4:01 Bath
A small but competitive Class 6 staying handicap at Bath over 1m6f serves as a qualifier for the Bath Summer Stayers' Series. The five runners are all modest performers on official figures with little to choose between them on recent form, though the KTB Fit ratings give a clear order of preference headed by the three-year-old Campeona. Conditions are unproven for the entire field, adding an element of guesswork to how they will handle the ground and the step up in trip for several.
How the race shapes up
With only five runners the pace shape is expected to be even and relatively straightforward. Campeona from stall one is likely to track the early pace while Man Of The Sea and Endofastorm should be prominent from their middle and outer draws. The key question is whether the step up to an untested 1m6f will stretch the younger horses or allow the more experienced stayers to assert in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Campeona KTB Selection56/100Modest performer who showed some encouragement when second over 1m4f here last time.
- 2Man Of The Sea53/100Man Of The Sea is a limited performer who has won twice from eight runs at Bath and also has a solid record at today's trip.
- 3Endofastorm38/100Endofastorm is a limited performer who has been consistent at this level lately with a string of minor placings.
- 4Assured37/100Assured is a limited performer who has shown little in recent starts and finished well down the field in three previous runs at this track.
- 5Blue Siam34/100Blue Siam is a limited performer who has shown modest placed form at this trip but has been below that level in recent starts.
The contenders
Campeona KTB Fit 56/100
Campeona is a modest performer who showed some encouragement when second over 1m4f here last time. She steps up to an untried 1m6f today which asks a fresh question. Sir Mark Prescott has a solid 28% strike rate at Bath from 195 runs while Luke Morris is aboard. The trainer and jockey combination has produced a 464/2542 (18%) record with an A/E of 0.89. Her recent form figures read 877-2 and she comes from draw 1. Unproven on the ground having had no previous runs on it.
Man Of The Sea KTB Fit 53/100
Man Of The Sea is a limited performer who has won twice from eight runs at Bath and also has a solid record at today's trip. He drops back from 2m7f which looks a sensible move though the ground remains an unknown. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard's modest 8% strike rate at the track offers no particular edge. His recent form figures read 10-594 and he races from draw 3. The trainer and jockey have an 8% and 13% strike rate at Bath respectively.
Endofastorm KTB Fit 38/100
Endofastorm is a limited performer who has been consistent at this level lately with a string of minor placings. He has won twice from 17 runs at Bath and the yard's modest 4% strike-rate here from 109 runs suggests he will need to improve on that to score. Stepping up to 1m6f for the first time in a while asks a fresh question while he remains unproven on the ground. Recent form figures read 622542 and he is drawn in stall 5. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 3/64 (5%) record with an A/E of 0.69.
The rest of the field
AssuredKTB Fit 37/100
Assured is a limited performer who has shown little in recent starts and finished well down the field in three previous runs at this track. He is unproven on this ground having never raced on it and was beaten on his only attempt at this trip. First-time headgear is now applied but the yard has only a small sample of runners here so expectations remain low.
Blue SiamKTB Fit 34/100
Blue Siam is a limited performer who has shown modest placed form at this trip but has been below that level in recent starts. The drop back from 2m1f looks reasonable on paper and first-time headgear is now tried, yet the yard has failed to land a winner from six runs at Bath. This is the horse's first visit to the track and the going remains unproven.
KTB verdict
Campeona is the KTB Selection. She showed some encouragement when second over 1m4f here last time and represents a yard with a strong 28% strike rate at Bath. The step up to 1m6f poses a question but her youthful profile and the Prescott/Morris combination give her the edge. Man Of The Sea looks the main danger having won twice at the track and with the fitting of first-time headgear, while Endofastorm's recent consistency cannot be ignored despite the modest yard record at the venue.
KTB Selection Campeona
This is the narrative read of the 4:01 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Bath?
Campeona's trainer Sir Mark Prescott has a 28% strike rate at Bath from 195 runs.
Has any horse in the field won at Bath before?
Man Of The Sea has won twice from eight runs at Bath and Endofastorm has won twice from 17 runs at the track.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Man Of The Sea, Assured and Blue Siam are all fitted with first-time headgear.
What is the longest trip any of these horses has previously raced over?
Man Of The Sea has run over 2m7f while Blue Siam has contested 2m1f.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time in a while?
Endofastorm is stepping up to 1m6f for the first time in a while.
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