4:02 Hamilton
A competitive Class 5 handicap over 6f6y at Hamilton on good to soft ground sees eight modest performers line up. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 59 and 44, suggesting a race where course knowledge, recent form and an ability to handle the surface could prove decisive. Stirrup Cup heads the KTB figures on the back of a recent win, though several others have strong Hamilton records that cannot be ignored.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a truly-run contest with a mix of front-runners and prominent racers likely to contest the lead early. Maldevious from stall one and Doon The Glen drawn in two could push forward, while Stirrup Cup and Pop Star tend to race handily. The key question is whether the leaders will overdo things on this stiff track or if those coming from slightly further back, such as Iris Dancer, can pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Stirrup Cup KTB Selection59/100Stirrup Cup is a modest performer who arrives in decent form after a win last time and has won at this trip three times from 17 starts.
- 2Pop Star57/100Pop Star is a modest performer who has been out of form for most of this year but showed a bit more when winning a similar race at Musselburgh last time.
- 3Catalyse55/100Modest performer who won over this trip on his only previous visit to Hamilton.
- 4Annie Edson Taylor54/100Modest performer who won over this trip here last season and has placed on good to soft ground.
- 5Iris Dancer52/100Iris Dancer is a modest performer who knows this place well and has won eight times from 25 starts at Hamilton.
- 6Maldevious48/100Maldevious is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form at best this year, finishing no better than fourth in four starts.
- 7Emperor's Son46/100Emperor's Son is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par in his last two starts.
- 8Doon The Glen44/100Doon The Glen is a limited performer who has shown enough at this track to win once from four runs and also has a win and two places from three starts on good t…
The contenders
Stirrup Cup KTB Fit 59/100
Stirrup Cup is a modest performer who arrives in decent form after a win last time and has won at this trip three times from 17 starts. He has also won here from four runs at Hamilton and the yard and jockey both have a solid 14% strike rate at the track. The one negative is his record on good to soft ground where he is yet to place from three starts. David Allan takes the ride for Tim Easterby, whose record at the venue reads 14% from 615 runs, while the jockey himself posts a 14% strike rate from 458 rides here. Recent form of 8-2391 underlines that he is in reasonable order heading into this assignment. From draw six he should be able to secure a handy position in a race where being on the speed looks advantageous.
Pop Star KTB Fit 57/100
Pop Star is a modest performer who has been out of form for most of this year but showed a bit more when winning a similar race at Musselburgh last time. He has been placed here without winning in four runs and his sole start on good to soft ground brought no joy. Trainer and jockey both hold a 12% strike rate at Hamilton. Andrew Mullen partners the six-year-old for Iain Jardine, with the yard recording 12% from 619 runs at the track and the jockey 12% from 617 rides. Recent form figures of 000014 reflect that upward turn at Musselburgh. Drawn in three, he is another who should be prominent early in a race that could be run at a sound gallop.
Catalyse KTB Fit 55/100
Catalyse is a modest performer who won over this trip on his only previous visit to Hamilton. Has not fired in three starts this year though and was well held when last seen over 7f. Drops back in trip with a 7lb claimer aboard but his record on good to soft is poor. Jake Dickson claims 7lb for Jim Goldie, whose 10% strike rate at the venue comes from a large sample of 1619 runs, while the jockey has shown a 13% strike rate from eight rides here. The drop in class is a positive, yet the lack of recent spark and surface concerns remain. From draw seven he may have to work to get a good early position.
Annie Edson Taylor KTB Fit 54/100
Annie Edson Taylor is a modest performer who won over this trip here last season and has placed on good to soft ground. Recent form has been patchy but the return to Hamilton looks a plus given her record at the track. Trainer and jockey both have solid strike rates here though neither sets the pulse racing. Sam James rides for Phillip Makin, with the yard showing a 15% strike rate from 68 runs at Hamilton and the jockey 13% from 223 rides. Her form of 60-461 indicates she can still be competitive at this level on her day. Drawn widest in eight, she will need to be switched on quickly if the pace is strong up front.
The rest of the field
Iris DancerKTB Fit 52/100
Iris Dancer is a modest performer who knows this place well and has won eight times from 25 starts at Hamilton. He has won on good to soft ground and at this trip, and his recent form of 204061 shows he can still be competitive at this level. The trainer has a solid 19% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 13%.
MaldeviousKTB Fit 48/100
Maldevious is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form at best this year, finishing no better than fourth in four starts. He has never won in ten runs and remains unproven on good to soft ground while the trainer’s modest record at Hamilton adds little confidence. The jockey has a solid strike rate here but that is the main positive in an otherwise limited profile.
Emperor's SonKTB Fit 46/100
Emperor's Son is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par in his last two starts. He has placed on good to soft ground and at today's trip without winning either, and the yard's modest record here adds no confidence. First time at Hamilton for a horse with 21 runs elsewhere.
Doon The GlenKTB Fit 44/100
Doon The Glen is a limited performer who has shown enough at this track to win once from four runs and also has a win and two places from three starts on good to soft. He has won at this trip though his overall strike rate is modest and recent form has been patchy. The yard posts a 10% strike rate here from a large sample while Amie Waugh has a 9% record from 111 rides at Hamilton.
KTB verdict
Stirrup Cup looks to hold the best balance of current form, course winning form and trainer-jockey statistics at Hamilton. His recent success and three wins at this trip give him solid claims in a race where his prominent run-style should serve him well. Iris Dancer, with eight course wins, and Pop Star, buoyed by his Musselburgh victory, are the most obvious dangers, while Catalyse and Annie Edson Taylor cannot be entirely ruled out on their Hamilton records.
KTB Selection Stirrup Cup
This is the narrative read of the 4:02 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest Hamilton course record?
Iris Dancer has won eight times from 25 starts at Hamilton.
How many wins has Stirrup Cup recorded at this trip?
Stirrup Cup has won at this trip three times from 17 starts.
Which runners have previous wins at Hamilton?
Stirrup Cup, Catalyse, Annie Edson Taylor, Iris Dancer and Doon The Glen have all won at Hamilton.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at the track?
Tristan Davidson has a 19% strike rate at Hamilton from 79 runs.
Which horse is unproven on good to soft ground?
Maldevious has no runs on good to soft and remains unproven on the ground.
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