4:05 Stratford
This Class 5 conditional jockeys' selling handicap hurdle at Stratford over 2m2f148y on good ground features a small but competitive field of seven. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Pigeon House heading the list on 60, followed closely by Mountain Port on 58 and a pair on 53. With a dropping-in-class angle for a couple and several horses tackling new distances, the race looks open on paper though the authoritative pace shape points to one horse having a relatively straightforward lead.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting Pigeon House will be allowed an uncontested lead from the front. The remaining runners are predominantly held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late, with one mid-division runner in behind. This sets up a key question of whether the clear front-runner can dictate matters and prove hard to peg back by the closers in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Pigeon House KTB Selection60/100
Pigeon House is a smart performer who has been a regular on the scene for years and showed useful form when runner-up on his penultimate start. He steps up in trip today having failed to complete on his last two outings and makes his first appearance at Stratford. The yard has a solid record here with a 21% strike rate and A/E 1.13 from 24 runs but the jockey is operating below the track average with a 5% strike rate and A/E 0.37 from 19 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence which aligns perfectly with the race's lone-leader shape. A drop in class is another plus while he holds an official rating that keeps him competitive. His record on good ground reads one win from ten starts with five places.
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2Mountain Port58/100
Mountain Port is a useful performer who arrives on the back of a poor run at this level. He has never placed on good ground from five attempts and steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both hold solid strike rates at Stratford, the yard recording 18% with an A/E 1.19 from 28 runs and the rider 27% with an A/E 1.55 from 15 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be looking to come from off the pace set by the likely leader. His overall profile suggests he needs to bounce back from recent efforts to figure prominently.
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3Mojo Ego53/100
Mojo Ego is a useful performer who has won twice on good ground from ten starts and arrives in decent nick after a solid third last time. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer holds a 15% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E 0.79 from 268 runs while the jockey is operating at 20% with an A/E 1.65 from 20 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead up front. Recent form figures of -76163 underline that he is competitive at this level when on song.
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4At The Oche53/100
At The Oche is a smart performer who arrives in good order after a string of placed efforts and a recent win before being brought down last time. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which poses a fresh question. Skelton has a solid 23% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E 0.88 from 368 runs while Atkins is less proven with only eight rides here at a 13% strike rate and A/E 0.47. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be aiming to come from off the pace. His record on good ground is strong with three wins from nine starts and six places, and a drop in class is in his favour.
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5Chillhi49/100
Chillhi is a fair performer who won on his only previous visit to Stratford and has also won at today's trip. Recent form has been poor with two pulled-ups but the drop back from 2m5f looks a plus and the jockey's solid record here is another positive. The trainer's modest strike-rate at the track is a concern.
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6Versatile49/100
Versatile is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and overall history. He ran respectably when fourth over course and distance in the past though his recent form has been patchy and he steps up markedly in trip today. The trainer holds a solid 20% strike rate at Stratford while the jockey has an above-average record at the track from a small sample.
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7Raffles Nobu39/100
Raffles Nobu is a fair performer with solid recent form that includes a win and three placed efforts from his last six starts. He has course experience here having finished second on his only visit to Stratford and steps up slightly in trip today having already won at this distance. The trainer holds a modest 10% strike rate at the track while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
KTB verdict
Pigeon House is the KTB Selection. His proven ability as a smart performer, allied to a front-running style that should hand him an uncontested lead in a race with a lone-leader pace shape, makes him the one to beat. A drop in class further strengthens his position even if the step up in trip and first run at Stratford ask questions. The main dangers are likely to come from At The Oche, who arrives in good order for a top yard, and Mojo Ego, who has shown consistent form on good ground. Mountain Port cannot be entirely dismissed if he can bounce back from a poor run.
KTB Selection Pigeon House
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Pigeon House | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Mountain Port | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Mojo Ego | 9/4 | 7Bet |
| At The Oche | 6/4 | 7Bet |
| Chillhi | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Versatile | 15/2 | 7Bet |
| Raffles Nobu | 9/2 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Stratford results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Pigeon House, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence in a lone-leader pace shape.
How many horses in the field are stepping up or down in trip for the first time?
Four horses are stepping up in trip for the first time while one is dropping back in trip to a distance he has never tried.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Stratford in this race?
Dan Skelton with a 23% strike rate from 368 runs.
Which runner has course-and-distance experience at Stratford?
Versatile ran fourth over course and distance in the past while Raffles Nobu has course experience having finished second here.
Who has the best jockey record at Stratford among the conditional riders?
Robbie David with a 27% strike rate and A/E 1.55 from 15 rides.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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