4:10 Goodwood
This Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap over the minimum trip at Goodwood brings together a maximum field of 24 in a Class 2 event on good ground. The KTB numbers highlight a competitive but open-looking race in which course form, draw and the ability to handle the surface will be key. Tatterstall tops the Fit ratings at 69 while a cluster of principals sit between 61 and 63, suggesting the race will be decided by a handful of runners with solid recent records at the trip or track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with only thin evidence of an obvious front-runner. Toca Madera and Reigning Profit are the types to race prominently or make the running, though both do so on limited evidence. Several principals including Jasour, Run Boy Run, Ziggy's Triton, Spring Is Sprung and Regal Envoy tend to be held up and produce their efforts late, which could leave the race vulnerable to a well-timed challenge from off the pace. The key question is whether the early gallop will be strong enough to suit those coming from behind or whether the prominent runners can dictate matters on a track where the draw can also play a part.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tatterstall KTB Selection69/100Tatterstall is a fair performer who has won both here and at today's trip.
- 2Germanic63/100Useful performer who has won over this trip.
- 3Jasour62/100Useful performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing no worse than sixth in his last five starts.
- 4Glamorous Breeze61/100Glamorous Breeze is a fair performer who has won over this trip ten times from 49 starts and also landed a race here from four visits.
- 5Lexington Blitz61/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just one visit.
- 6Vintage Clarets59/100Vintage Clarets is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 7Adrestia59/100Useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here on her only visit.
- 8Run Boy Run58/100Useful performer who has run well at this track before when finishing fourth.
- 9Toca Madera57/100Toca Madera is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this trip, winning twice from 21 starts, and he has been competitive on good ground with two pl…
- 10Ziggy's Triton55/100Ziggy's Triton is a fair performer who has won six times from 27 starts including at this trip.
- 11Reigning Profit54/100Reigning Profit is a fair performer who has won six times over this trip but arrives in modest recent form and was well beaten when he tried this track as a fiv…
- 12Dyonisos53/100Fair performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here on his penultimate start.
- 13Spring Is Sprung51/100Spring Is Sprung is a fair handicapper who has been competitive at this level without winning for some time.
- 14Exclamation51/100Useful performer who has won twice this year including at this trip.
- 15Twilight Calls50/100Useful performer who has won four times at this trip but arrives in modest form and has never won or placed in two runs at Goodwood.
- 16Desert Cop49/100Useful performer who has run twice here without placing.
- 17Candy49/100Useful performer who has dropped to a mark that looks workable on his best efforts.
- 18Naana's Sparkle49/100Naana's Sparkle is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip and took this track when successful last year.
- 19Regal Envoy48/100Regal Envoy is a useful performer who has won ten times at this trip and handles good ground well with four wins from 15 starts.
- 20Democracy Dilemma48/100Useful performer who has won eight times at this trip but has been out of form for a while with a string of modest efforts.
- 21Seven Questions48/100Fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 22Rapper's Delight47/100Rapper's Delight is a fair performer who has been competitive at this trip, winning once from four starts, and has shown enough on good ground to place once fro…
- 23The Man45/100Useful performer on his day but has been well below form in all four starts this season and looks in need of a revival.
- 24Wheels Of Fire44/100Wheels Of Fire is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at Goodwood, finishing third twice and fourth once from four runs here.
The contenders
Tatterstall KTB Fit 69/100
Tatterstall is a fair performer who has won both at this track and over today's 5f trip. He arrives in decent nick with three placed efforts from his last five starts and holds a strong course record of one win from one run. The yard fires at a 15% strike-rate at Goodwood while he has won once and placed four times from seven runs on good ground. Stepping up in class from a middle draw of 13, the Michael Dods-trained six-year-old is expected to go well again under Connor Beasley, whose own Goodwood figures read well. Recent form of 00-325 underlines his consistency at this level.
Germanic KTB Fit 63/100
Germanic is a useful performer who has won over this trip. He showed good pace when winning last time but his only run here was poor and he is yet to place on good ground. Trainer has a solid record at Goodwood but this looks a tough ask from stall 14. The Julie Camacho-trained five-year-old has recent form figures of 601-91 that include two wins in the last year yet the combination of the wide draw, lack of course placings and surface record leave him with questions to answer. Ryan Sexton takes the ride.
