4:00 Epsom
This Class 4 handicap over six furlongs at Epsom on good to firm ground features a compact field of eight three-year-olds and upwards. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive heat led by Sir Garfield on 67, with On Edge not far behind on 63, while the remainder sit in the low-to-mid 50s and below. With several runners in first-time headgear and a strong pace anticipated, the race should sort out those who handle the track and the tempo.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely given the presence of multiple habitual front-runners including Sir Garfield, Angel Gabriel and Kolkata Knight, all of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. This shape could see the leaders go hard early and potentially collapse in the later stages, handing an advantage to hold-up performers such as On Edge, Stellar Vision, Modern Times, Ruby's Profit and Sandscreendeliverd. The key question is whether any of the pace-forcers can ration their speed sufficiently around Epsom or if the race will fall into the lap of a patient closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sir Garfield KTB Selection67/100Fair horse who has won both starts at Epsom and is proven at this trip with four wins from 15 runs.
- 2On Edge63/100On Edge is a fair 8-year-old with a solid record on good to firm, recording four wins from 11 starts on the surface, and has won at today's trip from 22 attempt…
- 3Angel Gabriel57/100Angel Gabriel is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form, including a win at this trip from four attempts.
- 4Stellar Vision51/100Stellar Vision is a fair 3-year-old who has shown ability mixed with inconsistency, including a win and a placed effort from five runs.
- 5Kolkata Knight50/100Fair performer who has been patchy this year with a string of modest efforts after a promising second on debut.
- 6Modern Times49/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off the back of a win at this trip last time.
- 7Ruby's Profit48/100Ruby's Profit is a fair performer who has shown some course affinity with a placed effort at Epsom but arrives in ordinary form having failed to win in 21 start…
- 8Sandscreendeliverd41/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent runs without winning.
The contenders
Sir Garfield KTB Fit 67/100
Sir Garfield is a fair horse who has won both starts at Epsom and is proven at this trip with four wins from 15 runs. His recent form has been patchy but he did land a Class 4 here earlier in the season and the yard fires at a 29% strike rate on the track. First-time headgear is now fitted and the going looks suitable with a win and three places from eight runs on good to firm. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace he is likely to be prominent in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. The trainer and jockey both have solid Epsom records, with the yard posting an A/E of 1.79 and the rider an A/E of 1.18. Drawn in stall five, he is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of course knowledge and conditions.
On Edge KTB Fit 63/100
On Edge is a fair 8-year-old with a solid record on good to firm, recording four wins from 11 starts on the surface, and has won at today's trip from 22 attempts. Recent form of 218-13 shows consistent placed efforts though the career total of 32 runs suggests he is now exposed. First-time headgear is tried on his debut at Epsom where the trainer also has no recorded runners. A hold-up performer who usually produces his effort late, he is well suited to the anticipated strong pace that could cause the leaders to fold. The yard's overall strike rate stands at 19% with a positive A/E of 1.39, while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track. Stepping up in class, his proven ability on the surface remains his main asset.
Angel Gabriel KTB Fit 57/100
Angel Gabriel is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form, including a win at this trip from four attempts. He drops back from 7f today having looked stretched last time, while his draw in stall 1 could prove handy at Epsom. Trainer Ralph Beckett has an 18% strike rate from 241 runs at the track. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace he is set to be involved in the strong early tempo. The yard and jockey combination carries a 20% strike rate overall, though the colt is yet to show anything on good to firm. His placed efforts suggest he can be competitive if the trip and draw align.
Stellar Vision KTB Fit 51/100
Stellar Vision is a fair 3-year-old who has shown ability mixed with inconsistency, including a win and a placed effort from five runs. He drops back to 6f today after his latest effort over 7f, a trip he has tried once before without success, while first-time headgear is now applied. The yard holds a solid 14% strike rate from 201 runs at Epsom. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the likely strong pace that may see the front-runners come back. The trainer and jockey have combined for a 16% strike rate with a positive A/E of 1.14. His inconsistency is the main concern but the headgear and track record of the stable offer some hope.
The rest of the field
Kolkata KnightKTB Fit 50/100
Kolkata Knight is a fair performer who has been patchy this year with a string of modest efforts after a promising second on debut. Steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before and tries first-time headgear. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Epsom from 59 runs offers little encouragement, though he is a front-runner who will be prominent in the expected strong pace.
Modern TimesKTB Fit 49/100
Modern Times is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off the back of a win at this trip last time. First time headgear is now tried after four runs on good to firm ground without a win or place. The yard has a 10 percent strike rate from ten runs at Epsom while the jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track. A hold-up type, he will be looking to benefit if the leaders go too hard.
Ruby's ProfitKTB Fit 48/100
Ruby's Profit is a fair performer who has shown some course affinity with a placed effort at Epsom but arrives in ordinary form having failed to win in 21 starts. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs here and the horse is 0-4 on good to firm ground, so the surface is another negative. First-time headgear and a step back up to a trip where he has placed once add some unknowns, though he is another hold-up runner suited to a strong pace.
SandscreendeliverdKTB Fit 41/100
Sandscreendeliverd is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent runs without winning. Has run well over today's trip in the past but was well held on his only visit to Epsom and the yard's record here is poor. Steps up from 5f today which looks a fair question on what he has shown so far. Usually held up, he could pick up the pieces if the pace collapses.
KTB verdict
Sir Garfield stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already won twice at Epsom, including a Class 4 success earlier this season, and his proven course record, trip effectiveness and first-time headgear combine to make him the one to beat on good to firm ground. The yard's excellent 29% strike rate at the track further strengthens his claims. Main dangers are On Edge, who has a fine record on the surface and will relish the strong pace from the rear, and Angel Gabriel, who is well drawn and drops back to a more suitable trip. Stellar Vision cannot be entirely dismissed if the headgear sparks improvement.
KTB Selection Sir Garfield
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Sir Garfield, Angel Gabriel and Kolkata Knight are all front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Five runners are in first-time headgear: Sir Garfield, On Edge, Stellar Vision, Kolkata Knight and Modern Times, plus Ruby's Profit also in first-time headgear.
Which horses are suited by the likely strong pace shape?
Hold-up horses On Edge, Stellar Vision, Modern Times, Ruby's Profit and Sandscreendeliverd are suited by the strong pace that could collapse late.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Epsom in this race?
John & Sean Quinn have a 29% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.79.
Has Sir Garfield won at this course and distance before?
Sir Garfield has won here from one run at Epsom and is proven at this trip with four wins from 15 runs.
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