4:05 Ascot
This Class 2 Sodexo Live! Handicap over 1m3f211y at Ascot on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of nine where the KTB Fit ratings suggest a competitive but not impossible puzzle. Theory Of Tides heads the KTB figures on 68 with solid recent efforts at the track, while Al Azd, Merveilleux Lapin and French Duke complete the principals on 65, 59 and 57 respectively. The remaining runners sit between 54 and 40, with several carrying either first-time headgear or questions over trip, ground or track record that shape their prospects.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence because there is not enough run-style evidence across the field to read the race with any certainty. Several runners have flexible profiles or limited data, so it is difficult to predict whether the race will be truly run or played out at a steady gallop. The key question is whether the lack of an obvious pace setter allows a prominent racer or a well-timed closer to gain the decisive advantage in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Theory Of Tides KTB Selection68/100Useful performer who ran well when second at this track over 1m2f on his latest start.
- 2Al Azd65/100Useful performer who has run to a good level on several occasions this year and finished a solid second over this course and trip on his only visit to Ascot.
- 3Merveilleux Lapin59/100Useful performer who has shown steady progress in four runs this year and finished a solid second at this track last time.
- 4French Duke57/100Useful performer who has run four times at Ascot without winning but has been placed once.
- 5Fantasy Believer54/100Useful performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and arrives in reasonable form after a fifth last time.
- 6Flying Frontier49/100Useful performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning since last year.
- 7Study Of Words49/100Useful performer who has shown steady progress and ran respectably when fifth over this course and distance on his most recent start.
- 8Dancing In Paris48/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 9Elsass40/100Fair performer who has shown useful form this year with two wins but has failed to land a blow in two starts since.
The contenders
Theory Of Tides KTB Fit 68/100
Theory Of Tides is a useful performer who ran well when second at this track over 1m2f on his latest start. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, though his sole previous run here was poor. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample. Saffie Osborne takes the ride for her father Jamie Osborne, whose combined record with the jockey reads 114 wins from 970 rides at 12% with an A/E of 0.92. He is placed once from two starts on good to firm and comes into the race with recent form figures of 0/42-2. Drawn in stall 9, he is the KTB Selection.
Al Azd KTB Fit 65/100
Al Azd is a useful performer who has run to a good level on several occasions this year and finished a solid second over this course and trip on his only visit to Ascot. He has won on good to firm ground and at today's distance, though his recent form has been a bit up and down. First-time headgear is now applied. Roger Varian's 12% strike rate at the track from 480 runners is respectable, and Ray Dawson has a 10% strike rate here from 87 rides. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 221162 and is placed once from two runs on good to firm. His sole Ascot run produced a placing.
Merveilleux Lapin KTB Fit 59/100
Merveilleux Lapin is a useful performer who has shown steady progress in four runs this year and finished a solid second at this track last time. The longer trip is an unknown at this stage and the lightly-raced profile means the going remains untested. Owen Burrows has a strong 17% strike rate from 105 runs at Ascot while Callum Rodriguez has a 9% strike rate here from 56 rides. The four-year-old is dropping in class and arrives with recent form figures of 530-24. He is placed once from one run on good to firm and has no previous course form beyond that last outing.
French Duke KTB Fit 57/100
French Duke is a useful performer who has run four times at Ascot without winning but has been placed once. He has won on good to firm and at today's trip, though his recent form is mixed. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard's modest strike rate at the track offers no strong pointer. James Doyle rides for Hamad Al Jehani; the jockey has an 11% strike rate at Ascot from 629 rides. The five-year-old has recent form figures of 03-160 and is one from five on good to firm with two placings. Drawn in stall 1, he has course form that reads 11th, 8th, 2nd and 6th.
The rest of the field
Fantasy BelieverKTB Fit 54/100
Fantasy Believer is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and arrives in reasonable form after a fifth last time. He steps up in trip today having only tried this distance once before without success, which asks a fresh question at age nine. Ed Walker has a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 251 runs and Oisin Murphy takes the mount.
Flying FrontierKTB Fit 49/100
Flying Frontier is a useful performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning since last year. First run at Ascot and stepping up in trip for the first time today both pose fresh questions. James Tate has an 8% strike rate at the track from 80 runs.
Study Of WordsKTB Fit 49/100
Study Of Words is a useful performer who has shown steady progress and ran respectably when fifth over this course and distance on his most recent start. He drops back in trip from 1m6f which poses a fresh question. Charlie Appleby has a 15% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample.
Dancing In ParisKTB Fit 48/100
Dancing In Paris is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He has been well below form on his last two starts and is 0-7 on good to firm ground. Ian Williams has a 9% strike rate here from 390 runs.
ElsassKTB Fit 40/100
Elsass is a fair performer who has shown useful form this year with two wins but has failed to land a blow in two starts since. Placed once from three runs on good to firm so the ground is no problem though he remains winless in three attempts at this trip. Charlie Johnston has a modest 4% strike rate at Ascot from 85 runs. He is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Theory Of Tides is the KTB Selection. He ran well when second at this track over 1m2f on his latest start and steps up in trip having already won over the distance, with the yard holding a solid record at Ascot. The selection looks to have the best blend of proven ability at the venue and current form. Main dangers are Al Azd, who has already shown strong form over course and distance and now tries first-time headgear, and Merveilleux Lapin, who is progressing nicely and was second here last time out. French Duke cannot be entirely dismissed with the booking of James Doyle and the addition of headgear.
KTB Selection Theory Of Tides
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Theory Of Tides | 17/2 | 7Bet |
| Al Azd | 11/10 | LiveScore Bet |
| Merveilleux Lapin | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| French Duke | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Fantasy Believer | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Flying Frontier | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Study Of Words | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Dancing In Paris | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Elsass | 14/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest Ascot trainer record among the principals?
Owen Burrows has a 17% strike rate at Ascot from 105 runs with Merveilleux Lapin.
How many wins has Fantasy Believer recorded at Ascot?
Fantasy Believer has won twice at this track from five runs.
What is the recent form of the KTB Selection?
Theory Of Tides has recent form figures of 0/42-2.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Al Azd and French Duke are both wearing first-time headgear.
What trip question does Study Of Words face?
Study Of Words drops back in trip from 1m6f which poses a fresh question.
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