Jasour KTB Fit 62/100
Jasour is a useful performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing no worse than sixth in his last five starts. He drops back to 5f today where he has won once from five attempts, though the first-time headgear is an unknown and he has only placed once from seven runs on good ground. The Clive Cox-trained five-year-old makes his first visit to Goodwood from the inside draw of one and is likely to be held up, producing his effort late. Trainer and jockey figures at the track are modest but the drop in class may help him become competitive again under P J McDonald.
Glamorous Breeze KTB Fit 61/100
Glamorous Breeze is a fair performer who has won over this trip ten times from 49 starts and also landed a race here from four visits. She has four wins from 23 runs on good ground and the yard posts a solid 19% strike-rate at Goodwood. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse that has been placed in three of her last four starts. The Christopher Mason-trained eight-year-old brings recent form of 13-325 and a course win to the table from draw 12. Gina Mangan is aboard and both trainer and jockey have respectable records at the venue.
Lexington Blitz KTB Fit 61/100
Lexington Blitz is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just one visit. Three placed efforts from nine runs on good ground show consistency on today's surface, though the yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Goodwood tempers expectations. First-time headgear is an unknown on a horse with a solid recent record. The Robert Cowell-trained four-year-old has form figures of 19-313 and a winning course visit already under his belt from a favourable draw of five. Edward Greatrex takes the mount.
The rest of the field
Vintage ClaretsKTB Fit 59/100
Vintage Clarets is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has run twice at Goodwood without placing and his record on good ground is modest with just one win from twelve starts. The yard has no runners recorded at this track.
AdrestiaKTB Fit 59/100
Adrestia is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here on her only visit. She has won over today's trip and handles good ground, though her recent form has been patchy with three modest efforts this season. First-time headgear is now added while the Crisford yard and Murphy both hold solid records at Goodwood.
Run Boy RunKTB Fit 58/100
Run Boy Run is a useful performer who has run well at this track before when finishing fourth. He has won over today's trip and acts on good ground though his recent form is patchy. First-time headgear is now tried while the wide draw adds another question.
Toca MaderaKTB Fit 57/100
Toca Madera is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this trip, winning twice from 21 starts, and he has been competitive on good ground with two placed efforts from eight runs. He has placed twice from three starts at Goodwood without winning, and his recent form of 703160 suggests he remains capable at this level on his best days. The trainer has an 11 percent strike rate from 196 runs here while the jockey also knows the track well.
Ziggy's TritonKTB Fit 55/100
Ziggy's Triton is a fair performer who has won six times from 27 starts including at this trip. He has shown a mixed bag lately with a 107071 record over the last year and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard holds an 11 percent strike rate at Goodwood from 196 runs while he has two wins and three places from seven runs on good ground.
Reigning ProfitKTB Fit 54/100
Reigning Profit is a fair performer who has won six times over this trip but arrives in modest recent form and was well beaten when he tried this track as a five-year-old. He handles good ground and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition given his exposed profile. Trainer Ruth Carr has an 11% strike rate from 18 runs at Goodwood while jockey Andrew Mullen is 0-8 here.
DyonisosKTB Fit 53/100
Dyonisos is a fair performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here on his penultimate start. Consistent on good ground without winning and has a win at today's trip to his name from nine attempts. Trainer Ian Williams has a solid 10% strike rate at Goodwood from 187 runs while Cieren Fallon is yet to score from only five rides at the course.
Spring Is SprungKTB Fit 51/100
Spring Is Sprung is a fair handicapper who has been competitive at this level without winning for some time. He has a solid record at today's trip with seven wins from 32 starts and has handled good ground well enough with two wins and four places from 13 attempts. The trainer's 0% strike rate from 24 runs at Goodwood is a clear negative though the horse's own course debut is simply unknown rather than a weakness.
ExclamationKTB Fit 51/100
Exclamation is a useful performer who has won twice this year including at this trip. First time headgear is now tried after a string of ordinary efforts and the wide draw in a big field adds difficulty. Trainer has yet to strike at this track from eight previous runners.
