4:07 Navan
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race over 1m2f40y at Navan brings together a compact but competitive field of five three-year-olds on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Summer Is Tomorrow narrowly heading the numbers on 54, followed closely by South Island on 52 and Confused on 51, while the remaining pair sit on 48 and 40. Recent form is mixed, with most of the runners unproven on the surface and several without prior experience at the venue, adding layers of uncertainty to an already intriguing contest.
How the race shapes up
With five runners and no pronounced front-runner identified, the pace shape looks likely to be even or on the steady side. Summer Is Tomorrow and Confused can both take a keen hold, while South Island and Mo Mhuirin are noted as prominent types; Hard Promises is more patiently ridden. The key question is whether the race develops into a true test or remains tactical, with the ability to settle and quicken off a steady gallop likely to prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Summer Is Tomorrow KTB Selection54/100
- 2South Island52/100
- 3Confused51/100
- 4Hard Promises48/100
- 5Mo Mhuirin40/100
The contenders
Summer Is Tomorrow KTB Fit 54/100
Summer Is Tomorrow tops the KTB Fit ratings on 54 and is the clear selection. This Joseph Patrick O'Brien-trained colt showed his best effort when second last time out, building on a solid placed effort the run before. The first-time headgear is now applied as he steps up in trip, which could help him settle better given his tendency to take a keen hold. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.79, while jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle posts a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.87. He remains unproven on good to firm and has only run once at the course, finishing ninth, yet he holds the strongest KTB rating in a race where his prominent style should see him involved throughout.
South Island KTB Fit 52/100
South Island sits just behind on a KTB Fit of 52 and brings solid placed form from this season. Trained by Donnacha Aidan O'Brien, he has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.88, though the booking of Paddy Harnett, who has a modest 2% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.2, tempers some of that optimism. Like most of his rivals he is unproven on good to firm and has no course form on record. His prominent run-style should see him well placed in what is expected to be an even-paced affair, and he enters calculations as a major player on the KTB numbers.
Confused KTB Fit 51/100
Confused carries a KTB Fit of 51 and arrives with the benefit of only four career starts, including a win and a subsequent placed effort. Mrs John Harrington's record at Navan shows an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.85, while Keithen Kennedy has a 10% strike rate here with a strong A/E of 1.46 from limited rides. He too is unproven on good to firm and has no previous course experience. His ability to take a keen hold could be a factor in an even-paced race, yet the scope he possesses and the positive jockey read keep him firmly in the mix among the leading contenders.
The rest of the field
Hard PromisesKTB Fit 48/100
Hard Promises has a KTB Fit of 48 and showed promise when third on debut. The A Oliver-trained colt is unproven on good to firm and has no course form, while the trainer's 8% strike rate at Navan comes with an A/E of 1.04. Ben Coen has a 9% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.79. His patient run-style means he will be looking to come from off the pace in what could be a steadily run contest.
Mo MhuirinKTB Fit 40/100
Mo Mhuirin is rated 40 on KTB Fit and has placed efforts to his name this term following a win last season. Andrew Slattery trains and rides, with the yard recording a 7% strike rate at Navan and an A/E of 0.76. The jockey's record here is 5% with an A/E of 0.66. Unproven on good to firm and without course form, his prominent run-style should keep him on the speed but he looks the lowest rated of the quintet on the KTB figures.
KTB verdict
Summer Is Tomorrow emerges as the KTB Selection at the head of a very tight set of ratings. His most recent second places him ahead of the rest on balance, and the first-time headgear may help him settle and see out the longer trip effectively. South Island and Confused are the most obvious dangers, both closely rated and with scope to improve further, while the race shape should suit those who can quicken off a steady gallop. This looks a race where the principals are set to dominate, with Summer Is Tomorrow holding the narrowest call on current KTB assessment.
KTB Selection Summer Is Tomorrow
This is the narrative read of the 4:07 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to firm yet tops the KTB Fit ratings?
Summer Is Tomorrow heads the KTB Fit on 54 and has had no runs on good to firm.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Navan for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.79.
Which runner is the only one to have previous form at Navan?
Summer Is Tomorrow has run once here, finishing ninth.
How does the jockey booking for South Island read at this track?
Paddy Harnett has a 2% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.2.
Which horse in the field is noted as a patient runner?
Hard Promises is more patiently ridden.
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