. The trainer and jockey record stands at 18% from 22 runs with an A/E of 0.97.
Paranjape KTB Fit 55/100
Paranjape is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning since landing a 6f nursery on standard ground last summer. He drops back from 1m to a trip he has tried twice without success and now tries headgear for the first time from a wide draw. The trainer has a solid 18% strike rate at Lingfield AW with an A/E of 1.11 from 221 runs while the 5lb claimer is also operating at a fair level here with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 0.91 from 25 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the three-year-old has one win from six on standard with three placings.
The rest of the field
GunfighterKTB Fit 54/100
Gunfighter is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed little at this track on his only previous run. He does have a solid record on standard going with three wins from seven and has won at today's trip. The trainer and jockey both have established but modest strike rates here.
Double TimeKTB Fit 52/100
Double Time is a modest performer whose recent efforts have been poor. He drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip before, while first-time headgear is now tried after 37 runs. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at this track.
Bold SuitorKTB Fit 52/100
Bold Suitor is a modest performer who has won once in four runs at this track and shows a solid record on standard ground with six wins from 24 starts. He has also won at this trip and arrives in reasonable form having posted a string of placed efforts earlier this year. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard holds a respectable record at Lingfield.
Powder MonkeyKTB Fit 51/100
Powder Monkey is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his last two starts. Stall two is a plus on the sharp Lingfield AW track and the yard's 16% strike rate here adds some confidence. The trip is an unknown for this lightly-raced colt and the small sample means the standard surface remains untested.
State Of MadnessKTB Fit 49/100
State Of Madness is a modest performer who has been consistent enough on the AW this year without winning. He has only one win from 13 starts on standard ground and just one placed effort from four runs at this trip. Trainer and jockey both sit on an 11% strike rate at Lingfield AW from large samples.
YachtsmanKTB Fit 49/100
Yachtsman is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track and on standard ground without winning. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous tries at the distance. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's modest record here adds little encouragement.
Sant AlessioKTB Fit 48/100
Sant Alessio is a modest performer whose recent form has been poor. He drops back to an untried 7f today after a string of runs at a mile and makes his first visit to Lingfield on standard ground where he already holds a win and two places from five attempts. The trainer is 0-5 here while the jockey has a solid 10% strike rate from over 400 rides at the track.
Split ElevensKTB Fit 47/100
Split Elevens is a modest performer who has won three times at this track from nine starts and holds a solid record on standard ground with eight wins from 33 runs. He has also won nine times at today's trip from 38 attempts and arrives in decent form having landed two of his last six starts. The trainer posts a 13% strike rate here from 503 runs while the jockey is operating at 9% from 602 rides.
DontspoilasaleKTB Fit 42/100
Dontspoilasale is a modest performer who has been knocking around this level for a long time without winning. He has placed at today's trip but is 0-7 on it and showed little spark on his only previous run here. The trainer's poor 3% strike-rate at the track adds to the negatives while the jockey's 9% record is more respectable.
KTB verdict
Dancing Rinca is the KTB selection. A modest performer who has shown very little in two starts this year after a lengthy break, he now tries first-time headgear and steps up to 7f. The trainer's solid record at Lingfield AW gives encouragement, and the strong pace should suit his typical midfield run-style. The main dangers are The Bitter Moose, who arrives in reasonable form with placed efforts and a course win to his name, and Starlight Sami, who has placed both times at the track and drops back to a trip he has won over.
KTB Selection Dancing Rinca
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Lingfield (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Double Time and Sant Alessio both tend to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Dancing Rinca, The Bitter Moose, Red Hat Eagle, Paranjape, Double Time, Bold Suitor and Yachtsman are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which runners have previous wins at Lingfield AW?
The Bitter Moose, Red Hat Eagle, Bold Suitor and Split Elevens have all won at the track.
Who has the strongest trainer record at Lingfield AW by strike rate?
Hayley Burton has a 22% strike rate at Lingfield AW from 27 runs with an A/E of 1.45.
Which horse has the most course wins at Lingfield?
Split Elevens has won three times at this track from nine starts.
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