Twilight CallsKTB Fit 50/100
Twilight Calls is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip but arrives in modest form and has never won or placed in two runs at Goodwood. First-time headgear is a possible plus yet the wide draw in stall 19 looks a clear negative on this track. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate here adds to the reservations.
Desert CopKTB Fit 49/100
Desert Cop is a useful performer who has run twice here without placing. Drops back to 5f today having won at the trip earlier in his career, though his recent form is patchy and he now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate at Goodwood is backed by a big sample.
CandyKTB Fit 49/100
Candy is a useful performer who has dropped to a mark that looks workable on his best efforts. He has won on good ground and is effective over this trip even though he is yet to score at it. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at the track from 37 runs.
Naana's SparkleKTB Fit 49/100
Naana's Sparkle is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip and took this track when successful last year. She has shown enough on good ground to stay competitive without winning on it and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. The yard's tiny sample at Goodwood means her recent 1-4-1 record has to stand on its own.
Regal EnvoyKTB Fit 48/100
Regal Envoy is a useful performer who has won ten times at this trip and handles good ground well with four wins from 15 starts. He has been below form in both previous runs at Goodwood and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution.
Democracy DilemmaKTB Fit 48/100
Democracy Dilemma is a useful performer who has won eight times at this trip but has been out of form for a while with a string of modest efforts. Has run twice at Goodwood without placing and the trainer's modest 7% strike rate here adds little encouragement. First-time headgear is now reached for on good ground where he has shown some ability in the past.
Seven QuestionsKTB Fit 48/100
Seven Questions is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is mixed with a win and a seventh from his last six starts while the wide draw in stall 16 looks far from ideal. Trainer has a modest 7% strike rate here from a big sample and the jockey is 0 from 2 at the course.
Rapper's DelightKTB Fit 47/100
Rapper's Delight is a fair performer who has been competitive at this trip, winning once from four starts, and has shown enough on good ground to place once from three runs. The first-time headgear is now applied after a string of placed efforts in recent races. Trainer Richard Spencer has a modest 5% strike rate from 37 runs at Goodwood while jockey George Wood is making his first ride at the track.
The ManKTB Fit 45/100
The Man is a useful performer on his day but has been well below form in all four starts this season and looks in need of a revival. Only one run at Goodwood and it was poor, while three efforts on good ground have also failed to produce a win or place. First-time headgear is now reached for as he drops back to a trip he has won over twice.
Wheels Of FireKTB Fit 44/100
Wheels Of Fire is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at Goodwood, finishing third twice and fourth once from four runs here. He has won twice at this trip overall and handles good ground, though his recent form of 010647 suggests he can be inconsistent. The trainer holds an 11% strike rate at the track from 777 runs while Silvestre De Sousa has a solid 15% record here from 173 rides.
KTB verdict
Tatterstall stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer with wins over course and distance, he arrives in decent nick, boasts a perfect one-from-one record at Goodwood and is backed by positive trainer and going stats. The selection has been placed in three of his last five starts and the combination of course form, surface ability and yard record at the venue make him the one to beat. Main dangers include Glamorous Breeze, who has won here and brings strong sprint stats, Lexington Blitz with his course win and recent consistency, and Jasour who drops in class and trip from a good draw. Germanic and Adrestia are others who cannot be ruled out on their best days.
KTB Selection Tatterstall
This is the narrative read of the 4:10 Goodwood. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Goodwood racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record among the principals?
Tatterstall has a perfect one win from one run at Goodwood while Glamorous Breeze and Lexington Blitz have also won here.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Three of the top five principals are wearing first-time headgear: Jasour, Glamorous Breeze and Lexington Blitz.
Which horse is stepping up in class from the top of the Fit ratings?
Tatterstall is stepping up in class.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Goodwood among the principals?
Connor Beasley has a 24% strike rate at Goodwood with an A/E of 2.96 from 17 rides when riding for Michael Dods.
What is the pace shape and how many held-up runners are there among the principals?
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence. Among the principals Jasour, and several in the wider field, are held up, while Toca Madera and Reigning Profit tend to race prominently.
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